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At Thursday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.64%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.82%. Stocks and indices extended Wednesday's losses yesterday as the hawkish tone of Wednesday's FOMC meeting dampened global risk sentiment. Stock index futures added to their losses after weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low, indicating a strengthening labor market and a hawkish tone for Fed policy.
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At Wednesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.94%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.46%. Stocks declined after the US Federal Reserve took another pause but signaled that interest rates will still be rising. Policymakers said another 25 bps rate hike is likely this year, and the FOMC dot plot showed that the target for the federal funds rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 50 bps higher than forecast in June. The Fed's hawkish stance drove the 10-year T bond yield to a 16-year high and sent stocks and stock indexes tumbling.
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Canadian inflation accelerated more than expected for the second consecutive month. The Consumer Price Index rose from 3.3% to 4% y/y in August, the fastest pace since April. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) rose slightly to 3.3% from 3.2%. The three-month moving average of indicators the Bank of Canada cited as key to its team rose a full percentage point to 4.49% on an annualized basis, according to Bloomberg calculations. Investors raised bets that Canada's Central Bank will resume policy tightening and hold another rate hike at its October meeting.
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At the close of the stock exchange on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Monday at its opening price. Stock indices were down on Monday due to caution ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets fully expect the FOMC to leave the main rate target unchanged at 5.5% (99% probability) this week. However, the FOMC is expected to maintain a hawkish tone and remain open to one last rate hike, as inflation and the economy have not slowed enough yet.
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The US dollar came under pressure on Friday after reports from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations fell more than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations for September unexpectedly fell to a .5-year low of 3.1%, better than expectations of 3.5%. The University of Michigan's US Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell by 1.8 to 67.7, weaker than expectations of 69.0. Other data showed that US manufacturing output for August rose by 0.1% m/m, in line with expectations. Industrial production rose by 0.4% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m.
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Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims rose by 3,000 to 220,000 from expectations of 5,000, indicating a stronger than expected labor market. The data boosted equities and reinforced the assumption that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the US economy. The US goods and services price index for August accelerated to 1.6% y/y from 0.8% y/y in July, the highest reading in 4 months and slightly stronger than expectations of 1.3% y/y. US retail sales for August rose by 0.6% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m. The probability of a rate hike by the US Fed has decreased further. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 2% and a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 35%.
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Moderna (MRNA) rose more than 6% yesterday, leading gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stocks after it reported that a modified version of its flu shot met key targets in a late-stage trial, paving the way for FDA approval of the vaccine. Ford Motor (F) shares are up more than 2% after UBS upgraded them to a "buy" rating with a $15 price target. General Motors (GM) shares added nearly 1% after UBS upgraded their rating to "buy" from "neutral" with a $44 price target.
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At Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.05%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.57%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.04%. Weakness in technology stocks had a negative impact on the overall market. For example, Oracle closed down more than 13% after reporting lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings due to a slowdown in cloud sales. According to Morgan Stanley, Oracle's results raise questions about the timing of artificial intelligence (AI) demand turning into revenue for the company. In addition, Apple shares were down more than 1% after introducing the iPhone 15 lineup.
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As of Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.25%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.14% on Monday. Strengthening tech stocks provided support to the overall market yesterday. Tesla shares rose more than 7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded their rating. Additionally, Qualcomm shares were up more than 3% after Apple extended its contract with the company to supply semiconductor chips for modems for another three years.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22% (-0.86% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14% (-1.61% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.09% on Friday (-2.61% for the week). Strengthening crude oil prices on Friday boosted energy stocks and the broader market. Stocks also received support as the likelihood grew regarding a pause in Fed rate hikes amid comments from Dallas FRB Governor Lorie Logan, who stated the following: "Another pass at raising interest rates may be appropriate at the FOMC meeting later this month." Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 7% and a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 48%.
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As of Thursday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.17%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.32%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.89% yesterday. The broader market was under pressure yesterday due to weakness in technology stocks. Apple (AAPL) stock prices fell again by more than 3% yesterday amid a Wall Street Journal report that China plans to extend its iPhone ban to government agencies and state-owned companies. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, complementing Wednesday's 2% drop after Research Affiliates said the stock is "a textbook story of a Big Market Delusion," and with the stock trading at 110 times earnings, the stock is off the charts.
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US economic news on Wednesday provided support for the US dollar after the ISM Services Business Activity Index for August unexpectedly rose by 1.8 to a 6-month high of 54.5, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to 52.5. In addition, the trade deficit widened to $65.0 bln. in July from $63.7 bln. in June, less than expectations of $68.0 bln. Comments from Fed President Boston Collins on Wednesday were somewhat hawkish and lent support to the dollar when she said it was "too early" to say inflation was on a steady path toward 2% and further tightening could be warranted depending on the data. She added that the Fed "will have to keep rates at restrictive levels for some time" as, although demand is easing, it continues to outpace supply, adding to price pressures. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 8% and a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 54%.
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Economic news from the US on Tuesday provided support for the dollar after factory orders fell by 2.1% m/m in July, the biggest decline in 8 months, but stronger than expectations of a 2.5% m/m decline. FOMC representative Waller's comments on Tuesday were dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar as he signaled his support for a pause in Fed rate hikes. But weaker-than-expected economic news from China and the eurozone on Tuesday boosted relative optimism about the US economy and the dollar.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.33% (+1.15% for the week), the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.18% (+2.03% for the week) and rose to a 4-week high. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Friday negative by 0.02% (+2.46% for the week). Stock indices pulled back from their highs on Friday, with the Nasdaq 100 Index turning negative as technology stocks retreated after bond yields rose as the August ISM Manufacturing Activity Index rose more than expected to a 6-month high.
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The US PCE index for July, the Fed's preferred inflation index, rose by 0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y, in line with market expectations. The US core PCE deflator for July rose by 0.2% m/m and was 4.2% y/y, which was also in line with expectations. The dollar index rose by 0.45% on Thursday on the back of a strong US personal spending report (0.8% m/m), which pointed to the resilience of US consumer spending. The weekly initial jobless claims report showed a slight strengthening of the labor market. The number of claims fell by 4000 to 228,000.
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US economic news on Wednesday was mostly dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. The August ADP employment figure came in at 177,000, which was weaker than expectations of 195,000 and was the smallest gain in 5 months. Additionally, Q2 GDP was revised downward to 2.1% (q/q) from 2.4%. A bullish factor for the dollar is the unexpected 0.9% m/m rise in July home sales, which was stronger than expectations of a 1.0% m/m decline. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 11% and a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 49%.
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At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.85%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.45%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.74% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) hit a 2.5-week high, the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) hit a 1.5-week high, and the Nasdaq 100 Index hit a 3-week high. The stock indexes rose after weaker-than-expected economic news from the US on Tuesday regarding JOLTS job openings for July and consumer confidence for August, pushing bond yields lower and raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate hike campaign.
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At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.62%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.63%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.84% on Monday. Stocks rose on Monday while bond yields declined thanks to support provided by comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Powell on Friday that the Fed is prepared to continue raising interest rates if needed but "will proceed cautiously" on whether to raise rates again, opening the door for a potential pause in Fed operations. Currently, there is a 23% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting and a 67% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting.
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At Friday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.73% (-0.53% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67% (+0.58% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.94% (+1.82% for the week) on Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that policymakers are prepared to raise interest rates further if necessary but also signaled that they may keep rates at current levels in September if economic data support it.
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On Thursday, the Fed's hawkish comments were bullish for the dollar index and bearish for stock indices. FRB Boston President Collins said it will take time for inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target, and "we may need to raise rates further, and we may hold rates at restrictive levels for some time." Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said a pickup in economic activity this summer could delay the Fed's plans to end its campaign to raise interest rates, "This acceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stop the disinflation we're seeing, and instead delay the Fed's plans to change policy." Philadelphia Fed President Harker believes policymakers have likely undertaken sufficient tightening and that the Fed has "probably done enough" and believes interest rates will be steady through the year's end.
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As of Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index decreased by 0.51%, while the S&P500 (US500) index lost 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.06% yesterday. Yesterday's US economic news was mixed for stocks after July's existing home sales fell more than expected to a 6-month low. Still, the August manufacturing report from the FRB Richmond unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high. The 3-day symposium of the US central bank in Jackson Hole starts as early as tomorrow, where the main focus of investors is directed towards the speeches of US Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate hike at the September 20th FOMC meeting at 16% and a 25bp hike at the First of November FOMC meeting at 49%.
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Technology stocks rose thanks to a more than 6% rise in NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) ahead of the chipmaker's quarterly results due on Wednesday. Nvidia is riding a wave of optimism about artificial intelligence. Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) rose more than 6% as investors bought into the electric car maker's recent stock slump amid a new positive outlook from Wall Street for TSLA. Baird listed Tesla as a "best idea," noting several favorable factors, including the launch of Cybertruck, wider adoption of self-driving software, and continued growth in the energy business, that could overshadow concerns about margin erosion from recent price declines.
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The Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled to begin on Thursday of this week. Various academics, bank chiefs, and central bank governors gather to discuss monetary policy and financial markets. The policymakers will give their interviews at the end of the conference. These interviews could cause significant volatility as they could foreshadow future monetary policy dynamics. In particular, investors will be waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak to clarify the economic outlook and the future trajectory of interest rates.
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According to the FOMC minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July 25-26 meeting released Wednesday last month, most Fed officials still viewed high inflation as a persistent threat that could warrant further interest rate hikes. At the same time, officials saw some tentative signs that inflationary pressures may be easing. Most investors and economists believe the July rate hike was the last. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs economists predicted the Fed would begin cutting rates by the middle of next year.
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Stronger-than-expected consumer spending increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may resume raising rates this year. Retail sales rose by 0.7% last month (the most significant increase since the beginning of the year), above expectations of 0.4%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, bets on a Fed rate hike in November rose to 34% from 26%. But economists predict retail sales will weaken for the rest of the year as falling credit availability will weigh on economic activity and the labor market.
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On Tuesday, the US will release retail sales data for July, which is expected to show a pickup in demand early in the third quarter after a smaller-than-expected increase in June. Other data likely indicates that the manufacturing sector is still struggling, with the Empire State manufacturing index expected to fall into negative territory, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index is also expected to remain negative.
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Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Friday came in slightly higher at 0.3% in July, up from the previously revised reading of 0%. This was likely another reason why the dollar held on to its high ground at the end of the week, as the PPI index is usually a precursor to a rising CPI index as price pressures trickle down from manufacturing to the final consumer. Friday also saw the release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment data. The report showed a slight improvement in one-year inflation expectations, which fell to 3.3% from the previous reading of 3.4%. Current conditions improved, but the expectations index fell to 67.3 from 68.3.
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US inflation data came out better than expected. The overall annualized inflation rate rose from 3% to 3.2% (forecast 3.3%), while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) fell from 4.8% to 4.7% (forecast 4.8%). Year-on-year inflation rose for the first time since July 2022, and oil prices, which have risen 27% in a month and a half, will do nothing to further reduce inflation. There is a lot of uncertainty on the economic front right now, but what is clear is that the Fed plans to keep rates high. Before the September meeting of the Fed, the market will see another publication of macro statistics on the labor market and inflation, so investors are in no hurry to make bets and open new positions. Therefore, the end of August is likely to pass on lower volatility.
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At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.54%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.70%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.17% on Wednesday. Shares of chip and semiconductor companies declined, dragging down the tech sector. Investors remain wary of making bullish bets on tech companies ahead of inflation data to be released today. The annualized inflation rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.0% to 3.3%, with core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) falling from 4.8% to 4.7%. Core inflation and services inflation will be the main focus of economists.
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Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several small and mid-sized US banks and said it may downgrade some of the nation's largest lenders. The agency warned that the sector's credit strength is likely to be tested by funding risks and declining profitability. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.79% on Tuesday.
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Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) reported better-than-expected quarterly results on the back of strong results from its insurance companies, sending its share price up more than 3% on the report. Palantir (PLTR) shares were up more than 2% after the company released its second-quarter results. The company's revenue rose by 13% year-over-year to $533 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $534.21 million.
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At the close of the stock exchange on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.43% (-1.13% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.53% (-2.33% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.36% (-2.99% for the week). The weekly percentage declines for the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) were the largest since March as investors locked in profits. Rising Treasury bond yields, which are considered one of the safest investments in the world because the US government backs them, have dampened demand for stocks. Investor focus has now shifted to US inflation data this week. A decline in consumer prices could lead to more stock buying.
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The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls labor market report will be released in the United States today. Over the past year, economists have consistently underestimated the strength of the economy, leading to a repeated underestimation of employment gains. Given this pattern and forecast bias, it is reasonable to believe that the NFP numbers could surprise upward again. US stock indices continued to decline yesterday. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.19%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.25%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.10%.
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Fitch downgraded the US credit rating to AA+ from AAA due to the recent controversy over raising the national debt ceiling, the deteriorating balance of the US government budget, aggressive Fed interest rate hikes, and the continued high probability of recession. The US stock indices fell sharply yesterday on the back of strong labor market data and as Fitch Ratings downgraded the US credit rating. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.98%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 2.17% yesterday.
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The US service sector continues to perform relatively strongly, but manufacturing is struggling, as evidenced by the ninth consecutive decline of the ISM index. At the same time, residential construction is picking up due to a shortage of homes for sale, and non-residential starts are struggling due to tighter credit conditions. The US stock indices were traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. At the close of the stock exchange yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.20%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.27%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 0.43%.
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At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.28%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.21% on Monday. The Dow Jones Index closed higher for the second consecutive month. Investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle soon. But the market volatility indicator VIX, which is known in trading circles as the fear indicator, is still near this year's lows and at its lowest point since the global pandemic began in 2020. That means a correction could occur on stock indices in the near term.
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Core PCE data is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The 0.5% decline from the May reading only reinforced hopes that the Fed has likely ended the current rate hike cycle. Combined with labor costs rising at the slowest pace in two years, this may explain some of the weakness in the US Dollar late last week. There is a lot of US labor market data coming out this week, including the NFP report. This data will provide another snapshot of the state of the US economy. Average hourly earnings will again be a key indicator for the Fed, as strong wage growth has been cited as a problem in the ongoing fight against inflation.
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The latest US GDP data showed that the economy grew by 2.4% for the second quarter after growing 2.0% in the first quarter. Analysts had expected growth of 1.8%. Gross Domestic Product increased due to solid consumer spending and robust business investment. Combined with other data showing stronger than expected durable goods orders and a decline in unemployment claims, boosted confidence that the Federal Reserve can curb inflation and avoid a recession.
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The US Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps to 5.50%, the highest in 22 years. But the market was fully ready for such a decision, so there were no surprises here. The main focus of investors was directed to the FOMC press conference. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.12% on Wednesday.
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The US consumer confidence rose to a two-year high in July on the back of a continued robust labor market and lower inflation, improving the economy's near-term outlook. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117 in July from 110.1 in June. That's the highest level in two years. But consumers still fear a recession next year after the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates.
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At Monday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed up by 0.52%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.19% on Monday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) extended its daily winning streak to its eleventh consecutive gain, helped by a rally in energy. Energy stocks were supported by a rise in oil prices to an April high amid bets that OPEC supply cuts will tighten market conditions.
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At Friday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed at the opening level (+2.11% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.03% (+0.61% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.20% on Friday (-0.42% for the week). The Nasdaq's decline in recent days is attributed to the expiration of one-month options and the pending rebalancing of the multi-trillion dollar Nasdaq 100. In recent days, indices have begun to trade multi-directionally, indicating a rotation of funds between sectors. There is now a flow of funds from the technology sector into the banking and healthcare sectors.
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Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 9% at the open yesterday and were on track for the biggest one-day percentage drop after the electric car maker reported second-quarter gross profit fell to a four-year low and CEO Elon Musk hinted at further price cuts. Netflix (NFLX) was down by 8% from the open after the streaming video company's quarterly revenue missed estimates. Analysts at Barclays raised their price target on shares of Nvidia (NVDA) by $100 to $600 per share ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Barclays joined HSBC and Rosenblatt, who also raised their price targets. Analysts believe Nvidia could deliver another strong earnings report above expectations amid GenAI demand.
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Morgan Stanley (MS) jumped by 6% after second-quarter results beat both top and bottom lines forecasts. Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) topped the growth leaderboard, up more than 12% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Quarterly results from companies like Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX) are expected today. Tesla's quarterly results will likely focus on margins following the electric carmaker's recent price cuts, while Netflix's quarterly results will focus investor attention on subscriber growth.
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Rising interest rates, which surprised many US banks, proved to be a boon for the nation's largest banks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted record profits, and some of its major competitors reported better-than-expected loan income. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose by 0.6%, while Wells Fargo (WFC) fell by 0.3%. Both major banks reported higher quarterly earnings but said they set aside more funds to cover expected losses on commercial real estate loans. Friday's quarterly reports unofficially opened the second quarter in the US. According to Refintiiv, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings for the quarter to be down by 8.1% compared with a year ago result, but most companies are expected to beat expectations.
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Stock indices closed higher on Wednesday due to cooling inflation in the United States. The consumer price level fell from 4% to 3% (3.1% expected) on an annualized basis. Core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) fell from 5.3% to 4.8% (5.0% expected). The sharp drop in inflation caused the dollar to fall to a 15-month low. Dollar weakness led most risk currencies, gold, and stock indices to rally. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up by 0.25%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.15% on Wednesday.
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Today, the US will release inflation data for June. Inflation is expected to fall from 5.3% to 5.0% year-over-year. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is also expected to fall from 4% to 3.1% year-over-year. Although the issue of a rate hike at the July meeting is almost settled, traders are expecting a softer stance from the US Fed after the data release. Several Fed officials said yesterday that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, which sparked a rally in risk assets this week while also sending the dollar lower.
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The US consumer credit growth slowed to a more than two-year low in May, reflecting the first decline in volume since the pandemic began. Total loans rose by $7.2 billion. This figure, which excludes inflation, was below all forecasts. While low unemployment and steady wage growth have allowed many consumers to continue spending, persistently high prices are forcing others to save.
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The US labor market added 209,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.7%. This number is slightly below economists' expectations of 225,000 jobs. It's also a slowdown from the previous month's reading, which was revised downward by 33,000 to 306,000. But overall, despite some cooling, the labor market remains resilient. The Fed is keeping a close eye on labor market indicators and is concerned that demand for workers will drive more robust wage growth and, in turn, inflation. Therefore, the Fed wants to see an increase in unemployment first to end the tightening cycle.
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The US indices closed lower on Wednesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed appetite for policy tightening and interest rate hikes. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.12% on Wednesday.
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According to the OECD, inflation in advanced economies has slowed to its lowest since December 2021. Inflation has slowed in almost all countries except the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. In the G7 countries, inflation is now at 4.6%, the lowest level since September 2021. The figures show that core inflation remains steady, even though monetary officials make some progress in controlling consumer prices. Policymakers in advanced economies are still in a tightening mode, with both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank signaling another increase in borrowing costs this month.
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The June US ISM manufacturing index was 46.0, below the consensus forecast of 47.1 and weaker than the May reading of 46.9. This is the worst reading since May 2020 and the eighth consecutive reading below 50 (the level between growth and contraction). Key subcomponents such as new orders, production, employment, and customer inventories are in decline. Absolutely all components of the index point to contraction. But the US Federal Reserve is still determined to raise rates further because the labor market and GDP are the main indicators of a slowing economy for the Central Bank.
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On Friday, the PCE inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the US Central Bank, showed that price pressures are easing, fueling hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. Investor optimism improved, leading to active buying of stocks. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.84% (+2.01% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) jumped by 1.23% (+2.43% for the week). On Friday, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.45% (+2.37% for the week).
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The US stock indices rose yesterday, helped by positive economic data. Durable goods orders rose by 1.7% in May, well above the expected 1% drop. The US new home sales rose in May to their highest level in more than a year, helped by limited inventory in the secondary market. Purchases of new single-family homes increased by 12.2% to 763,000 year-over-year. Consumer confidence also rose from 102.5 to 109.7 (forecast: 104), a 17-month-high. The US consumer confidence rose on the back of renewed optimism in the labor market. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.15%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed yesterday positive by 1.65%.
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Speaking last week in the House and Senate, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that further rate hikes are likely in the coming months. After that, 10-year bond yields fell a full percentage point below 2-year rates, deepening the inversion of the yield curve that is usually seen as a harbinger of recession.
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The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the Central Bank would raise interest rates at a "cautious pace" as policymakers near the end of their monetary tightening cycle. According to Powell, the "point" of keeping rates unchanged at last week's Fed meeting was precisely to slow the pace at which the Fed was raising borrowing costs. Investors now expect rate hikes to resume in July, with the Fed possibly assessing the need for further hikes every second meeting. But Powell said he shares his colleagues' broad economic outlook for moderate economic growth, a slight increase in unemployment, and a slow decline in inflation for the rest of the year.
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The US stock indices closed lower on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statement to Congress reinforced the central bank's goal of curbing inflation. Powell said the Fed is at the end of its tightening cycle but also hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes at the July meeting. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.52%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed negative by 1.21% on Wednesday. All three major US stock indices declined for the third day straight.
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The US single-family home construction jumped in May to its highest level in more than a year, and the number of permits issued for future construction also rose, indicating that the housing market is not yet feeling the pressure of high-interest rates and increasing the likelihood of another rate hike from the Fed. This sentiment is putting pressure on investors, so the stock market has seen profit-taking.
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The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken concluded his visit to Beijing on Monday with a surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The latter stressed the importance of sustained relations between the two countries after a period of simmering tensions. During the meeting at the State Guest House, Xi said that the world needs a "generally stable" Sino-American relationship. Xi Jinping also added that the future and fate of humanity depend on whether the two countries can find the right path. The Chinese foreign minister also urged Washington to abandon the so-called "China threat theory" and lift sanctions against Beijing and no longer stifle China's technological development.
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In the Eurozone, the inflation rate has not changed compared to the previous month. Consumer inflation remained at 6.1% y/y, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) remained at 5.3% y/y. ECB spokesman Francois Villeroy de Galo said yesterday that ECB rates are already in restrictive territory. That means the ECB is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Most likely, the rate hike at the July or September meeting will be the last hike in this tightening cycle.
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The US consumer prices fell from 5.5% to 5.3% year-over-year. Core inflation fell sharply from 4.9% to 4%. This was the eleventh consecutive month of decline in overall inflation and the lowest level since early 2021, but it is still double the Fed's stated target of 2%. The US inflation data raised the odds of the Fed pausing to raise rates today from 81% to 93%. The US factory inflation (PPI) data will be released today.
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At the close of the stock market yesterday the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.56%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.93%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed Monday positive 1.51%. Investors were confidently buying stocks yesterday ahead of important inflation data today. One of the main reasons for the buying is Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 4500 points from 4000 points. Analysts believe that if incoming data for June and July show that US inflation will decline, there is a high probability that the Fed will finish raising rates this cycle.
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At the stock market close on Friday the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.13% (+0.31% for the week) and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.11% (+0.37% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) on Friday closed positive by 0.16% (+0.16% for the week). The rally in US stocks shows signs of investor confidence that the US economy is holding up despite higher interest rates. Recession risks are declining. Some investors have begun to dive into economically sensitive market areas, including mid-cap and small-cap companies, energy and industrial stocks, not just "mega-companies." Stronger-than-expected job growth and solid consumer spending were among the indicators that bolstered investors' economic outlook. This week, investors will keep an eye on US inflation data as well as the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.
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The US Jobless claims showed a sharp jump yesterday and spurred expectations of a Federal Reserve pause next week. This led to a drop in the dollar index and Treasury yields. Consequently, stock indices, which have an inverse correlation to the dollar index, got a boost. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.50%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.62%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.02% on Thursday.
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Apple Inc (AAPL) introduced an augmented reality headset called Vision Pro. But the stock has reacted negatively, as analysts are not convinced that the $3499 price tag will drive strong sales, especially at a time of declining economic activity. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rose more than 4% after Piper Sandler raised its target share price to $150
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The ISM Services PMI Index in the US showed a decline from 51.9 to 50.3. The ISM report for May adds to concerns about the outlook for the economy. According to analysts, the manufacturing sector is already in recession (seven consecutive ISM values for the manufacturing sector below 50). Given the current situation, it is hard to imagine that employment will be sustainable in the coming months. Skipping a rate hike at the next meeting would allow the US Fed to see more data. But markets doubt that if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pauses at the June meeting, the Fed can justify resuming a rate hike in July.
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The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added 339,000 jobs in May (forecast: 190K jobs, previous: 294K). The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% (forecast 3.5%, previous 3.4%). Year-over-year wage growth slowed to 4.3%. Fed officials are paying particularly close attention to these numbers ahead of the upcoming two-day meeting, which begins June 13. Labor market data came out mixed with signs of weakness. For the US Fed, this is a sign that interest rates are starting to have a negative effect on the labor market. The likelihood of a pause in June rose to 75% after the news was released. Fed Chairman Jefferson said that skipping a rate hike at the June meeting would give the Central Bank more time to evaluate the data, although it does not mean that rates have peaked. Philadelphia Fed Harker takes a similar view, reiterating that it will be a skip, not a pause.
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At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.21%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) closed higher by 0.99%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.63% on Thursday. ADP private sector employment data in the US pleased a job growth of 278,000 (higher than expected), but wage growth is gradually slowing down. With the number of new jobless claims up slightly last week, the labor market remains resilient, which may encourage the Fed to keep raising rates. The focus now shifts to the Labor Department's unemployment report for May (Nonfarm Payrolls), which will be published today. The data will help determine whether the Fed will stick with an aggressive rate hike. The better the data comes out, the more likely a rate hike will be in June. A rate hike is positive for the dollar and negative for indices and gold, and vice versa.
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At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.41%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) closed lower by 0.61%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.63% on Wednesday. Yesterday the indices were under pressure from declines in consumer and technology stocks. There is also continued uncertainty in the vote on the debt ceiling bill. Most analysts anticipate approval of the bill, but the deadline is close. The US House of Representatives voted for a bill to suspend the debt ceiling late Wednesday night.
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The leading Republican in Congress, Kevin McCarthy, on Tuesday urged his party to support a bipartisan deal to raise the $31.4 trillion US debt ceiling and avert a catastrophic default ahead of a procedural vote. Both Democratic President Joe Biden and House Speaker McCarthy predicted that they would get enough votes to pass the legislation by June 5. Despite the progress, several Republicans said they would resist the deal.
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Famous investor Warren Buffett does not believe that Congress will be unable to raise the debt ceiling and the country will default. He compared the current standoff among lawmakers to the previous one, calling such a clash "an idiotic waste of time" and calling for a complete repeal of the borrowing limit. The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKb) said limiting the borrowing ceiling never made sense because the country's creditworthiness is growing as it grows economically.
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After weeks of difficult negotiations, McCarthy and Biden reached a tentative agreement this weekend on raising the debt ceiling, but now they face the task of getting a deal through the Republican-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate. And it needs to be done by June 5 to avoid a first-ever default in the nation's history. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Sunday that a majority of Republicans in the House would support the deal.
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hares of NVIDIA (NVDA) surged by 27% to $956.52 billion, bringing its market capitalization close to $1 trillion, after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results and forecasts that markedly beat Wall Street estimates. The chipmaker said it expects second-quarter revenue of about $11 billion, well above analysts' expectations of $7 billion, as the growing need for artificial intelligence supports the outlook for chip demand. Nvidia's record surge led Monolith Power Systems (MPWR), which provides power management solutions for some Nvidia chips, up by 16%, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also got a boost.
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The US stock indices ended Tuesday with a negative result. By the close of trading on the stock market Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.69%, and S&P 500 (US500) was 1.12% lower. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.26% on Tuesday. Stock indices are down again due to growing concerns about the US default. Yesterday lawmakers concluded another round of debt ceiling talks without a deal. The lack of progress comes just days before June 1st, when the US may default on its debt. But it is worth realizing that the likelihood of default is low because such debates happen almost every year and every time politicians agree. But this time, the politicians really delayed the deadlines.
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On Monday, Intel Corp. (INTC) revealed some new details about the artificial intelligence (AI) computing chip it plans to introduce in 2025. The company plans to radically change its development strategy to compete with Nvidia (NVDA) Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Inc. At a supercomputer conference in Germany on Monday, Intel said its future Falcon Shores chip would have 288 gigabytes of memory and support 8-bit floating-point computing. These specifications are important for artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT services.
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Problems with the US debt ceiling were back in the spotlight late last week. Investors are scared by the likelihood of default if politicians can't reach an agreement. While the probability of such a scenario is low, the rise in the dollar last week showed how investors were buying dollars as a safe haven currency. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33% (+0.32% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.14% (+1.58% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down 0.24% on Friday (+2.90% for the week).
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White House economic adviser Lael Brainard said Thursday that a default on the $31.4 trillion US debt would lead to a recession in the US economy. Brainard also pointed out that Biden's negotiating team has been instructed not to agree to any Republican proposal to raise the debt ceiling that would deprive Americans of health care or plunge any of them into poverty. Republicans, who are threatening to default on the government, are trying to convince Democrats to accept tougher job requirements for some federal aid programs, as well as cut spending in exchange for lifting the borrowing limit.
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The US stock indices rose on Wednesday amid hopes that Congress will work out an agreement to raise the national debt ceiling, allowing the US to avoid defaulting on its obligations. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.24%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.28%. After yesterday's meeting, lawmakers expressed optimism that a default can be avoided. US President Biden will travel to Japan today for a meeting of G-7 world leaders, but he cut the rest of his trip to Asia while the debt ceiling problem persists.
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At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.01%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.64%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday down by 0.18%. After disappointing quarterly results, falling shares of Home Depot put pressure on shares. Home Depot (HD) stock fell more than 2% after reporting quarterly earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations due to falling lumber prices. Retailer sentiment was also hurt by US retail sales data that fell short of expectations, signaling weaker consumer sentiment. The energy sector was the biggest headwind for the overall market, as weaker-than-expected economic data from China overshadowed expectations for higher energy demand.
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At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.14%, and the S&P 500 (US500) was up by 0.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday positive by 0.66%. Reports of progress in the debt ceiling negotiations fuel investor optimism that US lawmakers can break the current impasse and agree to increase the federal budget and prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt. President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders today.
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At the closing of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.03% (-0.23% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.16% (-0.31% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.32% on Friday (+0.43% for the week). Friday's data, which showed a sharper-than-expected drop in consumer sentiment in the United States, heightened fears that the political debate over raising the debt ceiling could trigger a recession. Republicans are pushing for steep spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, while Democrats are pointing out that the debt ceiling is not an appropriate vehicle for budget changes.
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At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.66%, while the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.17%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.18% on Thursday. The US indices continued to decline yesterday due to ongoing problems at regional banks. PacWest Bancorp shares fell by 22% after reports that the bank's deposits decreased by 9.5% in the week ended May 5, continuing fears of a deeper banking crisis.
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The US Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% last month, but a deeper look at the data showed a slowdown in core services inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a Fed pause in June rose from 79% to 96%. But analysts at Morgan Stanley don't share that and believe that a slight rise in core inflation with a significant slowdown in core services should prompt the Fed to leave the door open for a June hike. While US inflation fell more than expected annually, there are concerns that the impact of higher interest rates on the US economy is only now beginning to show. And the dynamics of the stock indices show it well. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.24%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.63% on Wednesday.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.65% (-1.30% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 1.85% (-0.73% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Friday (+0.21% for the week). Investor fears that the economy is headed for a recession in the second half of the year bolstered bets that interest rates will soon decline.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.65% (-1.30% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 1.85% (-0.73% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Friday (+0.21% for the week). Investor fears that the economy is headed for a recession in the second half of the year bolstered bets that interest rates will soon decline.
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The US stock indices fell again Tuesday as the banking crisis continues. The KBW regional banking index fell more than 6% to its lowest level since November 2020. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 1.08%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.16% at the stock market's close. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 1.08% yesterday.
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The US manufacturing activity declined for the sixth straight month in April, the longest period since 2009 and a sign of trouble in the manufacturing sector. Order numbers improved slightly but remained in contractionary territory. The good news is that the numbers show that the manufacturing sector is contracting at a slower pace. At the same time, manufacturers face many challenges, including higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions, lower demand for goods and still higher prices. A senior portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. believes Monday's PMI data bolstered expectations for a 25 basis point increase in Federal Reserve interest rates in May and the likelihood of a June increase.
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The Personal Consumption Price (PCE) Index, excluding food and energy, the Fed's preferred measure of core inflation, was up 0.3% in March from the previous month. The PCE price data, especially with rising labor costs, support projections that Fed policymakers will raise the benchmark interest rate by another quarter percentage point at this week's meeting. Fed officials and markets remain at odds over the future trajectory of interest rates, with the Central Bank expecting interest rates to remain at current levels through 2023, while investors are betting on lower rates by the end of the year. Given renewed signs of stress in the banking sector in recent days, as well as problems at First Republic Bank (FRC), Fed officials may signal a pause in June.
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Stronger-than-expected reports from tech companies Microsoft (MSFT) and Google Alphabet (GOOGL) helped improve investor sentiment in the tech sector. But weak economic data exacerbated recession fears in the world's largest economy as rising recession risks threaten consumer spending. At the close of the stock market on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.68%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.47% yesterday.
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The US stock indices fell yesterday amid disappointing consumer confidence data and weak company reports. The Conference Board survey showed that consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low. It should be noted that household consumption is the main driver of US gross domestic product. The US Federal Reserve Richmond's Manufacturing Index also fell to minus 10 in April, the fourth consecutive month of decline. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.98% yesterday.
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At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.20%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.29% yesterday. A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago survey showed that the index, used to estimate economic conditions, declined by 29 points between March and April. This indicates that most respondents are pessimistic about the future. More than half - about 65% - said they expect economic activity to decline over the next 12 months.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.06% (-0.32% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.09% (-0.25% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.11% on Friday (-0.30% for the week). Stock indices remain under pressure from high rates. The US Federal Reserve is 90% likely to raise interest rates by 0.25% at its May meeting. As of April 21, 18% of companies in the S&P 500 Index reported actual results for Q1 2023, of which 63% reported actual earnings above estimates. Many important US macro statistics will be released this week, and the tech giants (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META) will also report, which will be a key test for the stock market. Investors have gravitated toward tech stocks this year, believing that the Fed will soon stop raising interest rates and that the sector will remain resilient as growth slows. Reports will show if this is true.
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At the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.80% yesterday. Sentiment for risky assets, including stocks, worsened due to recent economic data showing further weakness in manufacturing and an increase in jobless claims. The weaker data exacerbated fears of a deeper economic slowdown at a time when the Federal Reserve continues to be inclined to raise rates further.
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The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.03% at Tuesday's close of the stock market, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.04% yesterday. Concerns about interest rate hikes have returned to the markets in recent sessions as hawkish signals from Fed officials and signs of some resilience in the US economy have created uncertainty about when the Fed will suspend its rate hike cycle. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its May meeting and bring the rate to a restrictive level of 5.25%.
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At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.33%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.28% yesterday. But despite the gains in the indices, sentiment for growth sectors, including technology, was dampened by a jump in Treasury yields amid growing fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
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Short-term inflation expectations in the US jumped to a nearly two-year high at the start of April on the back of higher gas prices, but consumer sentiment did rise. These patterns show that consumers are fully aware that inflation is down from its peak, but high prices still make them feel less financially secure. Despite the minutes of the central bank's March meeting acknowledging an increased risk of recession later this year, most investors are betting that the Fed will still raise rates by another 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on May 3rd.
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The US jobless claims rose to 239,000. This is the first increase in 3 weeks. Jobless claims in February fell to their lowest level since 2021, and labor force participation rose in March to its highest level in three years. This data indicates that the labor market is starting to weaken. The Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and factories, fell by 0.5% in the last month, indicating lower inflationary pressures in the US. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on the monetary policy along with falling overall inflation. Minutes from the Fed's March meeting showed that the Central Bank expects recent bank turmoil to trigger a "soft recession" later this year.
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The US Consumer Price Index declined from 6% to 5% year-on-year. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) rose from 5.5% to 5.6% y/y, with the Index adding 0.4% for the month. This data disappointed investors as the key inflation indicator shows no signs of slowing down, which increases the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Fed. CME FedWatch Tool shows a 68% probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% at the May meeting. Comments from FOMC officials diverge. The US stock market was mostly down yesterday. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.11%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.41%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.85%.
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The US stock market traded without a single trend yesterday. At the close of trading, Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.29%, S&P 500 (US500) closed at opening levels. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.43%. At the moment, the situation in the US stock market is mixed. Investors are waiting for the US inflation report and the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes. These two reports will explain the US Federal Reserve's future policy. Rising core inflation and hawkish FOMC minutes could add confidence to the dollar as it increases the likelihood of another 0.25% interest rate hike at the May 3 meeting. Conversely, lower inflationary pressures, along with non-hawkish FOMC minutes, could trigger a sell-off in the dollar.
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The US stock market traded yesterday without a single trend. At the close of trading, Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, S&P 500 (US500) added 0.10%. But NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.03%. The minutes of the Fed's March meeting are due on Wednesday and are expected to provide more information on the Central Bank's plans to raise interest rates in the face of a potential banking crisis. While the collapse of several US banks in March has spurred bets that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes, markets are now preparing for at least one more increase in May (80% probability).

