This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week's main event, as it is one of the most significant parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report remains robust in April, but there could be surprises on the downside. Traders should pay special attention to the Fed interest rate decision and the FOMC Statement. Investors will be waiting for indications that the Fed still expects to cut interest rates at some point this year. Also, this week, the Norges Bank will make monetary policy decisions. Investors should also closely monitor the inflation data for the Eurozone and Switzerland. Inflation in the EU area is expected to remain flat, while in Switzerland, consumer prices are expected to decline further.
Monday, April 29
On Monday, investors' primary focus will be on German inflation data. Inflation is expected to fall to 2.2%, a dovish sign for ECB policy. It's a bank holiday in Japan.
Main events of the day:
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, April 30
The main report on Tuesday will be the Eurozone consumer price index data. Inflation is expected to remain at approximately the same level, but there may be surprises in both upward and downward directions. Also, investors should focus on the GDP data for the Eurozone and Canada. As a rule, GDP growth above expectations is accompanied by strengthening the national currency and vice versa. Market watchers will also be watching China's April manufacturing data for signs that the long-awaited recovery of the world's second-largest economy is gaining momentum. This indicator has a strong influence on Asian indices.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 01
Even though May 1 will be a bank holiday in many countries (Eurozone, Norway, Switzerland, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, and the United Kingdom), Wednesday will still be busy regarding economic events. Particular attention should be paid to the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. It is expected that rates will not change at the current meeting, so investors will wait for the FOMC conference to hear further plans and prospects for the first rate cut. It is also worth paying attention to New Zealand's unemployment data and US JOLTs job openings data, which will hint at what kind of Nonfarm report to expect on Friday. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which significantly impacts oil prices, should also focus.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 00:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 04:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 23:15 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 02
On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the inflation data in Switzerland. According to preliminary data, inflation in the country will fall to 1%, allowing the Swiss Bank (SNB) to cut rates further at the next meeting. This may temporarily negatively impact the Swiss franc (CHF). Also, on Thursday, traders should analyze the trade balance data, which indirectly affects the exchange rate but may cause a sharp spike in volatility. It's a bank holiday in Japan. It's a bank holiday in China.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 03
The most critical Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. A strong labor market is needed for the Fed to keep rates at current levels longer. Therefore, weak data is likely to cause the dollar to sell off. Traders should also closely monitor the Norges Bank Interest Rate Decisions. The rate is expected to remain at 4.5%, and the vital question remains when the NB will talk about lowering rates. Volatility on currency pairs with NOK will be elevated.
Main events of the day:
- – Norwegian NB Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2024.04.29
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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