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A Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday showed that US nonfarm payrolls rose by 236,000 in March, in line with a forecast of 239,000. February's data was revised upwards. 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000. The US unemployment rate fell to a record low of 3.5%. At the same time, annual payrolls rose at the slowest rate since June 2021. Although the employment report showed significant growth, some sectors saw moderate declines, particularly manufacturing, and construction. But overall, such data leaves the US Federal Reserve with room for another rate hike at the next meeting. The market currently estimates a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May. The US stock indices did not trade on Friday due to the holidays. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.77%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 1.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.47% in 5 days.

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Weekly jobless claims in the US are falling. Initial jobless claims fell by 18,000 in the last week from 246,000, exceeding economists' forecast of 200,000 applications and reinforcing expectations of a cooling labor market. An important monthly labor market report will be released today, namely the change in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts forecast that the US economy will add 238,000 jobs in March after an increase of 311,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a low of 3.6%. With low liquidity due to the closure of other financial exchanges in Asia and Europe (Good Friday holiday), this report could cause a significant spike in volatility.

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In the United States, the ISM manufacturing and services business activity index fell short of expectations in March, indicating a clear deterioration in demand conditions. If the business activity does not recover soon, layoffs could accelerate in the coming months, exacerbating labor market problems and pushing the country into a painful recession. The ADP National Employment report showed that US private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, adding to the signs of a cooling labor market after Tuesday's weak jobs data. Stock indices are once again under pressure. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.24%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.25%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.07% yesterday.

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According to the monthly JOLTS report, the number of job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell by 632,000 to 9.9 million in February, the lowest since May 2021. This is a direct sign of a slowing labor market, reinforcing investors' bets that the Federal Reserve will end its tightening cycle and fueling recession fears. The US factory orders also declined for the second straight month, a 0.7% decrease in February after falling by 2.1% in January. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.59%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.59% at the close of the stock market on Tuesday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.52% yesterday.

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The US stock indices were mostly up on Monday as energy stocks rose on higher oil prices after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) unexpectedly cut oil production by 1 million BPD. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.98%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.37%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.27% yesterday.

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The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Core Price Index (personal consumption expenditures excluding home prices), fell on an annualized basis from 5.3% to 5.0%. Signs of a slowdown in inflation have reinforced the hopes of the Federal Reserve to end its aggressive rate hikes soon. This bolstered confidence in stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.26% (+ 3.09% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.44% (+ 3.17% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.74% (+2.98% for the week). The Nasdaq recorded its biggest quarterly percentage gain since June 2020.

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The US GDP for the first quarter of 2023 rose by 2.6%, indicating a resilient economy. The US jobless claims rose by 7,000 in the last week (forecast 5,000) to 198,000. The level remains extremely low, but analysts predict a sharp increase in the second quarter. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Thursday that he has not yet concluded what rate hike might be appropriate for the May meeting. According to the politician, there is a lot of uncertainty about how the bank situation affects consumer confidence, the business climate, business investment, consumer spending, and the availability of credit.

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The US stock indices rose sharply on Wednesday as concerns about stress in the banking sector eased, while upbeat earnings reports and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate hikes further boosted sentiment. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.00%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.79%.

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The US indices fell on Tuesday under pressure from rising Treasury yields amid signs that consumers remain optimistic. If the consumer confidence index is rising, it indicates the economy is not all bad, which in turn could increase the likelihood of another rate hike by the US Fed. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.12%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.45% on Tuesday.

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In the run-up to the European session yesterday, there was news about the sale of Silicon Valley Bank to another bank, First Citizens Bancshares, one of the most prominent regional banks in the United States, which could become one of the top 20 banks in the United States. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has confirmed that all of SVB's deposits and branches will go under the new management. Shares of Citizens Bancshares jumped by 53% yesterday. The deal helped calm investor fears about the banking crisis. There are also hopes for additional support for bank financing as the US authorities are discussing expanding emergency lending facilities. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.60%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.16%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) decreased by 0.47% on Monday.

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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, in line with expectations, but signaled that the hike cycle might be coming to an end in response to nervousness about US banks after the unexpected collapse of two medium-term regional small banks. According to analysts, the turmoil in the banking sector, which caused turmoil on Wall Street earlier this month, is likely to lead to a credit crunch for households and businesses in the coming months, creating a meaningful process of disinflation. This will ease the pressure on the central bank, limiting the need for overly restrictive policies. The economy does not yet reflect the real problems that will result from a significant tightening of lending standards, but the negative effects will soon become visible.

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At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.30%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.01%. Investors are still trying to understand why the Fed keeps raising rates when risks in the financial sector have risen. According to a new batch of published Fed projections, interest rates will peak this year at 5.1%, which implies another rate hike. The Fed Funds rate futures now indicate mixed expectations for the next FOMC meeting on May 3. They imply the likelihood of either a pause in rate hikes or another quarter percentage point increase.

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On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% to 5% and maintained its outlook for another increase this year. Treasury yields rebounded from session lows, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the market, including technology, lost momentum. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.60%.

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Concerns about problems in the banking sector are easing. The US First Republic Bank (FRC) shares jumped about 30% yesterday after US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US government would be willing to step in and support smaller banks. Other regional banks also rose sharply on the news. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) Increased by 0.98%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.06%.

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At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.20%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.32% yesterday. The US Federal Reserve said late last week that it would work with other major central banks to provide liquidity to the global banking sector. Certainly, this has brought some optimism back to the stock market. But that could easily dissipate if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates on Wednesday and hints at further policy tightening.

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The US dollar came under pressure last week, falling about 0.8%, which was caused by a sharp drop in US bond yields. Traders and investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the US in the face of turmoil in the banking sector. Rates shifted dovish after the collapse of two mid-sized US regional banks heightened fears of financial Armageddon, prompting the Fed to take emergency measures to support depository institutions facing liquidity shortages. Late last week, the Fed injected $4.4 trillion into the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to help banks. Many analysts consider this a hidden "quantitative easing" (QE). At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.19% (+0.13% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.10% (+2.13% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.74% on Friday (+5.33% for the week).

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The US indices rose Thursday after reports that major Wall Street banks pledged billions of dollars to bail out First Republic Bank. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Bank of America Corp (BAC), and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) led a group of major banks that will rescue First Republic Bank (FRC) deposits totaling $30 billion. As the stock market closed on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.17%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.76%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.48% yesterday.

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The released US producer price index data came in better than expected. Factory inflation decreased by 0.1% last month. Markets reacted with a drop in US Treasury bond yields. This indicates an impending change in the Fed's rhetoric and the imminent end of the rate hike cycle. Federal funds futures show a 40% probability that the rate will remain unchanged at the March 22 meeting and a 60% probability that 25 bps will raise the rate to the 5.00% level. At the same time, it is expected that the maximum rates will be formed already at the next meeting, and by the end of 2023, the Fed will cut the rate to 3.75%. At the close of the stock market on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.87%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.70%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.05% yesterday.

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Inflationary pressures in the United States are easing. The latest data showed that consumer prices fell from 6.4% to 6.0% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) has declined from 5.6% to 5.5%. This raises the possibility of a small interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.06%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.14% yesterday.

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The Federal Reserve will lend one year's worth of securities portfolios to banks under a new term financing program for banks, eliminating the risk that banks could be forced to sell their $4.4 trillion in government securities at a loss. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will safeguard all depositors of SVB, as well as depositors of Signature Bank of New York, closed by New York State because of "systemic risk." According to politicians, these actions will reduce the burden on the financial system and support financial stability. Thus, US authorities are trying to avoid the risks of the 2008 crisis. But for investors and hedge funds, such actions were not so convincing. By the close of the stock market on Monday, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.28%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.45% yesterday.

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SVB shares fell by 44% on Friday, adding to a 60% drop in the previous session. Meanwhile, larger US banks JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) were also down. The fall of SVB shares, which began on Thursday, spread to other American and European banks. According to Reuters, US banks lost more than $100 billion in the stock market, and European banks lost another $50 billion over the past two trading days. This has caused panic among investors, and that panic could intensify if people start withdrawing their deposits from banks on Monday, fearing a 2008 scenario. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.07% (-4.53% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.45% (-4.77% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.76% on Friday (-5.09% for the week).

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Yesterday, the US stock indices fell sharply, mainly due to falling banking sector shares. Shares of SVB Financial Group (SIVB) fell more than 55% after the bank disclosed a net loss of $1.8 billion and gave a negative outlook for the year on the impact of higher interest rates. SVB Financial Group said it was taking aggressive measures to shore up its balance sheet, including selling shares and liquidating its securities portfolio. The SIVB's fall has dampened sentiment toward bank stocks, which have been pressured by a deeper inversion of the yield curve, a harbinger of recession. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.66%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.85%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.05%.

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Analysts and investors struggled to find a reason to be optimistic about stocks yesterday. Still, stock indices remained under pressure Wednesday amid lingering fears of renewed aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The latest labor market data showed that private-sector job gains in February exceeded economists' estimates, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will be forced to accelerate the rate hikes at its March meeting. The probability of a return to raising rates by 50 basis points at the Fed meeting on March 21-22 rose to 80% compared to 71% the day before. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.18%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.40%.

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The stock market fell on Tuesday as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell increased the odds that the Fed will return to an aggressive rate hike course.he likelihood of a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the March 21-22 Fed meeting jumped to nearly 70% from 24% the day before. The hawkish statements pushed Treasury yields higher, with 2-year bond yields exceeding 5% for the first time since 2007. The rise in yields led to a sharp rise in the dollar index and a decline in the major indices. At the close of the stock market on Tuesday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.72%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.53%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.25%.

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The US Treasury yields rose yesterday ahead of Powell's speech to Congress, which could give clues as to the US Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Investors and funds are starting to hedge and close their trades after the good rally in the last days of last week. At the close of the stock market on Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.12%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.11%.

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The recent string of strong economic data has caused investors to rethink how much more Fed tightening is needed to slow the economy significantly. Investors have begun to realize that the Fed will stop raising rates probably before early summer, and the current price levels in the stock market are a great opportunity to buy or average portfolios. This caused the indices to rise sharply at the end of last week. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.17% (+1.47% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.61% (+1.33% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.97% on Friday (+1.49% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) broke a three-week losing streak, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) posted its first weekly gain since late January.

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The US Treasury bond yields fell sharply yesterday after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Rafael Bostic ruled out a return to more aggressive Fed rate hikes and said the central bank would suspend its tightening efforts by mid to late summer. This brought optimism back to the stock market. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.73%.

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According to ISM, the US Manufacturing Activity Index rose from 47.4 to 47.7 in February, slightly below expectations of 48.0. To understand what this index shows - any value above 50 signals growth in the sector, while values below this threshold indicate a contraction. The US manufacturing activity index has remained in falling territory for the fourth consecutive month, a sign that the economic outlook is challenging amid persistently high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. While the manufacturing sector has been in recession since last November, the jump in prices suggests that inflation is likely to remain resilient in the coming months, raising the risk that the Fed could raise its final rate in its efforts to restore price stability.

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The US CB consumer confidence index declined for the second month in a row, a sign that Americans are becoming more pessimistic about economic prospects amid persistently high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. Looking at the individual components of the report, the current situation index, based on business and labor market assessments, rose to 152.8 from 151.1. Still, the expectation indicator, which tracks short-term income prospects, the business environment, and job opportunities, fell sharply to 69.7 from 76.00. Over the past few weeks, markets have overestimated the Fed's monetary policy outlook upward because of solid economic data, but expectations could soon change if falling confidence causes a significant decline in consumer spending.

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The latest economic data showed that durable goods orders fell by 4.5%, more than the expected 3.7%. This data has somewhat lessened the nervousness about the impending interest rate hike. As the stock market closed on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.31%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.63%.

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The January PCE data released Friday, one of the Fed's favorite inflation indicators, showed an unexpected increase in price pressures. The PCE index rose by 0.6% in the last month, and the annual rate was 5.4%. This is negative data, indicating that inflationary pressures remain high. Thus, Fed policymakers have no choice but to maintain an aggressive stance longer. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.02 (-2.55% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.05% (-2.63% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.69% on Friday (-3.25% for the week).

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The US Commerce Department reported Thursday that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the latest quarter. That's down from the previous estimate of 2.9% growth. Slower growth in Gross Domestic Product, a broad measure of economic activity, may be a sign that a series of sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has a greater impact than previously thought. This has eased investor fears about the Fed's aggressive willingness to raise rates further. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.53%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.72%.

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The minutes of the Federal Reserve's February meeting contained no new hawkish statements but added to expectations that further interest rate hikes are necessary to control inflation. 10-year Treasury yields closed near their daily highs after the minutes were released, sending the dollar index higher and stock indices lower. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.26%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.16% on Wednesday at the close of the stock market. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.13%. A stronger-than-expected earnings outlook from Nvidia helped tech stocks, especially chipmakers.

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The US stock market ended Tuesday's trading lower amid negative dynamics from the consumer services, technology, and industrial sectors. Concerns over higher interest rates were again the main cause for concern. At Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.06%, and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 2.00%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.50% yesterday.

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The US stock market did not trade yesterday because of the holiday. Stock index futures traded in the European session, but there were no significant movements. The price traded in a narrow price range due to low volatility. Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, said over the weekend that it was launching a paid subscription service that would offer features such as account verification, a move the company said would protect content generators.

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Since the release of PPI inflation data on Thursday, fears of the US Federal Reserve returning to a more aggressive pace of rate hikes have returned to financial markets, especially given the strong labor market and GDP growth. All of this was fueled by relevant comments from Fed officials. Cleveland Fed Chair Loretta Mester said Thursday that US interest rates would have to rise above 5% and stay there for a long time to keep inflation down significantly. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, often considered the most hawkish official at the central bank, also said Thursday that he supports further rate hikes. Bullard added that he would support a 50 basis point increase at the next Fed meeting on March 22. As a result, the US stock market came under pressure late last week. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.39% (-0.18% week-to-date), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.28% (-0.43% week-to-date). NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.58% on Friday (+0.24% for the week).

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In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which shows the rate of inflation between factories and plants, rose by 0.7% over the past month. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell again, indicating a strong and resilient labor market. Fed officials are once again scaring investors into returning to more rate hikes as demand does not decline. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said yesterday that the prospect of the Fed returning to more rate hikes is not out of the table. Bullard's comments echoed those of Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who said she saw a compelling case for a 0.5% rate hike at the last Fed meeting. Treasury yields jumped on these statements, which led to a decline in rising sectors of the market, including consumer and technology. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.26%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.78%.

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The US dollar continued rising after strong retail sales data, which, together with CPI data, opened the door to further rate hikes by the US Central Bank. But stock indices rose along with the dollar yesterday, which is rare since, most of the time, these instruments are inversely correlated. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.11, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.28%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.92%.

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The US indices traded yesterday without a single dynamic. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) Index decreased by 0.46%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.57%. The latest consumer price data showed that the US inflation rate fell from 6.5% to 6.4% (forecast 6.2%) annually, with core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also falling from 5.7% to 5.6% (forecast 5.5%). Inflationary pressures are declining, but not as quickly as the US Fed would like. Because of this, expectations for the Fed's final interest rate may rise slightly, which would create a favorable environment for the US dollar and government bonds and an unfavorable situation for stock indices. The prospect of higher interest rates also increases the likelihood of a US recession this year, as rising short-term yields reflect investor fears of slower economic growth.

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The Federal Reserve may have to keep raising interest rates to curb price increases, which could slow economic growth and affect the labor market, FOMC spokeswoman Michelle Bowman said yesterday. Bowman noted that continued labor market tightness is putting upward pressure on inflation, even if some components of inflation are declining because of improved supply factors. Officials in December projected that rates would peak at 5.1% this year, according to their average forecast. But they will update those estimates next month. Such comments did not affect investor sentiment to buy stocks. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.11, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.48%.

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Last week, the Nasdaq recorded its first weekly decline of the year. After a strong report on nonfarm payrolls and data from ISM in service sectors, investors concluded that the US economy remains resilient, and interest rates are pricing in a "higher for the longer term" scenario. Such market conditions create an environment of uncertainty for investors, which limits growth potential. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.50 (-0.02% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.22% (-0.71% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.61% on Friday (-1.56% for the week).

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On Thursday, Federal Reserve officials continued to impose their hawkish message on the market. The main message from policymakers is that further rate hikes are not far off and that the rate should remain high for an extended period. While there is nothing new in these comments, the 2-10 Treasury yield curve has flipped by 85 basis points, the deepest inversion since the early 1980s, raising new fears about economic problems. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.73%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.02% yesterday.

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The stock market yesterday was tossing from one side to the other, digesting comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. As a result, Mr. Powell did not give any new clues. The Fed still sees the need for further rate hikes in the fight against inflation, which is likely to be protracted. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.78%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.29%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.90% yesterday.

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At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38%, and the S&P 500 (US500) was down by 1.04%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 1.00% yesterday. The stock market continues to be influenced by Friday's news. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said Monday that given the unexpectedly strong job growth data in January, the US Federal Reserve might need to raise the cost of borrowing higher. Today, investors are awaiting a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, where they will be looking for clues as to the US Central Bank's future actions.

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Friday's US jobs report caused investors to revise their expectations of how hawkish the Fed might be in its efforts to rein in inflation. Nonfarm payrolls showed 517K (forecast 190K, previous 223K). The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% (forecast 3.6%, previous 3.5%). Very strong labor market data leaves the US Fed with more leeway to keep raising rates. Investors are concerned that excessive Fed rate hikes will cause a recession in the economy. That's why such labor market data caused a sell-off in the stock market. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38% (+0.05% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.04% (+2.15% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.59% (+4.30% for the week).

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Investors are investing in tech stocks after the Meta rally. The artificial intelligence technology boom in recent months has forced investors to pour money into technology. The market has also been helped by renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates sooner than originally planned.The US stock markets continued their rally yesterday. By Thursday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.11%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.48%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.25%.

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The Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday but indicated that it expects more hikes in the future. The Fed is planning two more 0.25% rate hikes in March and May, but analysts doubt the Fed needs to go that high, especially since inflation is slowing and there are early warning signs in the labor market.The US stock markets rose yesterday amid a slowdown in the rate hike. At the close of the stock market on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.05%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.00% yesterday.

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The US stock markets rose yesterday. At the close of the stock market on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.09%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.46%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.67%. Investors have been evaluating a lot of companies' results, and they have generally been better than expected. But US economic indicators continue to decline. Consumer confidence fell from 109 to 107.1 in January, with the report indicating that consumers have become less optimistic about job prospects and expect a softening of business conditions in the near future.

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The new week started with a more cautious mood in the markets. Stock indices closed lower on Monday as investors refused to buy stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and further quarterly earnings. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.77%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.96% yesterday.

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The latest inflation data showed an improvement in the trajectory of core commodity prices and rate-sensitive components. The Fed's favorite measure of Core PCE inflation fell from 4.7% to 4.4%, reinforcing the sense that interest rates are nearing a peak. Now the focus of policymakers has shifted to rebalancing the labor market and taking all measures to bring inflation to the target level. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.08% (+1.61% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.25% (+2.32% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.95% on Friday (+4.03% for the week).

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According to the US Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9% in the latest quarter, less than the 3.2% quarter before but more than the market estimate of 2.6%. But a more detailed report shows signs of slowing growth. While consumer spending maintained a solid growth rate, most of the increase in consumption came at the start of the fourth quarter. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.10%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.76% yesterday.

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The US reporting season continues to gain momentum. Tesla (TSLA) had a great fourth quarter thanks to a 37% increase in revenue. Tesla stated that under any scenario, they are prepared for short-term uncertainty but are focused on the long-term potential of autonomy, electrification, and energy solutions. IBM Corporation (IBM) on Wednesday reported its highest annual revenue growth in a decade and beat Wall Street expectations for the fourth quarter. The company also projected year-over-year revenue growth. But despite the good report, the company's stock fell on the release of the report. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.03%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.02%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.18% yesterday.

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In the technology sector, gains in Apple (AAPL) stocks were offset by declines in Alphabet (GOOGL) stock. The US Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Google, claiming that the search engine giant violated the antitrust laws by abusing its monopoly in advertising technology. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), which ended the day just below opening levels, rose by 4% on the release of its report. The company's quarterly earnings beat Wall Street estimates. The US reporting season continues to gain momentum, but indices are reacting sluggishly. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.31%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.07%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.27%.

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Barclays Bank upgraded AMD (AMD), Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM), and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) forecasts, raising shares by more than 9%, 6%, and 7%, respectively. The US indices closed higher on Monday as shares of major technology companies and chipmakers were on the upside ahead of reports from tech giants. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.73%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.01% yesterday.

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The US government reached its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday amid a spat between uncompromising Republicans and Democrats over raising the nation's debt ceiling. But traders can be sure the politicians will eventually agree because they have no choice. It happens every year, and this time is no exception. At the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.00% (-2.05% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.89% (+0.30% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.66% on Friday (+2.15% for the week).

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The US stock indices continued their decline yesterday. Quarterly results fell short of estimates, with increasing negativity that the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish for a long time as the labor market shows little sign of easing. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.96% on Thursday.

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The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell more than expected in December. This data shows the rate of inflation between factories and plants. The lower PPI puts more pressure on the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. But despite the easing of inflationary pressures, the US indices declined yesterday. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.81%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.56%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.24% on Wednesday.

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The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the holiday. But futures on indices traded in the European and partly in the US session. By the close of the futures market on Monday, the indices were down a bit, so the stock market's opening on Tuesday will be accompanied by a price gap. Traders should not forget that it is the earnings season in the United States. Such companies as Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are reporting today.

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The US consumer price index fell from 7.1% to 6.5% (forecast 6.5%) on an annualized basis. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also slowed year over year from 6% to 5.7% (5.7% forecast). Lower inflationary pressures have increased bets that the Federal Reserve will move to smaller hikes. The US indices continued to rise amid declining inflationary pressures. By the trading day's close, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.64%, and S&P500 (US500) added 0.34%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.64% on Thursday.

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Important inflation data will be released in the US today. Economists expect the Consumer Price Index to decline from 7.1% to 6.5% year-over-year in December. The December consumer price index reading will determine the pace at which the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates. Expectations of further signs of easing inflationary pressures will support a less hawkish Fed stance (0.25% hike at the next meeting). The US indices rose yesterday as investors bet that today's US consumer price data will show a further slowdown in inflation. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.80%, and the S&P500 index (US500) added 1.28%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.76% on Wednesday.

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The US indices were trading up yesterday. By the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.56%, and the S&P500 (US500) added 0.70%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.01% on Tuesday. In his speech at a banking symposium in Sweden, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided no new information on monetary policy but pointed to the Central Bank's resolve, saying that unpopular decisions may be needed to lower inflation.

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The US indices traded yesterday without a single trend. Dips in healthcare and energy stocks offset gains in the high-tech sector. At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.34%, while the S&P500 index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.63% on Monday. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the US economy will be more resilient to monetary tightening than other G10 economies, as not only a strong labor market but also a housing finance structure and energy self-sufficiency will help.

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As the US labor market remains resilient, the Fed can count on further rate hikes to keep inflation in check. The dollar Index unexpectedly fell on a strong US labor market report, and this could be a "false" move as a strong labor market, along with further rate hikes, is the foundation for a stronger dollar. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 2.13% (+1.54% for the week), and the S&P500 index (US500) added 2.28% (+1.72% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.56% on Friday (+1.94% for the week). All three indices closed in positive territory last week.

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The US indices declined on Thursday due to rising Treasury yields as preliminary data from ADP continued to point to a robust labor market, fueling fears of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.16%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 1.47. By the end of the day, all three indices were negative.

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At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.75%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.69% on Wednesday. All three indices closed the day in positive territory. The Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its rate target to a range of 5% to 5.25%. The markets expect the Fed to raise the rate by 0.25% at its next meeting on February 1. The probability of such a scenario is 84%. Goldman Sachs analysts expect three rate hikes of 25 bps in February, March, and May, with a peak funds rate of 5-5.25%.

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As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.04%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.41%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.76% on Tuesday. At the end of the day, all three indices closed with losses. Apple (AAPL) lost more than 4%, approaching a $2 trillion market value for the first time since 2021. Shares of electric carmaker Tesla Inc (TSLA) fell more than 13% Tuesday after the company reported lower-than-expected deliveries for the quarter and year.

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At the close of the stock market on the last trading day of 2022, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.22% (+0.56% for the week), while the S&P500 Index (US500) lost  0.25% (+0.64% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.11% on Friday (+0.28% for the week). By the end of 2022, The Dow Jones index (US30) fell by 9.40%, the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 19.95%, and the NASDAQ Index (US100) decreased by 33.89%.

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The shadow of a Santa Claus rally has returned to the markets. At the close of the stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.75%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 2.39%. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance rose in line with expectations last week. Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week rose from 216,000 to 225,000.

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Investors continue to get rid of stocks before the end of the trading year. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 1.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.35%. The Nasdaq (US100) fell to a two-month low as the technology downturn continues, and the S&P 500 (US500) is poised for its biggest annual loss since the 2008 financial crisis. Recession fears are highly likely to continue in the market in early 2023, but analysts believe equity markets will begin to recover in the second half of 2023.

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In the US, the Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE) rose by 0.1% last month after rising 0.4% in October. The latest data signaled that the PCE index was slowing, reinforcing expectations for a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and improving investor appetite for risk. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.53% (+0.86% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.59% (-0.23% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was up 0.21% on Friday (-1.96% for the week).

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In the US, higher-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.2% in the third quarter - compared to forecasts of 2.9% growth - has returned fears of an interest rate hike to the market. This led to a strengthening of the dollar index and a selloff in the stock market. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.45%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed the day at minus 2.18%.

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In the United States, the Conference Board consumer confidence indicator jumped to 108.3 from 101.4, beating economists' forecast of 101.0. Data showing strong consumer sentiment, a key gauge of consumer spending that drives economic growth, eased fears of a recession, leading stock indices to rise. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.60%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.49%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed up by 1.54%.

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The Bank of Japan alarmed investors yesterday after it announced it would allow Japan's 10-year government bond yields to rise 50 basis points or 0.5%. That's above the previous limit of 25 basis points and signals the Bank of Japan's first move to tighten monetary policy by expanding its target range for bond yields. Japan's rising government bond yields led to rising global bond yields, including Treasuries, which in turn led to falling indices. Nevertheless, the growth of energy companies' shares due to a jump in oil prices helped stabilize the stock market as a whole. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.10%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed at its opening level.

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The US stock market fell on Monday for the fourth straight session as investors fear that the Federal Reserve's campaign to tighten monetary policy could push the US economy into recession. This sentiment is creating downward pressure on major indices. At the stock market's close, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.49%, while S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.90%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 1.49% on Monday. All three indices closed the day lower.

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Prospects for a "Santa Claus rally" are decreasing every day as investors fear that aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening will hamper stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-1.79% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 1.11% (-2.21% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.97% on Friday (-2.81% for the week). All three indices closed the week lower.

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The US stock indices closed Thursday with sharp declines, with each of the major indices experiencing their biggest daily percentage drop in weeks, as fears intensified that the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a recession. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 2.49%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 3.23% yesterday. All three indices closed the day with losses.

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Stock indices closed lower Wednesday as the Federal Reserve shifted to a slower pace of rate hikes but also signaled that rates will reach higher levels than previously expected. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% and raised its rate forecast to a peak of 5.1%, which will remain through 2023. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.61%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.76% on Wednesday. All three indices closed the day lower.

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The US consumer inflation rate fell from 7.7% to 7.1% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also fell from 6.3% to 6.1%. Overall, the latest data provided the strongest evidence that the United States inflation is slowing steadily. The markets reacted with an impulse to this data. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 0.73%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) was up 1.01% on Tuesday. All three indices closed the day in positive territory.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Microeconomic Data Center yesterday released its November 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations have declined in the short, medium, and long term. According to the report, expectations for rising home prices will continue to decline while the labor market will continue to strengthen. Household income growth expectations rose to a new high. Investors renewed their optimistic bets ahead of the release of economic data on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is expected later this week. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.58%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.43%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.26% on Monday. All three indices closed the day in positive territory.

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In the United States, the PPI, which measures inflation between factories and plants, rose by 0.4% last month. This is a negative sign, indicating that the current rate of inflation may not yet be peaking. A stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report also contributed to a late-session sell-off in stocks. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.90% (-2.50% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.73% (-2.90% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.70% on Friday (-3.31% for the week). All three indices closed the week lower.

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National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said yesterday that the US economy is resilient despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Brian Deese also added that low credit card delinquencies and mortgage problems point to resilient household balance sheets, while the labor market and savings rates also point to more robust growth. Moreover, he pointed to slowing inflation as a positive sign of healthier economic growth. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed at opening levels, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.19%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.51% yesterday. All three indices closed negative.

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Instead of a Santa Claus rally, the US stock indices have been under selling pressure in recent days. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.03%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.44%. The technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 2.00% yesterday. All three indices closed negative.

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The US stock indices declined on Monday after strong data on manufacturing orders and the services sector combined with signs of a robust labor market heightened fears of tight US inflation. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.40%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 1.79%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) was down 1.93% yesterday. All three indices closed negative.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that it might be time to slow rate hikes, raising hopes that the Central Bank is near the end of its tightening cycle. But Friday's jobs report that hiring remained high last month while average hourly earnings rose. The US non-farm payrolls report (NFP) beat market expectations with 263,000 new jobs created compared to the expected 200,000. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.10% (+0.45% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.12% (+1.66% for the week). Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.18% (+2.82% for the week). Despite the slight decline on Friday, all three indices closed the week on a profit.

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The US stock market traded mixed yesterday ahead of the monthly jobs report due today. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.08% at the stock market's close yesterday, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.13% on Thursday. Investors are cautiously awaiting the release of key monthly US employment data, which could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The monthly employment data is expected to show that the economy created fewer jobs in November than in the previous month. Treasury yields fell sharply yesterday on concerns that the economy could face a deeper recession next year, despite early signs of declining consumer inflation.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the rate hikes are likely to slow, but the peak rate will be higher than previously expected, as there is a long way to go to curb inflation. About 70% of traders expect the Fed to slow rate hikes to 50 basis points in December, down from the 75 basis points seen in the previous four meetings. The Fed has targeted the labor market in its fight against inflation, hoping that tighter monetary policy will help reduce demand enough to curb wage growth and, ultimately, inflation. Stock indices jumped after Powell's speech. At the close of the stock market yesterday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 2.18%, and S&P 500 (US500) added 3.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 4.41% on Wednesday.

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The US indices were trading yesterday without a single trend. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.09%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.59% on Tuesday.The Conference Board consumer confidence indicator rose to 100.2 in November from 100.0 in September, beating economists' forecast of 100.0. The confidence data suggest that the Fed needs to continue to be aggressive. The Fed Chair will set the tone for US monetary policy for the rest of the year today, clarifying whether US rate hikes will slow down.

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The US indices fell on Monday due to pressure from Federal Reserve officials, who reiterated the need for higher rates for a more extended period. Civil unrest in China, amid intensifying Covid, also added to the negative sentiment. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.45%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.54%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.58%.

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At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.45% (+2.20% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.03% (+1.51% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.52% on Friday (-0.27% for the week). According to Adobe Analytics, online sales in the US reached a record $9 billion on Black Friday, despite high inflation. Adobe Analytics measures e-commerce by analyzing transactions on Websites and has access to data on purchases at 85% of the top 100 online stores in the United States. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to also be the biggest online shopping day of the season. Record spending by Americans will undoubtedly be reflected in earnings in companies' Q4 reports.

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The US stock indices did not trade yesterday because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Today is Black Friday in the United States, a day of huge store discounts. Financial markets will have a short working day. Stock markets in Europe mostly rose Thursday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.78%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.42%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.68%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday with a 0.02% gain.

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The US indices rose Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting showed support for a soon slowdown in rate hikes. According to the FOMC minutes, Federal Reserve officials expect to move to a smaller interest rate hike soon. The main reason is the concern that a rate hike could seriously affect financial stability and the economy. Markets had largely expected the Fed to reduce the intensity of its policy tightening, and the FOMC minutes confirmed this. About 80% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes to 0.5% in December. This has largely restored investors' interest in risky assets and the stock market. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.59%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.99% yesterday.

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On Monday, US indices closed slightly lower on weakness in energy and consumer stocks amid reports that China has reverted to disruptive restrictions related to the coronavirus. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.13%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.09% yesterday.

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The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have heightened fears of a potential US recession. Central Bank officials say they will not keep raising rates until inflation approaches its annual target range. This is a deterrent to further gains in stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.59% (+0.25% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.48% (-0.32% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.01% (-0.78% for the week).

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The inflation rate in the Eurozone fell from 10.7% to 10.6% on an annualized basis. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel prices) remained at 5% y/y. The data points to a possible peak in inflation. This increases the probability that the ECB will raise interest rates by 0.5% at its next meeting rather than by 0.75%, as previously discussed. Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.23%, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.47%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.75%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) was down by 0.06% on Thursday.

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Yesterday, the US Department of Commerce announced that Retail Sales in October rose by 1.3% (1.0% expected). Stronger than expected US Retail Sales overshadowed the inflation outlook and hope that the Federal Reserve will scale back its aggressive rate hike. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.12%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.83%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.54%.

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Major US indices fell on Monday as hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials tempered investors' hopes that the central bank would ease its aggressive monetary policy. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.12% on Monday.

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At the closing of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.09% (+3.99% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 0.92% (+5.61% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) increased by 1.88% on Friday (+7.67% for the week). However, despite the indices' growth, analysts keep decreasing the forecasts of the US companies' financial results and now expect negative growth of the "blue chips" total earnings in the 4th quarter.

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The decline in inflation indicates that the peak of inflation is likely to be over, which means the US Fed can reduce the pace of interest rate hikes so as not to put additional pressure on the economy. The probability of a 0.5% rate hike in December rose to 81% (vs. 56% the day before). As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 3.70%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 5.54%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was up yesterday by a record increase of 7.35% in 1 day. Near the end of this difficult year, investors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and a chance for a moderate pre-New Year's rally.

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Global stock markets declined yesterday, and the US dollar rose against a basket of major currencies as the US Congressional election and President Joe Biden's agenda remain unclear after the midterm vote. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.95%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 2.08%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 2.48% yesterday. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari warned Wednesday that it is premature to expect a "dovish reversal" from the Fed and that interest rates will continue to rise. Fed spokesman Barkin said Wednesday that fighting inflation could lead to a downturn in the economy, but that's a risk the Fed would have to take.

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The Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.02% at Monday's close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.56%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.49% yesterday. Preliminary results of the US congressional elections show a significant Republican lead, which means the US is close to a government split, likely derailing the Democrats' big spending plans on social issues. This could lead to a rise in the dollar index, as the new Congress will want to deal with inflation more quickly and push the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively. Republicans are willing to accept a recession, but only if it is quick.

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Goldman Sachs told its clients on Monday that there is still a 35% chance of a recession in the US over the next 12 months. While that is twice the normal recession risk, it is well below the average of 63%, according to a recent survey by The Wall Street Journal. A Bloomberg Economics model released in late October determined that the risk of recession over the next 12 months is a staggering 100%. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.31%, while the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.96%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.85% yesterday.

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The US indices continued to decline yesterday. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.46%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) fell by 1.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down 1.73% on Thursday. Apple led the fall of major technology companies, falling more than 3%. Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) also fell yesterday. When these tech giants are down, it will be very difficult for the S&P 500 (US500) to rise because they make up a large market share.

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The US indices continued to fall yesterday after hawkish comments from Jerome Powell. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones indexм(US30) decreased by 1.55%, and the S&P500 index (US500) lost 2.50%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 3.36% on Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75% to a new 14-year high. The Bank believes higher borrowing costs will cool the economy and lower price inflation.

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The JOLTS report indicated yesterday that the number of job openings rose to 10.7 million, missing analysts' expectations. Fed officials began hinting that if Friday's US labor market data indicated strength in the market, the US Fed might not cut the rate of increase until later in the year. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.24%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 0.41%. The NASDAQ Technology Indexм(US100) decreased by 0.89% yesterday.

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The US indices fell yesterday amid weakness in the technology sector and ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting, where a  0.75% interest rate hike is expected. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.39%, while the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 0.75%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) dropped on Monday by 1.03%.

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Economic data Friday showed that US labor costs rose significantly in the third quarter. Still, private sector wage growth slowed, indicating that inflation has either peaked or is close to it. This coincides with recent statements from Fed officials that the US Central. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.49% (+5.37% for the week), and the S&P500 (US500) added 2.46% (+3.70% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.87% on Friday (+2.17% for the week).

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The US stock indices traded yesterday without a single trend. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.61%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.61%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.63% on Thursday. After two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the US economy grew by 2.6% in the third quarter. However, analysts believe the outlook is deteriorating quickly as the cumulative effect of a 300 basis point rate hike is hurting business activity, and the Fed will continue to raise rates through the end of the year to ensure that inflation targets are met. The biggest drop in performance has been in the real estate sector, as home sales have fallen month to month.

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The US stock indices were trading yesterday without a single trend. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.01%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.04% on Wednesday. The US economic data released by the US Commerce Department showed that home sales in September fell by 10.9% from the previous month, while August's 685,000 unit figure was revised downward to 677,000, indicating that the Federal Reserve's aggressive policies continue to hold back the real estate market.

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At yesterday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.07%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.63%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Tuesday. Investor sentiment improved amid growing expectations that the high-interest rate damage to the US economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to soften its hawkish stance. Also, a positive for the market is the reporting season, but tech giants were disappointing yesterday.

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The US stocks continued to rise on Monday. Weaker economic data on business activity caused Treasury yields to fall slightly and pushed stocks higher on the background that the Federal Reserve may consider a less aggressive monetary policy after a 75 basis point rate hike next month. Stocks also rallied ahead of a wave of quarterly results from major tech companies. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.34%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed by 0.86% on Monday.

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The US stock indexes rose Friday after news that US Federal Reserve officials are discussing a 0.5% interest rate hike in November, raising hopes that the central bank may adopt a less aggressive policy. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.47% (3.48% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.37% (2.93% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.31% on Friday (2.69% for the week).

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The US indices were down on Thursday as rising Treasury yields hit 14-year highs, negatively impacting investor sentiment, even though the bulk of quarterly results still indicated that corporate earnings were posting better than expected. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.80%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.61%.

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"The Beige Book" showed a slowing US economy, declining consumer sentiment, and slowing demand. Real estate market data showed a decline in new home construction in the US, and the real estate market is likely to continue its downward trend amid rising interest rates. US stock indices fell yesterday as Treasury yields rose. Quarterly reports, which were mostly better than expected, did not help the indices either. At the close of trading yesterday, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.33%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.85%.

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The US indices rose on Tuesday as better-than-expected quarterly results continued to support stock sentiment for a second straight day, although Apple's decline from session highs held back gains. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.12%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.14%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.77%.

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The US stock market increased on Monday. Quarterly reports from Wall Street's biggest banks mostly exceeded analysts' expectations, which gave investors a positive outlook. Bank of America continued the trend of upbeat quarterly results from other Wall Street banks after reporting better-than-expected results for the third quarter. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.86%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 2.65%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 3.65% on Monday.

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The US dollar rose about 0.45% last week, helped by rising US Treasury bond yields. While the overall annual consumer price Index slowed slightly in September, the core Index increased to its highest level since 1982, a sign that price pressures in the US economy remain consistently high. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.34% (+0.73% for the week), and the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 2.37% (-1.77% for the week). The technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 3.08% on Friday (-3.18% for the week).

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This week, the focus for investors will be on the consumer price Index in the major economies. There will also be plenty of economic statistics on China, with Q3 GDP data worth a special look. Several US Federal Reserve and ECB officials will speak this week. Investors should not forget about the 3rd quarter US earnings season. Companies due to report earnings next week include Tesla, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson.
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The US consumer price Index rose by 0.4% last month, but in annual terms, the Index declined from 8.3% to 8.2%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% last month, and in annual terms, the core Index increased from 6.3% to 6.6%, the highest level since 1982. So overall inflation has shown signs of declining, while core inflation has shown signs of accelerating. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 2.83%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) added 2.83%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.23% yesterday.

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A decline in inflation could give a sharp boost to stock indices as US Federal Reserve policy becomes less aggressive in upcoming meetings. Conversely, an inflation acceleration would boost the dollar index and government bond yields, leading to even more stock declines. The US Producer Price Index, which shows the rate of inflation between companies, rose another 0.4% last month, but on an annualized basis, the index fell from 8.7% to 8.5%. So there is hope for a decline in consumer inflation. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.33%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.09% yesterday.

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Stock markets continue to fall amid hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve indicating the need to tighten monetary policy further and keep rates higher. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.12%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.10% yesterday.

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The US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard hinted that the US Central Bank would continue its mission to reduce inflation despite the worsening growth outlook. The policymaker predicts that the recovery in the year's second half will be limited. A 75 basis point hike in November and a peak rate of 4.60-4.70% is now the main target, but additional hawkish comments could spur additional panic amid a longer tightening cycle. The White House also added fuel to the fire after it unveiled new export restrictions on US companies selling semiconductor chips and other manufacturing equipment to China, which led to the fall of tech companies. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.32%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.75%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 1.04%.

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This week, the main focus for traders will be the US inflation rate data. Economists are predicting a slight decline in inflation, which will allow investors to return to riskier assets on expectations that the Fed will be less aggressive in raising interest rates. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting on Wednesday should indicate how officials feel about the economy and the inflation outlook. The UK is due to release monthly GDP data and labor market data. Oil prices will also remain in the spotlight after OPEC+ announced the largest production cuts since 2020. And at the end of the week, the banking sector will open the earning season for the third quarter in the United States.
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The US 10-year bond yields rose nearly 10 basis points to 3.85% after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that the central bank is "very far" from suspending its tightening campaign. Kashkari's comments followed a series of hawkish remarks from other officials. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Thursday that the US Central Bank's discount rate is likely to reach 4.5-4.75% by the spring of 2023 as the Fed increases the cost of borrowing to reduce too much inflation. A day earlier, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that investors are wrong to anticipate monetary policy easing in 2023. Such hawkish rhetoric brought negativity back to the financial markets, which triggered some sell-off in stocks. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.15%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.30%. Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed the day down by 0.35%. At the Fed meeting in November, money markets are pricing in a more than 85% chance of a fourth straight 75 basis point rate hike.

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After a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike by the RBA this week and the UN asking central banks to slow interest rate hikes, the fundamental narrative shifted toward a potential "turnaround" by the Fed toward a slower interest rate hike. This has helped support stock markets. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.14%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.20%. NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.30%.

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that job openings fell from 11.17 million to 10.05 million during August. On the one hand, the news is negative. Still, on the other hand, investors have begun to wonder if the slowdown seen in the US economy will cause the Federal Reserve to adjust its rate hike trajectory and be less aggressive. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.80%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 3.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.69% on Tuesday.

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The US stocks rose on the first trading day of October after a challenging September. The Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500) indices experienced their worst months since March 2020 and were dangerously close to their June lows. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.79%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.59%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.91% on Monday.

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At the close of trading on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.71% (-2.75% for the week), while the S&P500 (US500) was 1.51% lower (-2.64% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.75% on Friday (-0.39% for the week). As the Fed tightened its monetary policy to tame the strongest inflation in decades, the US Treasury yields jumped to their highest level in more than a decade, causing stocks to plummet.

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This week's main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show whether the Fed's series of aggressive rate hikes impact the labor market. The Central Banks of Australia and New Zealand will hold regular meetings, where interest rates are expected to increase.
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According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week unexpectedly fell to 193,000, down from 209,000 the previous week. This is the lowest level in four months. Other data showed that US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, real GDP was down 1.6%. Thus, the US economy has already had two official quarters of declining GDP, indicating a recession in the economy. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.54% at the stock market's close yesterday, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.11%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 2.07% by the end of the day.

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The US and European stock markets rebounded slightly on Wednesday after the Bank of England said it would intervene in the bond market to curb the devastating rise in borrowing costs. Investors were alarmed last week, particularly by a sharp rise in bond yields. Central Banks sought to raise interest rates to rein in red-hot inflation before it sent the global economy into recession. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.88%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.97%. Technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.39% on the day.

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The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.43% at the close of the stock market yesterday, while the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.23%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.69% by the end of the day. The decline is getting deeper on Wall Street despite rising consumer confidence in September. The S&P 500 fell yesterday to its lowest level since December 2020, bringing this month's loss nearly 8%. Ned Davis Research now thinks there is a 98% chance of an impending global recession.

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At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.11%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 1.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.63% on Monday. The Fed's aggressive tightening campaign has pushed the US dollar to new multi-year highs, and many are worried about the consequences of such a strong dollar. The US 2-year bond yields have reached 4.34%. In addition, a strong dollar could lead companies to release weak forecasts for the coming quarters, which could further exacerbate the drop in stock indices.

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The US indices continue to be under pressure due to the aggressive roadmap of the US Federal Reserve. At the close of trading on Tuesday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.35%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.84%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.37% yesterday. Ahead of the Fed's remaining meetings in 2022, analysts believe there will likely be another 75 basis point hike in November before the pace slows to 50 basis points in December as the Fed approaches the rate cap in early 2023.
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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates and changed its outlook for further rate hikes, indicating a period of higher interest rates. The prospect of higher interest rates over the long term has put pressure on growing sectors of the economy. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.70%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.71%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.79% yesterday.
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The US indices fell on Tuesday as investors raised their bearish rates over fears that the Federal Reserve might signal a continuation of aggressive rate hikes. The Fed's willingness to continue tightening monetary policy brings the economic recession closer. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.01%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.52% yesterday.
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The volatile rise in US stocks this year shows no signs of easing as data on high inflation makes it likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates further, increasing the chances of a recession. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.45% (-4.16% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.72% (-5.15% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.90% (-5.97% for the week).
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Global stock markets look set for another volatile week amid fears that higher interest rates will lead to economic problems. This week investors' attention should be focused on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Central Banks of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, and Norway. Elsewhere except Japan, interest rates are expected to rise by 0.5-0.75%.
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Rosenberg Research's chief economist expects the US Central Bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points when it meets later this month. The US retail sales rose unexpectedly after falling the previous month. The value of total retail purchases increased by 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised drop of 0.4% in July. Excluding fuel prices, retail sales increased by 0.8%. The S&P 500 Index fell Thursday as energy and technology stocks fell, with the latter under pressure from rising Treasury yields as investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise its interest rate further to curb inflation. At yesterday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.56%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.43%.
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According to a report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday, the Producer Price Index, which reflects wholesale price levels, fell by 0.1%. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the PPI rose by 0.2%. The PPI report fleshes out the US inflation picture and makes it not as bad as the August Consumer Price Index report. Inflation is clearly slowing as gas prices fall. But the process is slow, and inflation will likely remain well above the Fed's target for at least a few more quarters. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.09%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.34%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 0.29% on Wednesday.
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Federal Reserve officials expect another major interest rate hike this month as they rush to curb demand.At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.19% (+1.09% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.53% (+1.82% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.27% (+4.72% for the week).
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There are many Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports coming out this week for August. Germany, Spain, and the United States will publish their report on Tuesday, the United Kingdom will publish its report on Wednesday, France will publish its report on Thursday, and Italy, with the Eurozone, will publish their reports on Friday. Analysts forecast lower inflation in the US, while inflation in the UK and Europe is expected to be at the same level, although there may be surprises upwards.
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The US stock indices ended the week lower on Friday, as early gains amid a report on Nonfarm Payrolls were overshadowed by worries about the energy crisis in Europe. The US economy added 315,000 jobs in August, still a solid indicator showing that the economy remains resilient despite rising interest rates, high inflation, and sluggish consumer spending. Friday's government report also showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a low of 3.5%. Analysts believe the decline in US job gains in August may help the Fed's fight against inflation. At the close of trading on Friday the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.07% (-2.70% for the week) and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.07% (-2.73% for the week). The Technology Sector Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.31% (-1.06% for the week).
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Despite Monday being a bank holiday in the US and Canada, this economic week is very busy. First of all, investors' attention is focused on the situation in Europe around the Nord Stream pipeline. Secondly, the OPEC+ countries will hold an important meeting on Monday, where there could be surprises in the form of oil production cuts. The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where an aggressive 0.75% rate hike is expected. The Central Banks of Australia and Canada also plan to raise rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Cato Institute conference on Thursday, and investors will be watching for any clues as to the Fed's future plans. A number of countries will also release second-quarter GDP data, which is important for recessionary estimates. Also, don't forget that Britain will announce the name of a new prime minister on Monday.
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The ISM Manufacturing Index was 52.8 in August, unchanged from July and beating the consensus forecast of 51.9. Expectations for a third straight 75 basis point rate hike in the US at the Fed's September 20-21 meeting are rising on solid economic data, with Fed funds futures indicating a 77.1% chance of such an increase. Market attention now turns to the August US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be one of the key reports ahead of the Fed meeting. Although the US economy contracted in the first half of the year, the robust labor market defies talk of a recession and encourages the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates. At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) added 0.46%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.26%.
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At the close of the US stock exchange yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.88% (monthly result -3.93%). S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.78% (-3.97% for the month). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.12% (monthly result -0.15%). Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that the Fed would need to raise the federal funds rate to just above 4% by early next year and hold it at that level for a while.
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Major Wall Street indices fell on Tuesday as a surge in US job openings pointed to a strong labor market, adding to concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive approach to lowering inflation. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.96%, and the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.12% yesterday. Traders raised their rates for the third straight 75 basis point increase in September to 76.5% from 70%. All investors are now focused on the Nonfarm Payroll data for August, which will be released on Friday.
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The decline in technology, which began on Friday, continued into the new trading week under pressure from rising Treasury bond yields. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.57% at Monday's close of the stock market. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.63% yesterday. The Jackson Hole document warns that without fiscal tightening, there will be a vicious cycle of rising nominal interest rates, inflation, economic stagnation, and debt.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled at a speech in Jackson Hole that the US Сentral Bank will likely continue to raise interest rates and leave them elevated for a while to suppress inflation, and rejected any idea that the Fed would change course soon. Powell added that lowering inflation to the 2% target is the Сentral Bank's top priority right now, even though consumers and businesses will feel the economic pain. He reiterated that another unusually large increase in the benchmark lending rate might be appropriate when officials meet next month. Amid these statements, the US stock indices saw a sell-off on Friday. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 3.03% (-3.88% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 3.37% (-3.28% for the week) at Friday's close of the stock market. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 3.94% (-3.05% for the week).
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech became the last week's main event following the annual Symposium in Jackson Hole. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report will become the week's main event as it is the most important data for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the labor market will add 295,000 jobs in August after 528,000 in July. The data on the preliminary inflation rate in the Eurozone should also be on the trader's list since the ECB meeting is two weeks away. Also, investors should not miss the Manufacturing PMI data in various countries. Falling below 50 is a serious slowdown in the sector, which usually leads to a recession.
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The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States, defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that extends throughout the economy, lasting more than several months, usually manifested in production, employment, and real income. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.98%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.41%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 1.67%.
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The US durable goods orders were unchanged month-over-month in July. Unfinished US home sales fell in July for the sixth time this year to the lowest level since the pandemic began, extending a sharp decline in the housing market. The number of signed contracts was down 22.5% from a year ago. Rising interest rates always negatively affect the housing market, so things will only worsen in the near future. At the stock market close yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.18%, while the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.29%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.41%.
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Yesterday, the US stock indices fell sharply after PMI data showed that US private sector activity was weaker than expected in August. On the one hand, this is a sign that the US Federal Reserve might become less aggressive in tightening monetary policy. On the other hand, Fed spokesman Kashkari indicated yesterday that the Fed must continue aggressively tightening monetary policy. Analysts and investors are now waiting for US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.47%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.22%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed at the opening level.
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US indices fell sharply on Monday as rising market sectors, including technology and consumer goods, came under pressure from rising Treasury bond yields amid fears that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a hawkish surprise at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.91%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 2.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 2.55% yesterday.
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The US stock indices were trading lower on Friday. By the closing of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-0.01% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.29% (-0.96% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.01% (-2.24% for the week). Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft all fell, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slowed the most. Higher rates tend to be negative for technology companies and growth stocks. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that US Central Bank officials still have plenty of time before they need to decide how much to raise interest rates in September. The recovery in US stocks is inspiring confidence among investors. The S&P 500 (US500) rebounded about 16% from its low after its worst first half since 1970, helped by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and hopes the economy can avoid a recession.
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This week, investors will focus on US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Central Bank's annual conference in Jackson Hole, where he will share his views on the future trajectory of interest rates. Fed executives reiterated that there is still much work to be done in their fight against inflation, pushing back against expectations of peak inflation. Investors should also keep an eye on the US GDP data as fears about the prospect of a recession persist. Also, on Tuesday, Eurozone countries will publish important data on manufacturing and services PMI.
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According to the National Association of Realtors monthly report, home sales fell nearly 6% in July compared to June. Compared to the same month last year, home sales are down about 20%. The US real estate market is already in a recession regarding economic impact. But other data so far show no signs of weakness. Philadelphia's Monthly Manufacturing Index rose to 6.2 this month from a negative 12.3 in July, topping all 30 estimates by Reuters economists. The number of US new jobless claims also fell moderately last week. Consumer price inflation and employment data for August, due out before the Fed's September meeting, will likely affect the size of the rate hike. Traders now expect the benchmark rate to peak at 3.5% in March, although some Fed officials favor 4% or more. The US stock indices rose yesterday. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.06%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.23%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.21%.
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The US Retail Sales data on Wednesday were good, which helped ease fears of an economic slowdown. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed Fed officials were concerned the US Central Bank might raise rates too much as part of its commitment to control inflation. Some Fed participants noted that interest-rate-sensitive sectors were starting to show signs of slowing and that some felt there was a risk of over-tightening. After the minutes were released, the probability of a 75 basis point hike in September fell to 40% from 52% earlier Wednesday, with a 50 basis point hike now seen as a 60% probability. The US stock indices were trading lower yesterday. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.50%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.72%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.25%.
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The US Industrial Production for July reports a 0.6% month-over-month increase compared to the consensus forecast of 0.3%. This report provides more evidence that Q3 GDP should be good, but the outlook for Q4 looks tougher. The NY Empire manufacturing survey was weak on Monday and pointed to low year-end orders and activity. There are also growing problems with the real estate sector. The US housing starts fell by 9.6% m/m in July to an annualized rate of 1.446k compared to the consensus forecast of 1.527k. This is the weakest level since February 2021. The US stock indices traded yesterday without a single trend. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.71%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.19%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.19%.
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US stock indexes were trading up yesterday. By Monday's close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.45%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.62%. Investors are still focused on signals of weakening inflation in the US and an improvement in the country's economic assessment. However, the Fed is only 60-70% of the way through its interest rate hike cycle and will begin trimming the balance sheet starting in September.
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The University of Michigan index for August 2022 rose to 55.1 from 52.5. According to the report, the US inflation is expected to be 5% by year-end (5.2% previously), with the 5-year inflation rate rising from 2.9% to 3.0%. Other data showed that US import prices declined in July for the first time in seven months due to lower fuel and non-fuel costs. The US stock indices traded higher on Friday. By closing the stock market Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.27% (+2.69% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 1.73% (+2.99% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.09% (+2.70% for the week).
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This week, investors will focus on the FOMC minutes of the July meeting, which will analyze for clues about the size of September rate hikes. The UK will publish data on inflation, which is expected to approach the 10% mark. In Europe, an important second-quarter GDP report will be released. The Central Banks of New Zealand and Norway hold monetary policy meetings where significant interest rate hikes are expected. Traders should also not miss the Consumer Price Index data in Japan and Canada, as well as the monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
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US Federal Reserve officials tried to temper expectations for looser policy, and Neel Kashkari said at a conference on Wednesday that the Central Bank is a long way from declaring victory. Kashkari also added that the Central Bank's proposal to cut interest rates early next year is unrealistic. In an interview with the Financial Times, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also warned that it is too early for the US Central Bank to "declare victory" in the fight against inflation. Amid such comments, stock indices fell slightly. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.58%.
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The US stock market rose Wednesday after the release of inflation data for July, which showed that price pressures eased. The overall Consumer Price Index for July was 8.5%, down from the 8.7% expected by economists. Investors now see a 50 basis point rate hike as the most likely scenario for the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Stock indices jumped sharply on the news, while the dollar index saw its biggest one-day drop in 5 months. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.63%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.89%.
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The US stock indices were trading lower yesterday ahead of the inflation data, indicating that investors were probably closing their positions before the important report. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.18%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.19%.
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The US stock indices traded mixed on Monday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.09%, while the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.10% yesterday. Tesla (TSLA) added 1%, driving consumer stocks higher as sentiment about electric vehicles was boosted by a new climate bill passed by the US Senate over the weekend. It includes nearly $400 billion over a 10-year period to fund energy-related programs and expand and improve existing tax credits for electric vehicles.
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The US stock indices traded without a single trend. At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.26%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.41%. The US Labor Department reported yesterday that about 260,000 people filed unemployment claims during the previous week, 6,000 more than the previous week. The Nonfarm Payrolls report today will also serve as an overview of the Federal Reserve's likely path for monetary policy, as the Central Bank emphasized labor market strength as evidence that the economy remains resilient and capable of resisting further rate hikes.
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Fed officials reiterated Wednesday their determination to curb high inflation. One official noted that a half-percent hike in the Central Bank's key interest rate next month may be enough to achieve that goal. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.29%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.56%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.59%.
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According to analysts at JPMorgan, the US stock market is ready for further growth, likely starting as early as the second half of this year. Easing inflation expectations and falling bond yields indicate that the peak of the hawkish sentiment has probably already passed, and for this reason, analysts at JPMorgan believe that the US economy will avoid recession, despite the negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters. JPMorgan's year-end target for the S&P 500 is 4,800 points, which represents a growth potential of 17% from current levels. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.22%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.66%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.10%.
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According to the latest ISM report, economic activity in the US manufacturing sector rose in July, with the economy posting its 26th consecutive month of growth. But it should be noted that there is a downward trend in growth, and the PMI indicator is approaching the level of 50. Going below 50 is usually a harbinger of recession. At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.14%, and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.13% on Monday.
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The US Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, closely monitored by the Fed, is at its highest since January 1982. The PCE increased to 6.8% in June. The core PCE (which excludes food and fuel prices) was up 4.8% from a year ago and up 0.1% from May. The Employment Cost Index, another figure that Fed policymakers keep a close eye on, rose by 1.3% in the second quarter. The Index added 5.1% in 12 months, a record for a series of data tracked since 2002. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates another 0.5% in September, according to the FedWatch CME Group tracker. However, the probability of a larger three-quarter-point hike rose to 38% Friday morning. As the stock market closed Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.97% (+2.80% for the week, +6.73% for the month ), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.42% (+4.15% for the week, +9.11% for the month). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.88% on Friday (+4.67% for the week, +12.35% for the month).
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This week's main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States and interest rate meetings of the Central Banks of England and Australia. Analysts forecast that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates by 0.5%. Also, this week there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing PMIs and services PMI data, which will indicate global economic trends in key economies for the first month of the third quarter. It should also be noted that it is the reporting season now – companies are showing their results for the previous quarter.
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On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose after an unexpected slowdown in the US economy, sparking optimism that the Federal Reserve will be forced to revise the pace of rate hikes downward. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.03%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.21%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.08% yesterday.
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The US Federal Reserve yesterday raised interest rates by 75 basis points and confirmed that further increases would be appropriate to contain high inflation, which is putting pressure on global economic activity. The Fed said that some parts of the economy, such as spending and production, have weakened. However, there has been significant job growth in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains low. At a press conference following the monetary policy announcement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell supported the idea that the central bank would hold another rate hike in September. However, he said that a slower pace of increases might be needed to give the Fed time to evaluate the implications. It is positive for the market, as the peak of the Fed's hawkish mood has passed. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.37%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.62%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 4.06% yesterday.
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US consumer confidence fell in July for the third month in a row, indicating a slowdown in growth early in the third quarter. The index was negative, with values worse than economists' estimates. New home sales in the US fell just over 8% in June from a month earlier and were down double digits from a year earlier, suggesting a weakening housing market due to the rise in mortgages. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.71%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.59% yesterday.
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The Dow Jones index had a positive start to the week on Monday as a rally in energy offset weakness in the technology sector ahead of quarterly reports from major technology companies and a Federal Reserve meeting. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.13%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.35% yesterday.
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In the US, weekly jobless claims hit a five-month high, while existing home sales declined for the fifth straight month. These are signs of problems in the labor and housing markets. According to some analysts, the US Federal Reserve may officially announce the beginning of the recession in the United States this week. The US economy is already down 1.6% in the first quarter, and the second quarter is also negative, so, technically, this recession is possible. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.43% (+1.34% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.93% (+2.00% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.87% on Friday (+2.36% for the week).
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The most important meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy and interest rates will take place this week. The main question is whether the rate will be raised by 0.75% or 1%. Right now 80/20 probability in favor of a 75 basis point increase. The world's biggest companies are reporting: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. At the end of the week, there will be a lot of data on the Consumer Price Index and GDP from different countries. While much of this will be retrospective, it may still hint at what will happen with the economy and the central bank's behavior.
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Wall Street closed up yesterday thanks to a jump in tech stocks on optimistic earnings. At the close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.15%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.59%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.58%. According to Definitiv, the S&P 500 (US 500) will show a 5.9% year-over-year gain this earnings season, down from an estimate of 6.8% at the beginning of the quarter. Unrestrained inflation initially led markets to estimate a 100 basis point interest rate hike at next week's upcoming Fed meeting, but 80% probability is now on the side of a 75 basis point hike.
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US stock indices rose on Tuesday as investors temporarily put aside recession fears and dived into the reporting season. Investors are taking a close look at factors, how companies are struggling with higher costs and persistent supply problems, and how consumer behavior is changing amid persistently high inflation. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.43%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.11% yesterday.
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On Monday, US stock indices closed in the negative territory. By the close of trading on the stock exchange Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.69%, S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.84%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.81%. Shares of Apple fell by 2% after reports that the company will slow hiring and spending, becoming the next tech giant to take such a step as fears of an economic slowdown hit the sector. IT equipment and services maker IBM beat expectations for quarterly earnings on Monday but warned that the strong dollar would negatively impact the company's results. The Federal Reserve's hawkish activity and heightened geopolitical tensions have caused the dollar to rise against a basket of currencies over the past year, prompting companies with large international operations to temper their forecasts. A stronger dollar is eating into the profits of companies with extensive international operations and converting foreign currencies into dollars.
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Friday's macro data showed that US retail sales rose more than expected in June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's index of general business conditions increased to +11.1 from -1.2. A value above zero indicates growth and the July figure beat all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. At the same time, the Fed Bank Business Conditions Index fell more than 20 points to -6.2, the biggest drop since the terrorist attacks in September 2001. Also late last week the US Federal Reserve released fresh statistics on the change in assets on the balance sheet. The data showed a $69.2 billion drop in assets, while reserves in the banking system increased. The growing surplus of dollar liquidity in the financial system led to the closing of longs on the US currency, which led to some decline of the dollar on Thursday and Friday. At the same time, stock indices were rising for the last 2 days of last week. By the close of stock markets on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 2.15% (+0.03% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 1.92% (-0.46% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.79% (-0.63% for the week).
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This week investors' attention should be focused on the ECB Interest Rate Decision as well as inflation data in leading countries. Rising inflation is always a reason for the central bank to tighten monetary policy, so high inflation is very often accompanied by an increase in the national currency. The European Central Bank is meeting on Thursday and the bank is expected to raise rates for the first time in a decade. The earning season is gaining momentum in the United States and Europe. Several blue chips are due to report this week. Traders should also keep a close eye on the oil market. According to preliminary information, US President Joe Biden has agreed with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohamed Bin Salman to pump more oil, so oil prices could be very volatile this week.
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The US Producer Price Index, which shows the rate of inflation between factories, added 1.1% over the last month while it was expected to rise 0.8%. On an annualized basis, the index reached a record 11.3%. Meanwhile, yesterday Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bullard said that they favor a 75 basis point hike at the US central bank's July meeting, making a more aggressive move of 100 basis points less likely. Fed funds futures now indicate a 31% chance of a 100 basis point increase and a 69% chance of a 75 basis point increase. But analysts still expect the dollar to rise as it benefits from the higher prospect of rate hikes than other global central banks.
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Stock indices reacted to the news on US inflation data with a sharp drop. By the close of the Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.67%, while S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.45%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.15% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices were down. The gap in the yield curve inversion between 2-year and 10-year bonds reached 25 points yesterday, which also is negative for the stock market and the economy.
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Уesterday, the yield curve for 2- and 10-year bonds approached the close since 2007, with the curve remaining inverted. The widening spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds signals a clear recession warning. "But Q2 results for banks should be solid, as it is too early for banks to make meaningful provisions for potential credit losses in the event of a potential U.S. recession," Deutsche Bank said in a report. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.62%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.92% at the close of trading on Tuesday. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.95% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.
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The US Stock Indices fell on Monday as investors expected a weak reporting season and negative inflation data for June. Despite a strong labor market, investors are still wary of a recession and waiting to hear from company executives about costs, supply chains, and their views on business conditions over the next few months. "There's nervousness about earnings season and the CPI report, but I think the market has a sense as to what CPI is going to bring this week," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. As the stock market closed on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.52% and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.15%. Yesterday the Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) decreased by 2.26%. At the end of the day all three indices were on the plus side.
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The US Labor Department reported Friday that US employers added 372,000 jobs in June, about 100,000 more than economists had expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent for the third month. As the stock market closed Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.15% (+1.95% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08% (+3.13% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.12% on Friday (+5.71% for the week). All three indices ended the week in the black.
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Last week, investors were mainly focused on the FOMC minutes and Nonfarm Payrolls data. The FOMC minutes showed that the Fed will likely raise rates by 0.75% at the July meeting. A strong jobs report also boosts the prospect of a 75bp Fed hike. This week, the main focus of investors will be on inflation data in the United States and Germany. Also, this week the central banks of Canada and New Zealand will meet on interest rate decisions. Analysts are predicting interest rate hikes by 0.5% in both cases. Investors should also keep on the start of the US earning period for the second quarter of 2022.
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The US Federal Reserve officials Bullard and Waller had nothing new to say yesterday. The labor market remains resilient, monetary tightening is already affecting the economy, and expectations for economic growth - that was said many times before. To summarize, the US Fed remains hawkish. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting, released Wednesday, indicated another 75 basis point hike in July. US indices jumped yesterday thanks to a rebound in energy stocks on the back of rising oil prices. The Dow Jones (US30) added 1.12% at the close of trading, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.50%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.28% on Thursday. All three indices closed on the plus side at the end of the day.
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Investors looked closely at the Federal Reserve's latest FOMC protocol, which provided new data on the Central Bank's monetary policy and the fight against inflation. According to the latest FOMC minutes, the Fed will also raise interest rates by 0.75% at its July meeting. The committee also lowered its growth forecast for the second half of 2022 and 2023. The minutes reflect participants' concerns that a rate hike has a "greater than expected" impact on economic growth. Participants have not seen enough evidence that supply constraints have loosened enough to help control inflation. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.36%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.35% on Wednesday. All three indices ended the day in the green territory.
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Yesterday, the dollar index showed an impressive rally and added almost 1.4% during the day, setting a 20-year record. Analysts attribute this growth to the fact that the FOMC minutes will be released today, indicating that the Fed will again raise the interest rate by 0.75% at its next meeting. Investors remain concerned about the recession caused by monetary tightening, despite possibly reducing some US tariffs on Chinese goods. The looming energy crisis in Europe amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and threats to corporate earnings are also at the forefront of investor concerns. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.75% on Tuesday.
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The US ISM manufacturing index decreased to 54.5 from 56.1. Despite the decline, the indicator is above 50 and above analysts' expectations. But the overall manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since July 2020 amid stagnant factory production and falling new orders. The manufacturing sector is a drag on GDP, and analysts believe this resistance will increase through the summer. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.06% (-1.38% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.05% (-2.43% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.90% (-4.57% for the week). All three indices were down by the end of the week.
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This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of significant events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week’s main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report will be worse than the previous month, but the unemployment rate will not change. FOMC protocol on Wednesday will give investors some insight into how FED policymakers see the future trajectory of interest rates as markets remain focused on the prospect of a recession. The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its June meeting on Thursday when it announced plans to deliver its first interest rate hike. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold an interest rate meeting. Analysts predict that the bank will raise the rate by 0.5%. As a rule, rising interest rates are accompanied by a strengthening national currency.
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The inflation rate, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, was 6.3% in May, unchanged from April's level. Personal spending increased by 0.2% in May, missing forecasts of a 0.4% increase, and April's rate was revised down to 0.6% from 0.9%. Recession fears are growing after the Federal Reserve raised rates to combat rising inflation. Chronically high inflation has become a major threat to the economy and a political danger to President Joe Biden and the Democrats. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.82%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.33% yesterday.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the Central Bank's commitment to tighten monetary policy further to reduce inflation as GDP data showed a faster-than-expected decline in quarterly economic growth. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2022. This situation led to a rise in the US Dollar Index and a decline in the major indices. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.26%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.03%.
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The mood of investors and analysts changes almost every day. Yesterday, US stock indexes saw a new massive sell-off as gloomy consumer confidence data once again dampened investor optimism and heightened fears that the Federal Reserve's aggressive fight against inflation will lead to a recession in the economy. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since February 2021, and short-term expectations reached their most pessimistic level in nearly a decade. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.56%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.01%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 2.98%. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.
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On Monday, the US dollar fell slightly from a 20-year high hit earlier this month. It followed positive US economic data that eased expectations of an aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, stock indices also showed weakness, but usually, when the dollar index declines, indices rise. At the close of trading on Monday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.20% and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.30%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.72% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 2.68% (+5.31% per week), while the S&P 500 index (US500) added 3.06% (+6.71% per week). Technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 3.34% on Friday (+8.51% per week). All three indices closed in the plus as the week ended.
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There will be several important events in the coming week. The main event will be the data on the inflation rate in Europe. The ECB is planning its first rate hike in a long time at its July meeting, but a sharp rise in inflation may encourage policymakers to go for a more aggressive step. On Monday, starts a three-day forum with the main topic "Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world". The forum will conclude with speeches by the heads of the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England on Wednesday, so investors should keep a close eye on that. Also, this week, the US and Canadian GDP data will be released. Of course, investors should not miss the meeting of OPEC+ countries, which can have a significant impact on oil prices.
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On Thursday, US central bank governor Jerome Powell said to the House of Representatives that The Federal Reserve's commitment to curbing 40-year inflation is "unconditional," but it carries the risk of rising unemployment. On Wednesday, Powell told the US Senate Banking Committee that the Fed is not trying to trigger a recession but is "certainly possible" due to global events beyond its control, particularly the effects of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, Powell expects US economic growth to accelerate in the year's second half. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.64% and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.95%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.62%.
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell visited the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and will visit the House of Representatives today. Mr. Powell noted that the Fed is "strongly committed" to curbing inflation and pointed out that at this point, the economy is strong enough to withstand the interest rate increases used as a tool to achieve this goal. Powell also said that the pace of future rate hikes would depend on what inflation numbers they see. But the possibility of a recession due to rising interest rates remains. At the same time, a Fed rate hike will not likely result in lower gas or food prices. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.15%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.15% on Wednesday.
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At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.15% and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.45%. The NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 2.51% on Tuesday. All 3 indices closed the day in the plus. US Fed member Barkin said yesterday he supported a 75bp interest rate hike at the June meeting. Barkin also pointed out that US inflation is broad-based, and it is important to get back to the 2% target as soon as possible. Barkin will likely support another 0.75% rate hike at the next meeting. The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be addressing Congress tonight, where investors will be looking for additional clues as to whether another 75 basis point rate hike is expected at the Fed's July meeting. If Powell is hawkish tonight, investors could see another jump in the US dollar as government bond yields rise again. This will push gold down.
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The Fed and other global central banks are trying to suppress inflation by aggressively raising interest rates. Major US stock indexes fell for the third week in a row due to concerns about the growing recession probability. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.13% (-4.03% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.22% (-4.25% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.43% (-1.72% for the week). All three indices were down on the week.
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This week's primary focus is Jerome Powell's speech to Congress and ECB officials. Friday's Eurozone inflation data showed a sharp increase in consumer prices, so now it is essential to see how aggressively the ECB will behave and whether there are discussions about a 0.5% rate hike at the July meeting. Also, the UK, Canada, and Japan will update the inflation data for May, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
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The US initial jobless claims were 229,000, down 3,000 from the previous week. Thus, the US labor market remains strong. But as fears of recession intensified following central bank actions worldwide, the US stock indices closed on Thursday with a sharp decline. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.41% and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 3.24%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 4.08%. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.
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The Federal Reserve surprised markets on Wednesday with a larger-than-expected 0.75% rate hike as sustained high inflation forced the Central Bank to make its biggest rate hike since 1994. This was more hawkish than the economists' expectations, who had forecasted a 0.5% increase. A few weeks before the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Committee was not actively considering a 0.75% rate hike, and made it clear that a 0.5% hike would be appropriate at the June and July meetings. But several signs that inflation may persist longer than feared led the central bank to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening in order to keep a lag in the fight against inflation.
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US stock indices continued to decline on Tuesday as investors are preparing for an aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve today. The US central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points after a sharper-than-expected rise in consumer prices in May. Also, investors' attention was focused on the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could show the Fed's additional inflation criteria. However, the data did not provide any new clues to the markets. The US PPI for May was 10.8% y/y, below expectations and unchanged from April's data. In addition, the core PPI for May was below consensus expectations. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.37%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.67%. At the end of the day, all three indices were down. The Treasury yields reached a ten-year high, and the dollar reached a 20-year peak.
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On Monday, the US indices fell sharply and moved into bear market territory after stocks of rising companies collapsed. Treasury yields rose on expectations that the Federal Reserve will be tougher on inflation. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to its highest level since 2011 amid fears that the Fed will be forced to resort to an acceleration of monetary tightening after Friday's unexpected rise in inflation data. According to the WSJ, Fed officials may approve a 0.75% interest rate hike at their meeting tomorrow. As the stock market closed Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.79%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 3.87%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 2.22% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices decreased, and the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) hit a 52-week low on Monday.
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The US stock indexes recorded their most significant weekly percentage decline since January and fell sharply Friday after the May inflation report dashed hopes that price pressures may have peaked. Data released on Friday showed that US consumer inflation jumped to 8.6% y/y in May, the biggest gain since 1981. Gasoline prices hit a record high, and the cost of food rose sharply. The core Consumer Price Index (which excludes food and fuel prices) failed to fall below 6.0%. Rapid price pressures force consumers to change their spending habits, heightening recession fears. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June also hit a new record, falling to 50.2 from 58.1. This situation caused the dollar index to spike and stock indices to fall. At the closing of the stock exchange on Friday Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.73% (-4.96% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) fell by 2.91% (-5.66% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 3.52% (-7.05% for the week). All three indices were down for the week.
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A week full of important events is coming. Investors will be most interested in the Fed interest rate meeting, expecting a 0.5% rate hike. Also, this week there will be meetings of the Bank of England and the Central Banks of Switzerland and Japan. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the fifth time in a row amid a growing cost of living crisis. Traders' attention should also be focused on speeches by heads of central banks who often tell which sentiments prevail inside. Special attention should also be paid to the inflation data in Europe, which will be published at the end of the week.
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The US indices fell sharply yesterday ahead of inflation data. At the close of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.94%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 2.75%. Analysts expect US inflation to add 0.7% for the month, but given yesterday's drop in the indices, the figure may be worse than expected, as investors tend to price in the worst-case scenarios. If, on the contrary, the Consumer Price Index falls and inflation starts to suppress, in this case, the Fed might postpone some of its future interest rate hikes or act less aggressively, and that would already be positive for stock indices.
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The broader tech sector was under pressure from rising Treasury yields yesterday, with 10-year bond yields exceeding 3% amid continued bets that the Federal Reserve will stay on course to raise rates to fight inflation. The disappointing comments triggered a wave of analyst downgrades on Wall Street. As a result, US stock indices fell yesterday. At the close of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.81%, while the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.73% yesterday.
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US stock indices increased yesterday and closed higher for the second day in a row amid gains in technology and energy stocks. The Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.80% at the close of the day, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.95%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.94% yesterday. The US is currently facing an "unacceptable level of inflation," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at Tuesday's Senate Finance Committee hearing. At the hearing, Yellen praised the state of the economic recovery, which she said has been marked by strong economic growth and historically low unemployment, but added that challenges remain. The US economy faces macroeconomic challenges, Yellen said, including unacceptable levels of inflation, as well as headwinds from the impact of the pandemic on supply chains and the effects of supply-side disruptions in oil and food markets resulting from Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
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At the close of the US stock market on Monday the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.05%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.31%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) increased by 0.40% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices closed in small plus. On Monday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would release the results of its annual stress test of the nation's largest banks on June 23. Investors closely watch the test results, which examine how large bank portfolios would behave in a hypothetical recession. It shows how much capital banks would need to hold as a safety cushion in case of losses.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.05% (+0.50% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.63% (+0.76% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 2.47% (+1.21% for the week). All three indices ended the week in small gains. Despite concerns about slowing economic growth and high inflation, the US economy added 390,000 jobs in May, better than expected. Weaker regional PMIs in May and a sharp drop in home sales suggest that higher interest rates, higher costs, and global uncertainty are beginning to undermine the momentum of the US recovery. However, the labor market is still a pillar.
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The economic calendar for the upcoming week is not as dense as the previous one, but this week is more serious in terms of the number of important events. The main event will be the CPI data (inflation rate) in the United States and China. Analysts expect the US Consumer Price Index to remain at the same level as the PCE index two weeks ago, indicating signs of a slowdown in price growth. The focus of investors should also be on the ECB and RBA meetings. The European Central Bank is becoming hawkish, but analysts believe there will be no significant rate hike at the current meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue raising interest rates.
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The US stock market closed yesterday with an increase. The Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.33% at the stock market's close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 1.84%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.69%. The Fed officials Brainard and Mester confirmed that the Fed is planning to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points at the next two meetings. This scenario is already priced in, so the indices continued to recover amid the absence of negative news on the economy. An important jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) will be released today. US private sector jobs added much less than expected in May, according to ADP, which could indicate labor demand is starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. This suggests that the US central bank is trying to reduce labor demand without raising the unemployment rate too high.
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The US stock market closed yesterday in red territory. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.16%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.30%.The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down 1.49%. Remarks by JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon about the economy raised new recession fears. In turn, the ISM manufacturing index and hawkish speeches of Fed officials yesterday were optimistic for the US dollar. Former New York Fed President William Dudley pointed out yesterday that the Fed needs to tighten financial conditions. The only way to do that is to raise interest rates substantially. Waller from the Fed said he supports tightening policy by another 50 basis points throughout several meetings. The ultra-hawkish Bullard noted that the current macroeconomic environment in the US is undermining the Fed's confidence in inflation and that inflation expectations could lose support without action from the Fed, so aggressively raising rates to 3.5% is needed. As soon as possible, like this year.
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The US stock market closed yesterday in a negative area. At closing time on Friday Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.67% (-0.22% for the month), S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.63% (-0.56% for the month). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.41% yesterday (-0.63% for the month). All three indices were down on the month. Among the factors that put pressure on the US equity market was the fear that the high inflation would negatively affect corporate earnings as the Q2 earnings season is just around the corner.
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The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the holiday. Nevertheless, index futures on Asian and European sessions demonstrated growth, so if there will be no sharp movements at the European session today, the US stock indices will open with a gap. European stock markets were mostly rising yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.79%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.72%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.03%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.19%. Monday's data showed that inflation in Germany reached another all-time high (7.4% → 7.9% y/y), while Spanish CPI data was also higher than estimated (8.3% → 8.7% y/y). France and Italy will also release their data today, and then the Eurozone CPI data will be updated. Analysts expect inflation in Europe to rise from 7.5% to 7.8% y/y. The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting next week. Therefore, if Eurozone inflation is higher than expected today, the ECB may decide to act more aggressively. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the Central Bank’s deposit rate should start to rise in July, and a significant rise in the Eurozone consumer price index could strengthen the case for an aggressive rate hike. Also, today there will be other important data on Europe to pay attention to. In particular, GDP data for the last quarter.
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At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.76% (+5.79% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.47% (+6.09% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 3.33% (+6.45% for the week). All three indices ended the week in the green territory. The latest economic data, and comments of the Fed officials contributed to the positivity. The Core PCE index, part of the Fed's inflation measures, was 4.9% y/y in April versus 5.2% y/y in March. This is the first decline in the index in 17 months. When viewed in context with other measures of inflation, this may indicate that US inflation is slowing. This is a good sign that the Fed might not have to tighten monetary policy after the summer meetings. And that's a positive for stock indices.
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This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the main event of the week, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report remains robust in May. The Eurozone is to release its latest inflation estimate on Tuesday, with economists expecting the consumer price index to hit another record high of 7.7% in May, up from 7.4% in April. The Bank of Canada will hold an interest rate meeting. Analysts predict that the bank will raise the rate by 0.5%. As a rule, rising interest rates is accompanied by a strengthening of the national currency. Investors should also keep a close eye on the monthly OPEC+ meeting, which greatly impacts oil pricing.
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Stronger quarterly results from retailers and a rally in tech-led stocks ended their longest weekly losing streak since 1932. The US indices traded higher yesterday. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.61%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.99%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.68%. US GDP fell by 1.5% in the first quarter, worse than expected. Initial jobless claims fell to 210,000 (-8,000 for the week). The US GDP decline amid a strengthening labor market points to pre-recession signs. On the other hand, the decline in GDP is due to the fact that the US spent more on imports than other countries on US exports. This led to a trade deficit, which contributed to the contraction of GDP. US pending home sales fell by 3.9% in April. This is the sixth consecutive month of decline. As mortgage rates rise, analysts predict existing home sales will decline 9% in 2022, and home price growth will drop to 5% by the end of the year.
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US indices were positive yesterday. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.60%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.95%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.51%. The FOMC protocol confirmed that most participants are prone to raise rates by 50 basis points at their next two meetings, but after that, the Fed is likely to pause for a potential reassessment of the pace of tightening. The protocol also states that the Fed will begin cutting its balance sheet on June 1 at a rate of $47.5 billion per month.
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US indices were trading yesterday without a single trend. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones index (US30) added 0.15%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.81%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 2.35%. A Bank of America managers survey showed that investors are becoming increasingly bearish on tech stocks as the US shows more signs of a recession. Monthly new home sales in the United States fell to a two-year low in April, reinforcing the notion of a slowing housing market due to rising interest and mortgage rates.
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At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 1.98%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 1.86%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.30% on Monday. US President Joe Biden said he was ready to enter into a military conflict with China "in case of an invasion" of Taiwan. In turn, the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded: "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The Taiwan issue is a purely internal affair for China. China has no room for compromise or concession on issues touching on its core interests of sovereignty and territorial integrity. No one should underestimate the firm resolve, staunch will, and strong ability of the Chinese people in defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity".
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According to former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roche, stagflation in the US is inevitable. He warns that the US is on a dangerous path that leads to higher prices combined with slower economic growth. "The markets are not even close to discounting the full extent of what's going to be required to bring the demand side under control... That underscores the deep hole Jerome Powell is in right now."
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Investors will focus this week on FOMC minutes to get more information on the US central bank's reaction to soaring inflation. US personal income and spending data, which the Fed considers to adjust policy, will also be an important economic event. The UK and Europe manufacturing PMI data should also focus on traders. Investors should also closely monitor the New Zealand Reserve Bank meeting as RBNZ plans to aggressively raise interest rates through the end of the year.
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Major US indices continued to fall yesterday as investors continue to fear that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve to fight rapid inflation will lead to a recession in the economy. The US stock market saw another sell-off yesterday. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.75%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.58%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.26%.
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The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates non-stop and even slow the US economy if necessary to reduce inflation from its current 40-year highs. Record high fuel prices accelerate inflation and could eventually lead to lower energy demand as consumers find it increasingly difficult to pay those prices. US economic growth this year is likely to be 2.4%, about 0.8% below the Fed's estimate, as the war in Ukraine causes more global negative shocks than expected, S&P Global said in its forecast.
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US retail sales data came in better than expected and industrial production increased for the fourth month in a row. The solid economic data was released just hours before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pledged to keep raising rates until inflation cools down. GDP forecasts at the start of the second quarter point to a US economic recovery. Analysts expect US economic activity to rebound in the second quarter.
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Investors’ fears of a slowdown in the US economic growth increased after New York's manufacturing activity fell by 36.2 points to -11.6 in May. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that current Fed leaders have been too slow in responding to rising US inflation and as a result have faced a period of stagflation (a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation). According to Bernanke, Powell and his colleagues decided to respond to rising inflation gradually because they did not want to shock markets with a repeat of the so-called tantrum in 2013 when Treasury yields rose sharply under his leadership. At the same time, he warned that the result of this slow reaction would be poor economic performance.
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The week ahead finds a busy economic calendar alongside a series of Fed and ECB appearances that remain in focus given uncertainties over the pace of monetary policy tightening in the US and the EU. Both US and China will update retail sales and industrial production figures for April. In Europe, eurozone Q1 GDP and inflation numbers will be published. Also, the UK, Japan, and Canada will update the inflation data for April.
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More and more economic experts believe that the Federal Reserve's plan to curb inflation may lead to a recession in the economy. To fight inflation, the Fed has launched its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades, planning multiple rate hikes of half a percent in a row and $9 trillion in cuts to its balance sheet. But this tightening campaign is causing cracks in financial markets and steep increases in mortgage rates and other forms of borrowing. This could lead to an economic crisis in the coming months and put pressure on the Fed, both because of inflation and the negative side effects of higher rates. The Economic data is also not encouraging. The US producer price index, also called "factory" inflation or wholesale inflation, increased to 11% in annual terms. Last month's growth was 0.5%. According to many analysts, the producer price index is a more accurate indicator of the inflation faced by businesses and retailers that suffers the most from supply chain disruptions. The initial jobless claims increased to 203,000 (+1,000 for the last week). A strong labor market amid rising inflation is the first sign of an impending recession. Such signals scare investors enough to sell off their portfolios, which leads to a decrease in stock indices. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, the S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.13%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.06%.
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The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell to a fresh yearly low yesterday as CPI data showed that inflation remains near a 40-year high. The US inflation rate fell to 8.3% from 8.5%, but the data was worse than analysts' expectations of 8.1%. Fed officials indicate that inflation has been more resilient, and more action may be needed. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is not seriously considering a 75 basis point hike at its next two meetings. But after yesterday's inflation report, policymakers' opinions may change. Persistent inflation in the US has increased investors' fears about an aggressive monetary policy tightening, so the stock market saw another sell-off yesterday.
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Yesterday, the US indices traded cautiously and had no unified dynamics. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.26%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.25%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped 0.98%. According to hedge fund strategists, investors are looking for signs of a potential peak in inflationary pressures, and if today's data shows a decline in consumer prices, stock indices will show a strong rally. On the other hand, if the inflation data are worse than expected or there is a new acceleration of inflation, the stock market may see a strong sell-off.
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Credit Suisse last week lowered its forecast for the S&P 500 Index. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., and Morgan Stanley also forecast that the stock market will struggle this year. The Federal Reserve is in the midst of a cycle of aggressive rate hikes that are expected to put pressure on US corporate earnings and economic growth. This is already weakening the support of the stock market, causing stock indices to decline steadily for weeks, while the dollar index shows growth. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.99%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 3.20%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 4.29% on Monday.
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Last week, the Nasdaq (US100) and S&P 500 (US500) indices fell for the fifth week in a row and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) for the sixth. This is the longest losing streak for the S&P 500 since mid-2011 and the Nasdaq since late 2012. Investors are concerned that aggressive tightening by the Fed could lead the economy to recession. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.30% (-0.24% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.57% (-0.18% for the week), and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.40% on Friday and became the fall leader (-1.52%) for the week.
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This week will be less eventful than the previous one. The main event will be the CPI data (inflation rate) in the United States. Analysts forecast a slowdown in inflation year on year from 8.5% to 8.1%. If the data is worse than expected, the stock market may react negatively. On Wednesday, China will also release inflation data, which will show the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the world's second-largest economy. Investors should also focus on the speeches of the Fed and the ECB officials. It should also be noted that financial markets are now very sensitive to news about the war in Ukraine and the situation in the oil market.
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On Thursday, US stock indices ended with a decline amid participants rethinking the outcome of the Federal Reserve's meeting in May. Hedge fund strategists believe Jerome Powell was hawkish on Wednesday, causing the US dollar to return to an uptrend yesterday and the stock market to see its biggest daily drop of the year. After the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) lost 3.12%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 3.56%, and the technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 4.99%. At the same time, the day before, the indices showed the highest rise since 2020.
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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time this year. As expected, the increase was 0.5%. But Chairman Jerome Powell eased investors' fears of more aggressive rate hikes in future meetings. This gave investors great optimism, leading to a surge in major stock indices. After the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.81%, the S&P 500 (US500) added 2.99%, and the technology index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 3.19%.
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Today the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and publish its monetary policy minutes. Wall Street has a broad consensus that the central bank will raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to reduce rising inflationary pressures. This would be the second adjustment during the current tightening cycle but the first non-standard increase since early 2000. But this will not surprise the market since the March FOMC meeting minutes showed that "many participants would prefer a 50 basis point hike." Special attention should be paid to the press conference at which Jerome Powell will talk about the future outlook for the economy. If the future outlook is unfavorable, the dollar index may see a new upward momentum while the stock market decreases. If the outlook is favorable, the dollar index could fall sharply, and the stock market could jump as a negative scenario already in prices.
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Increased inflationary pressures caused by the war in Ukraine, as well as supply chain problems related to the pandemic and restrictions in China, have helped raise bond rates and strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve policy tightening. Investors continue to expect more and more central banks to tighten monetary policy in response to high inflation.
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Last week ended with reports from major tech companies, which should largely determine the future of US indices. Facebook, Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Apple showed positive reports. Google and Amazon showed negative reports. As a result, markets closed last week with a loss. Economic prospects are still overshadowed by concerns about the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, rising bond yields, new coronavirus restrictions in China, which could hinder hamper improving global supply chains, and more aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.77% (-2.24% for the week, -5.57% for the month), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 3.63% (-2.90% for the week, -9.84% for the month). The technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 4.17% on Friday (-3.25% for the week, -15.12% for the month).
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This week promises to be volatile due to several important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week's main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report in April remains robust. Traders should pay special attention to the interest rate decisions of the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts expect to see higher interest rates in both. As a rule, rising interest rates are accompanied by the strengthening of the national currency and the stock market's weakness. Investors should also keep an eye on the monthly OPEC+ meeting, which will strongly impact oil pricing. Traders should also not forget about the US earning season. Investors still believe that the reporting season will keep the US market from falling. Companies such as Pfizer, AMD, Starbucks, Airbnb, Booking, Uber, Moderna, Alibaba, and others will report this week.
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US GDP in the first quarter fell unexpectedly by 1.4% in the first quarter, marking a sharp slowdown in economic growth. But despite the disappointing numbers, markets paid little attention to the report, with stock and bond yields mostly rising. PayPal stock increased more than 10% after its first-quarter results beat analysts' forecasts, helped by strong growth in payments volume and net new active accounts. McDonald's Q1 revenue rose 11%, but net income was down. The wave of positive quarterly corporate results helped offset an unexpected slowdown in US economic growth. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.85%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 2.47%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.06%.
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Investors are increasingly concerned that the devastation of the Russian and Ukrainian economies and the looming economic damage in China due to the lockdowns will lead to further supply shocks, which will further spur commodity-fuelled inflation. But many experts believe that such a scenario is alreadу in prices, so investors should focus on the reporting period in the US and Europe.
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On Tuesday, Google missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly sales, the first drop since the pandemic began, as advertisers cut spending amid growing fears of a global economic slowdown. The company's stock fell more than 8% in the late session. Microsoft has exceeded Wall Street's expectations for quarterly revenue, driven by high demand for the software giant's cloud services because of the pandemic-induced shift to hybrid operating models. But despite such positivity, the company's stock fell more than 3.5% after closing. Amid fears that Elon Musk will have to pledge or sell most of Tesla's shares to buy the social network Twitter, the electric car maker's shares fell by 12% yesterday. In addition to the drop in the tech sector, other companies' financial performance also exacerbated the sell-off caused by the downturn in regional banks amid weaker quarterly results and falling Treasury bond yields. After the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 2.38%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 2.81%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 3.95%.
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Despite concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, US indices increased on Monday as investors are optimistic ahead of a crucial week of the quarterly results of major tech companies. Large tech companies caused a broader market reversal, driven by Alphabet and Microsoft's gains ahead of today's quarterly earnings. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.71%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.29% yesterday. But despite the rebound, some Wall Street analysts say there are more declines ahead as the selling conditions are not yet at an extreme level.
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After Powell's hawkish speech last week, analysts predict an almost 100% chance of a double interest rate hike in May, June, and July. At the same time, Powell has raised doubts that the Fed will be able to overcome inflation without throwing the economy into recession. This situation frightened investors, who began to sell-off at the end of last week. At the closing of the stock exchange on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 2.82% (-1.74% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 2.77% (-2.60% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.55% on Friday and ended the week with a loss of -3.60%.
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A number of Q1 GDP data will be released this week in the US, Canada, Germany, the Eurozone, South Korea, and Taiwan. Initial inflation data are highly anticipated in the Eurozone report, as well as Australia and Singapore CPI figures reports. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan meeting will be held to update its outlook. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI will also examine China’s manufacturing health amid the latest COVID-19 disruptions. Nearly 180 companies in the S&P 500, which is worth about half the market value of the benchmark index, are expected to release their results this week, including the four largest US companies by market capitalization: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.
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The US stock indices opened yesterday with gains thanks to corporate earnings and strong unemployment data but began to decline in anticipation of statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell confirmed a 0.5% interest rate hike at next month's policy meeting. Growing fears over increasingly aggressive FED policy have hit Treasuries, especially in the short term, leading to a stock sell-off at the end of the day. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.05% and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.48%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.07%.
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A Fed survey shows that US firms are facing a labour shortage. "Supply chain delays, labour market tensions, and elevated production costs continue to pose challenges to firms' ability to meet demand," the Fed survey says. Along with record inflation, this situation could lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth if the Fed fails to make a "soft landing" of the economy. The US stock indices traded mixed yesterday. At the close of the stock market yesterday the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.71%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.06%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 1.22%.
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Inflationary pressures caused by the war in Ukraine are increasing market expectations for an aggressive response from US monetary policymakers, leading to higher US Treasury yields, a rising dollar index, and a falling yen. The 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.9% yesterday for the first time since 2018, but that didn't spoil investor sentiment as their focus is now on quarterly earnings, and investors are betting on growth in the technology sector. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.61%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.61%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.15%.
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Fears of an impending recession are growing in the United States. Goldman Sachs predicts that a significant narrowing of the gap between the number of vacancies in the labor market and the number of workers is a sign of the beginning of the recession. The US Federal Reserve will have the difficult task of tightening its monetary policy enough to reduce inflation without causing an economic slowdown in the United States. Despite all the assurances from the Fed officials that they can tighten monetary policy and reduce inflation without destroying the economy (economists call it a "soft landing"), this idea raises many skeptics, including former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. He believes that the recession is now the most likely outcome for the US economy soon. But it is worth noting that this will not happen tomorrow or next week. The deviation is significant. Analytical houses predict the beginning of a recession in the US in the next 1-2 years.
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The US earning season has begun. Several blue chips from the Dow Jones index (US30) will report this week. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, IBM, and American Express are among them. Investors are also expecting reports from streaming giant Netflix and electric car maker Tesla. But it should be noted that American companies are sharply deteriorating their outlook on their reports. The indicators have already reached the 2008-2009 crisis level in terms of corporate sentiment.
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Last week, investors focused mainly on the US Consumer Price Index. Сonsumer inflation in the US rose to 8.5% year on year, the highest level since 1981. Investors now expect the Fed to be more aggressive with monetary policy. The probability of a 0.5% interest rate hike increased to 80% at the Fed meetings in May and June. Meanwhile, some Fed officials are already calling for a balance sheet reduction after the May meeting. Investors should focus on inflation data in Canada and New Zealand this week. Rising inflation is always a reason for the central bank to tighten monetary policy, so high inflation is often accompanied by rising national currency. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the International Monetary Fund on Thursday. He will participate in a panel discussion on the global economy with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and other central bank policymakers. Several Dow Jones blue chips are due to report within the next week. Traders should also monitor the oil market. The ongoing war in Ukraine is already forcing European countries to think about a complete oil embargo on Russian energy resources, which will undoubtedly slow down the region's economy and cause recessionary sentiment.
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Rising Treasury bond yields, which tend to boost banks' lending margins, are forcing investors to bet that the Federal Reserve will aggressively use monetary tightening to curb inflationary pressures. The pace of yield growth put growing market sectors at risk, with large tech companies leading the decline yesterday. At the end of the day yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.21%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.14%.
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The growth of yields on US government bonds stopped, which led to a decrease in the dollar index and, as a result, to the growth of major indices. At the end of the day yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.02%, the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.13%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.03%. JPMorgan started the quarterly earnings season with disappointing results. JPMorgan's first-quarter earnings fell by 42%. The report missed Wall Street estimates due to higher-than-expected debt reserves as the bank forecasted a higher probability of declining reserves risk.
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The US consumer price index rose to 8.5% y/y, beating economists' forecasts of 8.4%, but investors' attention was focused on the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices. The core CPI increased by 0.3% in March, slower than the 0.5% forecast by economists. Amid a jump in inflation, the dollar index rose sharply yesterday, causing major indices to fall. At the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.6% yesterday, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.34%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.30%.
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The US Treasury bond yields jumped to a three-year high ahead of US inflation data. The Fed’s plan to curb inflation is subjected to additional analysis today. Analysts forecast the US inflation rate to show an increase of 8.4% year on year. The 10-year bond yields increased yesterday from 2.40% to 2.74%. Rising government bond yields tend to affect major stock indices negatively. At the end of the day yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.19%, the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.69%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.18%.
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This week, investors will focus on inflation data in the US, UK, Germany, and China. In February, the US inflation reached 7.9%, the largest annual increase in 40 years. On Wednesday, inflation data are expected to show that the consumer price index in March will reach 8.5% in annual terms as the war in Ukraine has raised commodity prices significantly. The strong inflation figure confirms arguments for the Federal Reserve's more aggressive rate hike, probably increasing investor fears that tighter monetary policy could significantly slow down the economy. Also, this week, the central banks of Canada and New Zealand will hold meetings on interest rate decisions. Analysts predict interest rate hikes in both cases amid rising inflation worldwide. According to surveys, markets estimate a 90% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise rates by half a percent and a more than 80% chance that the Bank of Canada will do the same.
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Last week, investors focused mainly on FOMC minutes, which showed that the Fed would raise rates more aggressively amid a strong labor market and high inflation. Fed officials also reaffirmed the committee's intention to take a more aggressive approach, including cutting the balance sheet. This week, investors will focus on inflation data in the United States, Britain, Germany, and China. Also, this week the central banks of Canada and New Zealand will meet on interest rate decisions. Analysts predict interest rate hikes in both cases. Investors will also focus on the ECB meeting, but analysts do not expect changes, given the conservatism of European politicians. Investors should also watch the start of the US earning period in the first quarter of 2022.
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Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 166,000 last week, repeating March's low, which was the lowest since 1968. The total number of people receiving assistance is now 1.7 million, with job openings still at extremely high levels. Analysts believe this strong labor market will drive up inflation. The dollar index and US Treasury bond yields continue to rise. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic made a dovish counterargument on Thursday. Policymakers believe that normalizing monetary policy is best achieved by raising interest rates, rather than by reducing the balance sheet. Such rhetoric has somewhat reassured investors.
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On Wednesday, US stock markets opened lower again, intensifying the decline. Another FOMC official, Harker, said yesterday that he expects the Fed's balance sheet to reduce soon. "I see US GDP growth slowing to about 3% – 3.5% this year. I don't see high inflation going away quickly. High fuel prices will be with us for a while," Harker added. Later comments were echoed by Kansas City Fed President Esther George and San Francisco President Mary Daley. Deutsche Bank analyst concluded that there is now a high risk of a recession in the US economy in 2023 as the Fed is forced to raise interest rates above their neutral level to lower inflation.
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Financial markets are now susceptible to verbal interventions by the US Federal Reserve officials. Yesterday, after Lael Brainard's speech, US indices fell sharply. Ms. Brainard is known for her dovish stance on monetary policy, but yesterday her tone changed to hawkish. "Inflation is very high and could go even higher, which would require permanent interest rate increases and balance sheet cuts," Brainard said on Tuesday. "To reduce inflation, the Fed will continue to methodically tighten monetary policy through a series of interest rate hikes and rapid balance sheet cuts immediately following our May meeting," the policymaker added.
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Investors remain concerned about the war in Ukraine, which has sent commodity prices skyrocketing, worsening the outlook for already high inflation. The 10-year US Treasury bond yields rose on Monday, while the 2-year/10-year yield curve remained inverted. The curve inversion is seen as a harbinger of a recession in the next year or two. But there is another opinion. An inverted Treasury yield curve tells investors more about inflation than recession prospects, says an experienced Wall Street strategist. "The 2/10 inversion of the nominal Treasury bond curve does not mean slower growth, but rather lower inflation in 2023 and beyond," wrote Barry Knapp, managing partner of Ironsides Economics.
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"The Federal Reserve needs to move monetary policy towards a more neutral stance, but the pace at which it tightens credit will depend on how the economy reacts," New York Fed President John Williams said on Saturday. The average neutral rate rating by policymakers is 2.4%. Currently, traders believe the Fed will achieve this by the end of this year. That rate will require a 0.5% increase at two of the remaining six Fed meetings this year, and the first is expected to take place at the May 4 Fed meeting.
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Last week, investors' attention was focused on inflation data in European countries, US labor market data, geopolitics, and the OPEC+ meeting. This week will be calmer in terms of economic events. The Reserve Bank of Australia will update its interest rate on Tuesday. Analysts do not expect any surprises and believe that the rate will remain unchanged. The March FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday, where investors can see signs that the Fed will aggressively raise interest rates. Analysts believe that improving labor market indicators contribute to the Fed's half-percent rate hike at its next meeting on May 4. Currently, the probability of such a scenario is estimated at 75.5%. This could lead to a sharp surge in volatility this week. Investors' attention should also be focused on the ECB minutes and speeches by ECB officials. A sharp rise in inflation in Europe could lead to a revision of the ECB's monetary policy. It should also be noted that financial markets are now very sensitive to news of the war in Ukraine and the situation in the oil market.
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On Thursday, global stock indices fell amid fears of recession, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine boosted sales. Oil prices fell more than $6 after the US announced a record release of its strategic reserves. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.56% yesterday, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.57%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 1.54%. Analysts see a stock market downturn over the next two quarters as record inflation in the US forces the Fed to aggressively raise interest rates, which will eventually lead to higher government bond yields, the rising dollar index, and lower stock indices. Investors need to balance their portfolios.
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In April, private-sector job growth was surprisingly positive, but fourth-quarter GDP was revised down unexpectedly by a tenth of a percentage point. Investors also continue to monitor the US debt market. Yield spreads on 10- and 2-year Treasury bonds continue to show inversion, raising serious concerns about an impending recession. The Federal Reserve may be tightening policy too aggressively in the near term, and analyst houses are already predicting the next three 0.5% interest rate hikes. "Given the state of the economy, inflation at its highest level in 40 years, and an unemployment rate close to a record low, it is appropriate to move quickly to neutral policy," Kansas City Fed President Esther George said on Wednesday. Thomas Barkin, Head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said he was ready to raise rates by half a point at the next meeting.
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The S&P 500 increased on Tuesday as rising hopes for a de-escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict helped stocks shrug off further bond market signals of a potential recession. All three US indices closed in green territory yesterday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.97%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.23%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 1.84%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds temporarily fell below the 2-year Treasury yield for the first time since 2019. Such an event is called a yield curve inversion. It's should be noted that a yield curve inversion has preceded every recession in the past 40 years.
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Yesterday, all three US indices closed in the green zone. Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.27%, S&P 500 (US500) added 0.71%, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.31% on Monday. US government bond yields remain close to a three-year high as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve's rate hike campaign. This plays in favor of a stronger dollar index against other currencies. US President Joe Biden submitted to Congress a budget proposal for the next fiscal year beginning October 1. Under Biden's budget plan, corporate executives would be required to own the company's shares they received for several years after purchasing it and would be prohibited from selling shares for several years after the share buyback. This would deprive corporations of using profits to buy back shares for the benefit of executives. The plan also includes $5.79 trillion in defense spending, aid to Ukraine, higher taxes on the richest Americans and companies, and a reduction in the national deficit.
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The US stock market traded inconsistently last week. By the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.44% (+0.55% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) added 0.51% (+1.81% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.16% on Friday but became the growth leader by the end of the week with +2.23%. According to analysts at Bank of America, the stock market is likely to rise for several more weeks and provide investors with a good opportunity for a sell-off. Tightening monetary policy to combat high inflation and lower corporate earnings growth is likely to lead to a corrective movement in stock indices this year, so investors should rebalance their portfolios while they can.
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This week, the focus of investors will be the monthly labor market report in the US (non-farm payrolls). This report could help markets understand if the Fed's rate hike roadmap is too aggressive or not aggressive enough. Economists expect the US economy to add 475,000 jobs after adding 678,000 in February. Before that, there will be February data on personal income and spending, which the Fed considers when adjusting inflation estimates. Rising oil prices are fueling inflationary expectations, so Thursday's OPEC+ meeting should be the focus for investors. Another event for traders to pay attention to this week is the inflation rate in the Eurozone. A sharp rise in inflation could change the ECB's view of monetary policy towards faster tightening.
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By the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 1.02%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 1.43%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 1.93%. All three major indices closed the day in the green zone. The US stock market was up all week. However, this growth is likely to be temporary, as almost all US Federal Reserve officials are inclined to move into the process of rapidly rising interest rates and start reducing assets on the balance sheet from May. At the same time, some officials propose to raise rates by 0.5% at once at the May, June, July, and September meetings. Such monetary policy would boost the dollar index and government bond yields and hurt the stock market. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, investors should balance their portfolios before a possible correction in the indices this year.
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On Wednesday, the US stock market fell on the back of "hawkish" statements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) members and increased fears of rising inflation in the US due to rising oil prices. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester were the other FOMC policymakers who indicated that the central bank plans to raise interest rates on a larger scale at its May meeting. Analysts on Wednesday updated their Fed forecast in light of Powell's comments and expect a 50 basis point rate hike at both in May and June meetings. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.29%, the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 1.23%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 1.32%. All three major indices closed the day in minus.
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Yesterday, by the close of trading the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.74%, the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.13%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.95%. All three major indices closed the day in positive territory. "The market is holding up pretty well, given that Russia continues to wage war with Ukraine and the Fed has started raising interest rates to combat high inflation," said Scott Wren, senior global markets strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He also added that "a really good US labor market helps support stocks, while investors expect inflation to slow over the next two years." Meanwhile, analysts are confident that the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in May has increased following comments from Powell and Bullard on Monday and Tuesday. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Governor James Bullard said the Fed should quickly tighten monetary policy to ease upward inflation pressure.
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At the National Association of Business Economists conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank could be more aggressive in raising interest rates if inflation does not slow down. This means raising the interest rate by 0.5% instead of the standard 0.25%. The US stock market reacted negatively to such comments but partially managed to recover by the end of the day. By the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.58%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.04%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.40%. All three major indices closed the day with losses. According to the analytical houses, FOMC officials are now more concerned about high inflation than the economic slowdown or weakening labor market.
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This week will not be full of economic events, so the main focus of investors will be on geopolitics and the situation in Ukraine. This week, the Bank for International Settlements will also host a virtual meeting with speeches by many US officials, including Jerome Powell. There will be a NATO meeting on Wednesday. On Thursday, a summit of EU leaders on security issues will occur. US President Joe Biden plans to attend these events in Europe.
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Last week, investors' attention was focused on the US, UK, and Japanese central bank meetings and inflation rates in Europe and Canada. This week will not be full of economic events, so the investors' attention will be focused on the situation in Ukraine. Also, this week there will be a virtual summit organized by the Bank for International Settlements, which will be addressed by many US officials, including Jerome Powell. On Wednesday, the UK will update its inflation data. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.4-0.5%, although the Bank of England has already raised interest rates three times. On Thursday, data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in many countries and durable goods order data in the US will be released. A summit of EU leaders on security issues will also take place on Thursday. Investors should closely monitor the oil market. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions could exacerbate supply shortages unless Western countries agree to increase supplies from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
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The US stock indices finished Thursday's trading with growth. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.23%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.23%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.33% at the close of the stock market. Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors, said the market is still trying to figure out what the latest news from the Fed means for the future. They tell us that the markets still believe in the Fed's ability to land softly on the economy. Stock indices initially priced in a more aggressive interest rate hike, so now that news of the Fed's plans have come out, the markets have taken it positively.
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Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rates by 0.25%. In addition, the Fed warned of further increases. A total of 7 hikes are expected this year and four more next year. Fed policymakers see the risk of further inflationary pressures (the forecast for 2022 increased to 4.3% from 2.6%) and economic slowdowns (the forecast for GDP growth was reduced to 2.8% from 4%). The Fed will decide on a balance sheet reduction at its upcoming meetings and consider a more rapid stimulus reduction.
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The US stock indices finished Tuesday's trading with a confident growth. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.82%, the S&P500 index (US500) added 2.14%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 2.92%. The long-awaited FOMC meeting in the US will take place today, where analysts expect to see an interest rate hike. Investors should also keep a close eye on Jerome Powell's speech at the press conference. There is a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points today. Analysts are confident that the rate will rise at every Federal Reserve meeting until the end of the year. But with inflation approaching 8%, many believe that rising rates to 2% by the end of the year will not be enough to dampen consumer price growth, so the Fed needs to start cutting the balance sheet. The US stock market has already included a more aggressive scenario for a rate hike, so now the indices can significantly increase in price even despite the growth of the dollar index.
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The US stock indices finished trading on Monday without a single trend. The Dow Jones (US30) was flat at the close, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.74%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 2.04%. Tomorrow will be the long-awaited March Federal Reserve meeting, at which the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Most likely, the rate will be raised by 0.25%, but there is a slight possibility that due to the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, the rate could be increased immediately by 0.5%. The Fed will also provide new macroeconomic forecasts along with the rate decision. Goldman Sachs Group lowered its forecast for the S&P 500 Index to 4,700 points from 4,900 points at the end of 2022 due to the conflict over Ukraine.
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On Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.69% (-1.89% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.30% (-2.84% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 2.18% (-3.64% for the week). All three major indices closed the week down. Last week the US CPI climbed to 7.9% year on year, the highest level since 1982. In his speech to Congress last week, Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed would raise interest rates by a quarter-point to combat rising inflation at its March 16 meeting. No more rate hikes of more than 50 bps are expected as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring and caused serious uncertainty in financial markets.
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Last week, US consumer inflation increased to 7.9% in annual terms, the highest level since 1982. The Fed has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to combat rising inflation. No more rate hikes of more than half a percentage point are expected as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring and caused significant uncertainty in financial markets. This week, investors' attention should be focused on the FOMC meeting, inflation data in the Eurozone, Canada, and Japan, as well as monetary policy reports from the central banks of England, Australia, and Japan. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again by a quarter-point. Investors will also focus on reports from the International Energy Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The war and sanctions against Russia have pushed oil prices to a 14-year high, and natural gas prices are close to record highs.
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The US stock indices closed lower yesterday amid negative consumer price index data. The inflation rate in the US reached 7.9% year on year, the highest level in the last 40 years. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) was down 0.34%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.43%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.95%. Analysts are now confident that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 bps at subsequent meetings this year. Yesterday, SaxoBank analysts said that "given the strong increase in energy and transportation costs, mainly related to Ukraine, we forecast that the US inflation rate could reach double digits this year."
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US stock indices ended Wednesday's trading with solid growth. Falling prices for oil and other commodities have supported the US stock market. The sharp rise in oil and other commodities has raised fears among investors about further rising inflation and a potential slowdown in economic growth. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 2%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 2.57%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 3.59%.
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On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden signed a decree banning the import of oil, petroleum products, LNG, and coal from Russia. The decree also bans US investment in Russia's energy sector and the financing of foreign companies investing in the sector. This could worsen the US Federal Reserve's inflation problem ahead of its policy decision next week. Russia warned earlier this week that oil prices could rise to $300 a barrel because it could cut off the main pipeline to Germany if the West blocked its oil exports. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.56%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.72%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.28%.
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On Monday, US stock indices closed lower as risks arising from Russia's attack on Ukraine are still weighing heavily on investors. The third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia did not give a significant result, continuing the war. Now it is difficult to predict when the de-escalation of the conflict will begin. Investors are also concerned about new inflationary risks as the US Federal Reserve may revise its plans again and raise interest rates more aggressively. Yesterday, it also became known that the US is considering options to reduce Russian oil imports and analyze possible actions to minimize the impact on global supplies. Currently, the level of Russian oil and gas imports is about 8%. All these factors negatively impact world indices. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.37%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.85%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 3.62%.
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US stock indices closed lower on Friday as risks associated with the Russian attack on Ukraine continue to put pressure on investors. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.53% (-0.76% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.79% (-0.58% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 1.66% (-1.90% for the week). All three major indices closed the week with losses. Geopolitical concerns are likely to continue to overshadow the outlook for US stocks as soaring post-sanctions commodity prices have increased fears of more inflation, which may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively.
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Last week, investors' attention was focused on the war in Ukraine. Now it is a major geopolitical and economic tragedy. Western countries have imposed tough sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The world's largest companies have ceased cooperation with the Russian market. Russia has lost international support, investors are trying to withdraw their investments from the country, but the Russian government has already introduced laws prohibiting or restricting currency withdrawal. The Moscow Stock Exchange was closed last week, and Russian securities fell by 70-100% on international exchanges. This week, investors will also focus on war and geopolitics. As for economic events, traders and investors should pay attention to the consumer price index (inflation rate) in the US on Thursday, as well as to the ECB interest rates meeting. Analysts expect another jump in inflation in the US, and the ECB is unlikely to change its monetary policy because of the war in Ukraine.
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Wall Street closed in the red due to continued uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine. Russian terrorists are simply bombing Ukrainian cities and shooting civilians (in Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and many smaller towns like Borodyanka). The number of civilian casualties is growing rapidly. Ukraine asks NATO countries to close the sky over Ukraine, but NATO refuses because it will directly interfere with the alliance in the war with Russia. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.29%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.53%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.54%.
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell officially announced for the first time that the regulator would raise rates at the March 16 meeting. The rate hike will be 25 basis points. When asked how the situation in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia would affect the US economy, he said it was too early to draw conclusions. Markets are now setting a zero chance that the Fed will raise the key rate by 50 bps all at once at the March meeting. A week ago, market participants estimated such a possibility at 41%. Speaking before the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, Powell's comments reassured investors as the market initially expected faster rate hikes. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.79%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.86%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.62%.
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On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index fell due to several factors: a collapse in bank stocks, falling Treasury yields, and concerns about the economic outlook after oil prices rose above $100 a barrel as Russia intensified its assault on Ukraine. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.76%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.55%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 1.59%.
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The markets' focus remains on Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, which has sharply increased uncertainty in the global financial markets. The US stock indices closed Monday with a slight decline. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49%, S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.24%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) increased by 0.41%.
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It will be a very volatile week due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus also became an accomplice to the conflict, having provided its territory for the attack of the Russian army and launched cruise missiles from its territory at Ukrainian cities yesterday. The sanctions imposed against Russia are very serious, and the consequences of such sanctions for ordinary Russian citizens will be serious. If not take into account geopolitics, this week's main events for investors will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls and Interest Rate Decisions from the Central Banks of Canada and Australia. The Bank of Canada will likely raise its interest rate, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave it unchanged. Investors should also keep an eye on the OPEC+ meeting. Given the high geopolitical risks, unexpected decisions are possible. Special attention should be paid to the speech of Fed chief Jerome Powell before the US Congress, as well as the speech of ECB chief Christine Lagarde. Given Russia's attack on Ukraine, it is important to understand how the US and Europe Central Banks will adjust monetary policy.
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At the end of last week, a war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia acting as the aggressor. Russia began bombing the military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine on the morning of February 24. Also, yesterday it was officially confirmed that cruise missiles were launched on the territory of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Thus, Belarus becomes an accomplice to military action against Ukraine and may be subject to the same sanctions as Russia.
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Yesterday, the US imposed sanctions against Russia. "We're implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions: VEB and their military bank," President Joe Biden said in a speech. These sanctions should cut off the Russian government from Western funding. The US is also imposing a ban on the purchase of US bonds. "We'll also impose sanctions on Russia's elites and their family members. They share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin policies and should share in the pain as well," Biden said. Biden also noted that if Russia decides to expand its invasion, the US and its allies are ready to impose additional sanctions. The reaction of the financial markets was restrained.
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Yesterday, the Russian Federation officially recognized the self-proclaimed republics of the "DPR" and "LPR" and signed an agreement with them on mutual, including military, cooperation. Later that day, Putin ordered the Russian Ministry of Defense to deploy troops to the "LPR" and "DPR." Thus, Russia once again violated international law and the Minsk agreements. As a result, Russia and Ukraine are automatically withdrawing from the Minsk agreements, which could further inflame the situation in the east since there are now no treaty restrictions. Moreover, Russia recognizes the "DPR" and "LPR" within the borders of their actual regions of Ukraine, while the line of demarcation is much smaller. This could lead to a real war. This shows how Russia, the guarantor of Ukraine's security when signing the Budapest Memorandum, has become an aggressor against Ukraine and has now declared this on a new global scale.
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Last week was very tense due to the situation in Eastern Europe. Financial markets remain extremely volatile. Any hint of a peaceful resolution pushes indices up, while any hint of escalation causes investors to buy defensive assets again, such as the dollar, Japanese yen, gold, and silver. Meanwhile, markets are completely ignoring the very strong fourth-quarter earnings results in the US and Europe. It is also unclear how the US Fed will tighten monetary policy, slowly or quickly, which adds to investors' caution. According to JPMorgan, the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% nine times in a row, reducing inflation and not affecting economic growth.
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Yesterday, the US stock markets traded in the red area as the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe deteriorated sharply, with the level of information tension remaining extremely high. "Fuel to the fire" was also added yesterday by US President Joe Biden, who said the probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains very high, and it will happen in the next few days. Western countries said that Russia was trying to conduct an operation under a false flag to create a pretext for an attack. For its part, Russia accused Joe Biden of stoking tensions and issued a sharply worded letter saying that Washington was ignoring its security requirements and threatening unspecified "military and technical measures." Adding to the concerns, the State Department reported that Russia had expelled the deputy head of the US diplomatic mission in Moscow. At the close of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 2.12%, the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.78%, and the NASDAQ (US100) tech index fell by 2.6%. But stock indices rebounded slightly in the Asian session after the US secretary of state agreed to a meeting with Russia's foreign minister, raising hopes for diplomacy.
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Thanks to the easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, global stock indices increased yesterday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.22%, the S&P 500 (US500) rose by 1.58%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.53%. On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that some troops are beginning to return to their bases. The detente of geopolitical tensions has provoked an influx of investor funds into risky assets. Meanwhile, gold and oil prices declined yesterday.
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Reports that the US authorities are waiting for a Russian invasion of Ukraine have led to a sharp decline in risk appetite in global markets, a trend that continues to this day. The US stock indices closed Monday with a decline. By the close of the Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49%, S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.38%, and the technology index NASDAQ (US100) closed at its opening levels. The Fed's monetary policy and the escalating geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remained the focus of traders' attention.
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The US stock indices closed in the red zone on Friday. By the close of the stocks market Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.43% (-1.05% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.90% (-1.93% for the week), NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 2.58%, becoming the worst performer of the week (-2.32%) among the US indices. All three major indices closed the week with losses.
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On Thursday, US stock indices fell sharply after a Federal Reserve spokesman stoked fears of an aggressive interest rate hike. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard supported a 1% Fed rate hike by July after consumer price inflation jumped to 7.5% in annual terms, the fastest pace since 1982. The probability of a 50 basis point interest rate hike from the Fed next month increased to 89.9% from 24% the day before. High volatility in the stock market is likely to continue until the Fed meeting in March.

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On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed in the green zone thanks to positive reports from many companies. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.86%, S&P500 (US500) added 1.45%, and NASDAQ (US100) technology index jumped by 2.08%. The US inflation report for January will be released today. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 0.4% month-over-month to 7.3% in annual terms. If the data comes out worse than expected, the dollar index could jump, and stock indices could fall amid investor fears that the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in its monetary policy.

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The US stock indices closed on the plus side on Tuesday. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.06%, S&P500 (US500) added 0.84%, technology index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.28%. The US 10-year bond yields jumped to 1.97% yesterday, the highest level since August 2019, amid continued bets that the Federal Reserve will be aggressive on monetary policy to curb inflation. Banking stocks are growing amid rising yields.

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US stock indices mainly decreased on Monday. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones (US30) remained at the same level, the S&P500 (US500) fell by 0.37%, and the NASDAQ (US100) tech index lost 0.58%. Tom Lee, the founder of the research company Fundstrat, believes that the US stock market will experience a rapid rally in February amid market sensitivity after the collapse. The expert predicts that by the end of the first half of 2022, the S&P500 (US500) may jump above 4850 points, which is 8% above current levels.
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US stock indices traded on Friday without a single trend. At the close of the stock exchange on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.06% (+1.15% for the week), S&P500 (US500) increased by 0.52% (+1.55% for the week), NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 1.58%, becoming the highest gainer of the week (+2.07%) among the US indices. All three major indices closed the week in positive territory. Investors evaluated the latest labor market data and corporate reports. Labor market data showed an increase of 467,000 US nonfarm payrolls last month (125,000 – 150,000 forecast). An unexpectedly sharp increase in jobs occurred despite the spread of the new Omicron strain. But the unemployment rate increased from 3.9% to 4.0%. Such data put pressure on the market as it increased investors' fears that the Fed might become more aggressive.
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The US stock indices ended Thursday's trading with a decline. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.45%, the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 2.44%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 3.74% at the close of the stock market. The disappointing results and an unclear outlook for Meta Platforms (Facebook) dampened market sentiment and left investors worried about other tech companies. But after the market closed, futures on indices jumped sharply on Amazon's report. The company increased its net income for 2021 by 57%. Amazon shares jumped 14.3% and returned some optimism to investors.
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The US stock indices ended Wednesday's trading with growth, closing near session peaks. By the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.63%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.94%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) increased by 0.5%. However, futures on indices fell sharply after the stock market closed, as stocks of companies such as Meta Platforms (Facebook), Spotify, Twitter, and Snapchat fell so that the major stock indices will open with a big gap down today. Investor sentiment has been mixed so far. On the one hand, they fear the upcoming tightening of the monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve System. On the other hand, they are confident in the recovery of the American economy amid strong reports of the majority of companies.
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The US stock indices continued their Friday growth on Monday. By the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.17%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 1.89%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 3.41%. Yesterday's speech by Fed officials appeared to reduce the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March, with three rate hikes scheduled for 2022, not 4-5 as analysts predict. On Monday, the US Treasury chief economist also said that inflationary pressures should ease this year due to lower demand for goods, easing supply chain problems, and the easing of the coronavirus pandemic. Investors' attention will now focus on the US labor market report for January, which will be released on Friday, and on reports from major companies, especially Alphabet, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon, Exxon Mobil, and General Motors.
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Last week, investors' attention was focused on the Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 0.25%. It also became known that the end of the QE program will take place in March, and the balance sheet reduction will begin only after the start of the rate hike. This week the main investors' attention will be focused on the data on the US non-farm payrolls, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the labor market will add 155,000 jobs and show a slowdown from 199,000 in December on the back of the Omicron strain. Traders should pay special attention to the interest rate decision from the Bank of England, the ECB, and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts expect a 0.25% interest rate hike from the Bank of England to curb inflation. Market participants do not expect any changes to the monetary policy of the ECB and the RBA this week. Traders should also pay special attention to inflation data in Europe. Accelerating inflation in the region may provoke the ECB to act more decisively to tighten monetary policy, but analysts forecast lower inflation in the region. Investors should also keep a close eye on the monthly OPEC+ meeting, which has a big impact on oil pricing. Traders should also not forget about the US reporting season. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms (Facebook), General Motors, Ford, Exxon Mobil, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, and others will report this week.
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The US statistical data was positive yesterday. The number of new jobless claims in the USA was 260,000, while analysts expected 265,000. The US GDP grew by 6.9% in the fourth quarter, while the growth b 5.5% was expected. The dollar index significantly strengthened yesterday, which led to the decrease of other currencies against the dollar. At the same time, stock indices fell despite good reports from tech companies. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.02%, the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 0.54%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 1.4% at the close of the stock market.
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Yesterday, investors were focused on the Fed's interest rate decision and the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 0.25%. The end of the QE program will occur in March, and the balance sheet reduction will not begin until after the start of the rate hike. If risks arise that prevent it from achieving its goals, the Fed is prepared to change its monetary policy stance as necessary. The Fed's decision coincided with the forecasts of economists and market participants.
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Yesterday, major US stock indices showed a sharp decline throughout the trading day, but at the end of the trading session recovered their positions sharply and closed in the green territory. By the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.29%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.28%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 0.63%. However, experts at Deutsche Bank believe that after a short-term growth, the US stock market will see a deeper sell-off.
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Major US stock indices fell sharply on Friday. The S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq (US100) indices have shown their biggest weekly percentage declines since the pandemic began. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.30% (-4.81% for the week), the S&P500 (US500) fell by 1.89% (-5.18% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 2.72%, becoming the biggest weekly decline (-6.38%) among American indices.
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On Thursday, US stock indices fell sharply by the end of the day due to the drop in consumer stocks and new weakness in the technology sector. Energy stocks were also pressured by the decline in oil prices on the back of an unexpected increase in weekly US crude oil reserves. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) fell by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 1.3%. The market is now pricing in a scenario with the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, so the US stock market is slowly entering a full correction wave.
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The US stock market ended Wednesday's trading in the red zone. The growth of government bond yields reflects the market's growing concern that central banks would reduce the quantitative easing program and raise interest rates more aggressively than originally anticipated. This is having a negative effect on the stock market, and especially on the technology companies. As the stock market closed, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) lost 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.15%. Stock markets have been falling since Fed officials said in mid-December that plans to reduce bond purchases and other stimulus measures that boost stock prices would be accelerated by a jump in US inflation. At the same time, analysts expect government bond yields to continue rising and exceed 2% in the first quarter of 2022.
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The rise in the dollar index, Japanese yen, and government bond yields indicates that traders are beginning to fear another hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve, whose meeting is expected next week. According to Deutsche Bank, the US Federal Reserve may raise rates more aggressively in March, by 50 basis points at once, to get ahead of inflation. As a result, the stock market saw another sell-off yesterday. At the close of the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 2.5%.
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The US stock indices were trading flat on Friday. By the end of the week, Dow Jones (US30) decreased 0.56% (-0.73% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.08% (+0.16% for the week), and tech index NASDAQ (US100) added 0.59%, becoming the best performer of the week (+0.96%) among the US indices. The decline in Dow Jones was led by declines in shares of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup after earnings results raised worries about declining trading profits and rising lending.
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On Thursday, major US indices closed lower amid renewed selling of technology stocks. At the same time, investors believe that the end of quantitative easing, four rate hikes, and the beginning of the Fed's balance sheet reduction for nine months - is so aggressive that it will limit the possibilities for further growth of stock indices. By the close of the session, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 2.5%.
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In his speech to the US Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell calmed down a little concerned about monetary policy tightening. Mr. Powell confirmed that the Fed plans to begin policy normalization, including ending bond purchases, raising rates, and allowing bonds on the balance sheet to mature later this year.
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Last week, investors' attention was focused on US nonfarm payrolls data and FOMC meeting minutes. The FOMC report showed that an earlier rate hike may be warranted as the labor market remains tight and inflation remains high. In December, the nonfarm payrolls report showed that US private sector jobs increased by 199,000, while analysts had expected an increase of 450,000. This is weak data that confirms the fact that the labor market is slowing. But even though in December, the number of jobs was below expectations, the unemployment rate fell to a 22-month low, and wages rose significantly. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2%.
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On Wednesday, the US stocks fell sharply after the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that the central bank might raise interest rates earlier than expected. Meanwhile, some Fed officials also warned that the Fed might have to reduce the number of assets on its balance sheet soon after a rate hike. The S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) indices fell sharply after the FOMC minutes were released. The Dow Jones index, which reached a record high at the beginning of the day, also closed lower. By the end of the trading session, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) fell by 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite Technology Index (US100) lost 3.36%.
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The US stock indices traded without a single trend yesterday. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) increased by 0.59%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.06%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500) indices made new all-time highs during the trading session but showed declines after the news. The US manufacturing PMI data for December was weak (58.7 vs. 61.1 last month). Typically, an index above 50 reflects growth in the manufacturing sector and vice versa, so at the moment, analysts believe that the US manufacturing sector is stable, despite the decline in numbers.
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The US stock indices closed in the green zone yesterday, while the dollar index also increased sharply. It is quite rare when both the major stock indices and the dollar are rising simultaneously. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.68%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.65%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.2%. But analysts do not expect this year to be as successful for the US stock market as the previous one.
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The US stock market closed the last trading day of the year with a decrease. Dow Jones index (US30) fell by 0.16% (+1.07% for the week, +4.90% for the month, +20.23% for the year), S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.26% (+0.68% for the week, +4.13% for the month, +28.79% for the year) and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.61% (-0.33% for the week, +1.71% for the month, +23.20% for the year). For the first time since 2001, all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index showed double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 index (US500) outperforming the NASDAQ index (US100) by year-end for the first time since 2016.
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At the end of yesterday's trading session, major US indices closed in small declines. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.25%, the S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.30%, and the Nasdaq (US100) decreased by 0.16%. But despite the slight decline, the Dow Jones (US30) and the S&P 500 (US500) made new highs on Thursday on the back of the positive labor market statistics. The number of new jobless claims in the USA amounted to 198,000, while analysts expected the figure of 206,000. This is the lowest value since the pandemic began, and this data gave optimism to investors that a new wave of infections will not be able to stop the economic recovery.
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Yesterday, the US stock market traded without a single trend. The S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.1%, the Nasdaq technology index (US100) lost 0.56%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) gained 0.26% and rose for the fifth straight trading session, the longest uninterrupted period of growth in two months. Since the beginning of the current year, the Dow Jones (US30) has gained nearly 19%, the S&P 500 (US500) added more than 27%, the Nasdaq (US100) increased by 22.5%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index showed a larger gain for 2021 than the Nasdaq index for the first time since 2016.
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Wall Street's main indices showed strong gains yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high. The positive for the market is the fact that the concerns of investors at the expense of the seriousness of economic consequences on the Omicron variant decreases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) gained 0.55% yesterday, the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.62%, and the Nasdaq Composite Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.85%. Today is a bank holiday in the USA due to the Christmas holidays.
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Yesterday, by the close of the stock exchange, the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.0%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq (US100) added 1.2%. Positive statistical data provided significant support to the market. The US consumer confidence index increased to 115.8 in December, well above the consensus forecast of 111.0. The US GDP growth for the quarter was 2.3% (2.1% was expected). The US existing home sales increased by 1.9% in November. Sentiment for a rebound in stocks was also boosted by news that Pfizer's COVID-19 tablets have received emergency approval in the US. Pfizer's “Paxlovid” is the first approved COVID-19 drug for home use.
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The US stock indices closed with strong growth yesterday. The rebound was observed in almost all sectors except Healthcare and Consumer Defensive. Separately, it should be noted about the confidence increase in the companies of the tourist industry. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.6%, S&P 500 (US500) added 1.78%, while Nasdaq (US100) jumped by 2.4%.
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Yesterday, the US stock market started the week with all three major indices down more than 1% due to concerns over the rapid spread of the Omicron strain, which could potentially slow economic growth and intensify supply chain problems. The Dow Jones Index (US30) closed with a fall of 1.23%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.14%, while the Nasdaq (US100) lost 1.24%.
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The US stock market closed in the red area on Friday. The Financial sector fell by 2% as 10-year yields fell below 1.4% due to concerns about the impact of the Omicron strain. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.48% (-1.65% for the week), the S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 1.03% (-1.90% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 0.07% and became the leader of the fall for the week (-2.89%) among US indices.
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The US stock indices ended Thursday's trading in the red zone. The technology sector saw a strong sell-off, which negatively affected the entire market. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.9%, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq (US100) lost 2.5%. Meanwhile, the financial sector was the best performing, as investors believe that US Treasury yields will rise in the coming months after the Fed meeting.
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According to the results of the FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 0-0.25%. The US Fed is doubling the reduction rate in its quantitative easing program to $30 billion a month. Fed officials forecast 3 interest rate hikes in 2022 and 3 interest rate hikes in 2023. The median forecast assumes an interest rate of 0.9% by the end of 2022, 1.6% by the end of 2023, 2.1% by the end of 2024, and 2.5% in the long term. The Fed raised its US inflation forecast for 2021 to 5.3% from 4.2% and expects inflation of 2.6% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.
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The US Producer Price Index, which shows the rate of inflation between factories, jumped to 9.6% year-over-year (9.2% was expected), the highest level since 2010. Major US stock indices are reduced ahead of the Fed's decision, while Omicron is again fueling investor worries about the imposition of restrictions in several countries. This will surely lead to a drop in business activity as well as a delayed labor market recovery and supply chain issues pushing up inflation. By market close yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.3%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.75%, and the Nasdaq Composite (US100) lost 1.14%.
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The US stock markets fell sharply on Monday amid new concerns about the economic impact of the Omicron Covid-19 variant and in anticipation of a monetary policy update from the US Federal Reserve. Analysts are increasingly inclined to believe that the Fed will accelerate QE program cuts at its meeting tomorrow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.89% yesterday, the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite (US100) lost 1.4%.
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The US stock market closed with growth on Friday due to strengthening the technologies, consumer goods, and oil and gas sectors. The Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.60% (+3.86% for the week), the S&P 500 index (US500) increased by 0.95% (+3.60% for the week), and the NASDAQ technological index (US100) added 0.73% (+3.39% for the week). The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index were Cisco Systems (+2.95%), Microsoft (+2.83%), and Apple (+2.80%). Apple's capitalization is approaching 3 trillion dollars. Oracle shares jumped by 15.1% after the company reported on good results and predicted profits and revenue in the current quarter above market estimates.
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The US stock indices were mostly trading negative yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) remains at the same level by the end of the day. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.72%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 1.71%. Investors were evaluating the latest US labor market statistics. The number of new jobless claims in the US was 184,000, while analysts expected 220,000. The last time, such a figure was in 1969.
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The US stock market continued to rise yesterday. By the close of the NYSE, Dow Jones index (US30) gained by 0.10%, S&P 500 (US500) added 0.31%, and the technology NASDAQ Composite (US100) jumped by 0.64%. Apple (+2.28%) and Disney (+1.64%) were the gainers among the Dow Jones index components. The leaders in growth among the components of the S&P 500 index were airline and cruise companies because of declined concerns about the economic impact of the OMICRON COVID-19.
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The US stock indices continued to grow steadily for the second trading session in a row. By the close of the Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.40%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.07%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index (US100) jumped by 3.03%. The growth of Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices has been the highest since early March. The optimism returned to the world markets due to a decrease in concerns about the influence of the new strain of coronavirus on the global economy. But there was also negative news. Studies have shown a 40-fold decrease in the neutralizing ability of Pfizer vaccines for the omicron strain. As a result, the Omicron COVID-19 strain is less serious, but the existing vaccines will not provide complete protection against it.
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Omicron's latest research suggests that the new strain of the coronavirus is less dangerous than expected. The US stock indices closed higher on Monday as easing concerns about the impact of the Omicron Covid-19 strain resumed investor views on cyclical and technology stocks. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) increased by 1.87%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.17% and the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100) increased by 0.93%.
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Last week on Friday, investors' attention was focused on US nonfarm payrolls data. The labor market statistics were disappointing. The US economy added only 210,000 jobs in November (against 533,000 expected), while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%. Also, last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank will probably discuss reducing its stimulus program more quickly at its meeting later this month. A lot will depend on US inflation data due, which will be published later this week. Analysts are predicting a rise in inflation to 6.7% in annual terms. The acceleration of inflation may strengthen expectations of a faster reduction of QE by the Fed. The US stock market fell again on Friday. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.17% (-4.14% for the week), S&P500 (US500) decreased by 0.84% (-2.27% for the week), and NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.92% (-4.14% for the week) and became the fall leader among the major US indices. Stocks sold off due to the twin uncertainties over the Omicron strain and the prospect of a faster reduction in the Federal Reserve's stimulus program.
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The ADP employment report showed that the US labor market is recovering despite high inflation. But 5 million more new jobs are needed to reach pre-pandemic levels. The ISM manufacturing activity index also showed improvement. The US stock market ended trading higher. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 1.82%, S&P 500 (US500) added 1.42%, NASDAQ Composite (US100) jumped by 0.83%. The US will release an important nonfarm payrolls report today. Analysts are confident that whatever data is released today, the decision to reduce stimulus more quickly will be made at the next meeting since high inflation leaves the Fed with no other choice.
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The US stock indices are negative again as the first Omicron case in the US caused more uncertainty. Although the potential appearance of Omiсron in the United States was expected, the official announcement was enough to send the market into a decline, which had previously been quite positive. Overall, investor sentiment was dampened by new concerns over the Omicron coronavirus variant and statements by Jerome Powell that the Fed was ready to accelerate the process of reducing the stimulation program. It could mean interest rates hikes sooner than expected. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.34% by market close, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 1.18%, the Nasdaq (US100) lost 1.83%.
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Fed chief Jerome Powell indicated in his speech to the US Senate that the US central bank could fully reduce large-scale bond purchases in two weeks, referring to a strong economy. Powell's statement was received negatively by traders, leading to a sharp strengthening of the dollar index and a decline in major stock indices worldwide. By the end of the trading session on Tuesday, Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 1.86% (-3.98% for the month), S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.90% (-1.01% for the month), and the tech index Nasdaq (US100) decreased by 1.55% (-0.37% for the month).
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On Monday, the US stock indices closed on a positive note but began a sharp decline today amid news that the Omicron strain of the virus is resistant to existing vaccines. According to the WHO, the probability of further global spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain is high. Many analysts already agree that stock markets are no longer in fear of stimulus cuts and interest rate hikes at the moment. Because of the Covid-19 "sudden" mutations, stimulus cuts and rate hikes can be delayed - indicating that inflation will continue to rise over the medium term.
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The US stock market closed Friday in the red zone. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones decreased by 2.53% (-2.73% for the week), S&P 500 dropped 2.27% (-2.42% for the week), NASDAQ technology index lost 2.23% (-3.43% for the week) and became the leader of the fall among the main US indices. But the stocks of energy, financial, and tourism companies took the heaviest hit, which was caused by the detection of a new strain of coronavirus. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), also called Wall Street's "fear index," jumped 40% on Friday, the maximum value since January 2021.
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The US stock market ended Wednesday's trading without a single dynamic. The oil and gas, technology, and financial sectors demonstrated positive dynamics. Negative dynamics were in the health care and consumer goods sectors. The Dow Jones decreased by 0.03% at the close, the S&P 500 increased by 0.23%, and the NASDAQ added 0.44%.
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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.55%, the S&P 500 index added 0.17%, and the NASDAQ index decreased by 0.50%. The Nasdaq technology showed the drop since rising Treasury yields put pressure on major technology stocks. At the same time, gains in bank stocks and energy stocks helped limit broader market losses.
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The US President Joe Biden supported Jerome Powell for a second four-year term as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve and nominated Lael Brainard as Vice Chairman. Such news positively affected financial markets. The S&P 500 increased by 0.51% and made a new all-time high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77%, but the Nasdaq Technology Index fell by 0.3%.
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The US stock market traded without a single trend on Friday. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.75% (+1.46% for the week), S&P 500 lost 0.14% (+0.18% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index increased by0.40% (+0.93% for the week) making a new historic high. The dollar index strengthened again. On Friday, the dollar was supported by optimistic comments from Federal Reserve officials Richard Clarida and Christopher Waller. They suggested that a faster pace of stimulus cuts may be appropriate amid rising inflation.
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The US stock indices were traded yesterday without a single trend. The Dow Jones index decreased by 0.17% by the stock exchange close, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.34%, and the technology Nasdaq added 0.45%. The number of jobless claims in the US fell by 1,000 to 268,000 last week. This has been the lowest number since March 2020. According to S&P analysts, global inflation will peak in the fourth quarter of 2021. All investor attention is now focused on when central banks will start raising interest rates in response to rising inflation.
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In the US, major stock indices declined on Wednesday amid negative trends in the oil and gas, financial and industrial sectors. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones decreased by 0.58%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.26%, and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.33%. The Construction report showed a 0.7% drop as compared to the previous month. Experts predicted the increase in the number of new buildings.
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Major US indices finished Tuesday's trading with growth amid optimistic retail sales data for October and amid the signing by the president of the infrastructure package. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones increased by 0.15%, the S&P 500 added 0.39%, and the NASDAQ jumped by 0.76%. The US retail sales in October increased by 1.7% compared to the previous month. In October, the US industrial production also added 1.6% from the previous month.
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Yesterday, the US stock market closed with a slight decline when the dollar index hit a 16-month high. Investors are buying the USD because of a sharp rise in US inflation. This rise confuted the Federal Reserve's view that price pressures would be temporary and strengthened speculation that interest rates would be raised earlier than previously expected. The University of Michigan reported late last week that the Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level in a decade in November (to 66.8 points from 71.7 points a month earlier). This came as a surprise to analysts who had expected an increase to 72.4 points. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices decreased by 0.04% yesterday, while the Standard&Poor's 500 closed near where it had opened.
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The U.S. stock market ended Friday's trading with growth due to the strengthening of technology and industrial sectors. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones added 0.50% (-0.87% for the week), S&P 500 increased by 0.72% (-0.40% for the week), technology index NASDAQ added 1.00% (+0.87% for the week). But despite a good growth rate on Friday, all three indices decreased by the end of the week.
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The US stock indices traded yesterday without a single trend. The Dow Jones index decreased by 0.44%, the S&P 500 added 0.06% and the Nasdaq technology increased by 0.52%. The dollar is strengthening due to the expectation of a rate hike soon after the Fed ends its stimulative bond buying cuts. This risks triggering capital outflows from emerging market assets, while negatively affecting stocks, bonds, and other currencies.
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The US consumer price index increased by 0.9% to 6.2% (previous 5.4%) in annual terms, it’s well above analysts' forecasts. And this has been the highest rate of inflation since 1990. With such a sharp rise in inflation, investors began actively rebalancing portfolios into US dollars, anticipating a rate hike soon. As a result, major US stock indices fell yesterday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.66%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.82%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.66%.
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The US stock markets closed in the red zone yesterday, breaking the longest (8 consecutive sessions) series of records since 1997. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.31%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.35%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.6%. Macroeconomic data released on Tuesday showed a slight increase in the pace of producer price inflation in October to 0.6% from 0.5% in September. In annual terms, the US producer inflation is rising at a record pace. The US inflation data will be released today.
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Last week, investors' attention was focused on US nonfarm payrolls data and the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced the reduction of the QE program. An interest rate hike is scheduled for the middle of next year. The labor market statistics were improving. The US economy added 531,000 (vs. 455 000 expected) jobs in October. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 4.6%. On the other hand, the US labor productivity fell in the third quarter, reflecting a sharp slowdown in economic growth and an increase in the number of working hours.
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The US stock market traded mixed yesterday. At the close of the stock market the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.09%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.42%, the NASDAQ index added 0.81%. The US Commerce Department release showed that the country's trade deficit increased to a record $80.9 billion in September from a revised $72.8 billion in August. The initial US jobless claims were 269,000 (forecast 275,000, previous 281,000), the lowest one since the pandemic began. Today, the US non-farm payrolls report will also be released. Analysts expect to see employment rise to 455,000 (previous 197,000).
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The main US indices closed in the green zone yesterday. By the end of the trading day Dow Jones index increased by 0.39%, S&P 500 gained 0.37%, NASDAQ added 0.34%. Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices renewed their highs. Tesla shares fell by 3% as the company recalled about 11.7 thousand Model S, Model 3, and Model X electric cars produced in 2017-2021 and Model Y (2020-2021) due to a software error. Pfizer's stock price increased by 4.2%. The company increased net income 5.5 times in Q3 2021, revenue 8.5 times, and improved its full-year outlook.
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The US stock indices closed Monday at record highs. The S&P 500 increased by 0.18%, the Dow Jones added 0.26%, and the NASDAQ technology index jumped by 0.63%. All three indices set new price highs. Investors' focus is on reporting season and the US Federal Reserve meeting results that will be announced on Wednesday. The sharp growth of the euro quotes yesterday caused some skepticism among analysts about whether the Fed will announce the beginning of the QE program cut tomorrow. If Jerome Powell states tomorrow that the cutting stimulus will start not in November but in December, the dollar index may sharply fall.
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Despite the decline in US GDP growth and a weak Q4 forecast for many major companies, the leading US indices S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones demonstrated their strongest gains since November 2020 and set new price highs last week. By the end of the week, the S&P 500 index increased by 1.14%, the Dow Jones index added 0.36%, and the technology index NASDAQ jumped by 2.35%. Many analysts are confused that major stock indexes continue to rise despite many economic problems, declining major economic indicators, and continuing concerns about supply chain issues.
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The US stock market ended Thursday's trading with confident growth. By the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.68%, S&P 500 index added 0.98%, the NASDAQ index jumped by 1.39%. The consumer goods, technology, and industrial sectors were the growth drivers. The top gainers among Dow Jones index components were Merck&Company Inc (+6.14%), Caterpillar Inc (+4.06%), and Apple Inc (+2.50%). The fallen leader was Visa Inc (-2.75%).
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Major US indices traded yesterday without a single trend. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones index decreased by 0.74%, S&P 500 index lost 0.51%, and the Nasdaq index added 0.02%. The traders' attention is still focused on the companies' reports for the third quarter. About 30% of the companies included in the S&P 500 index have reported their results. The profit of 82% of them exceeded analysts' expectations, and the revenue of 80% of these companies also exceeded forecasts. Strong results of the companies are one of the key drivers of the growth of major stock indices. Meanwhile, US bond yields increased to their highest level since the pandemic began.
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Solid financial results of the companies for the 3rd quarter supported the growth of the main US indices. At the close of the NYSE, Dow Jones increased by 0.04% and updated its all-time high, the S&P 500 added 0.18%, and the NASDAQ increased by 0.06%. Investors are ignoring all the rising inflation signals so far and are more focused on capitalizing on corporate earnings. Many analysts were surprised by such good results of the companies, as they are sure that the growing problems in the supply chain will be negatively reflected in the reports in the future. Some companies have already worsened their earnings forecasts for the following year.
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The US stock market has demonstrated growth all last week. By the end of the trading week, all major indices increased. The S&P 500 index added 1.82%, while the Dow Jones gained 1.29%, both making new all-time highs. The NASDAQ technology index increased by 1.69% over the week. But the situation in the US stock market starts to aggravate and becomes uncertain. On the one hand, the active economic recovery and strong company reports can push the markets even higher. On the other hand, skyrocketing commodity prices and high inflation are some sorts of growth limiters. Moreover, some economists think that nominal inflation numbers do not reflect the actual situation. The next CPI data may be very negative, which, combined with the Fed's plans to start cutting QE programs, could lead to correction in stock indices.
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The US stock indices were mainly on the rise yesterday. At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index remained almost unchanged, NASDAQ increased by 0.62%, and the S&P 500 index added 0.30%, setting another price high. The negative market trend was driven by the oil and gas sector and the telecom and commodities industries. However, indices rose due to the strengthening of the consumer goods and technology sectors.
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The US stock market traded yesterday without a single trend. By the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.43% and updated a price high again, the S&P 500 index added 0.37%, and the NASDAQ technology index decreased by 0.05%. According to the Beige Book report, the US economy expanded at a moderate-to-moderate pace in September. However, several Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs) noted a slowdown in the recovery due to supply chain problems, labor shortages, and uncertainty over the COVID-19 delta strain. According to 22 out of 40 economists surveyed, persistently high inflation is the biggest risk for the US economy.
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The US stock market closed yesterday in the green zone. At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.56% to a one-month high, the S&P 500 index added 0.74%, and the NASDAQ index increased by 0.71%. The market growth came mostly from strength in the health care, utilities, and oil and gas sectors.
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The US stock market traded yesterday without a single dynamic. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.10%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.34%, and the NASDAQ index added 0.84%. The technology sector and the consumer cyclical sector were the leaders. The health care and utility sectors were the fallers. The US industrial production declined as the ongoing global shortage of semiconductors reduced auto production, further evidence that supply constraints hamper economic growth.
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Last week, the US stock market closed positively. On Friday, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.75% (+1.96% for the week), Dow Jones added 1.09% (+1.64% for the week), and NASDAQ increased by 0.5% (+2.46% for the week). The Dow Jones closed above 35,000, the highest weekly percentage gain since June. The US Commerce Department data released on Friday showed a surprising increase in retail sales in September. Still, the October consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan was worse than expected.
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The US stock market closed yesterday in the green zone. Almost all sectors of the economy showed growth yesterday, but the biggest gains were in the health care, technology and industrial sectors. At the close of the NYSE, the Dow Jones index increased by 1.56%, hitting a one-month high; S&P 500 increased by 1.71% and NASDAQ added 1.73%.
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US stock indices ended yesterday's trading without a single trend. The Dow Jones index has not changed much, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq adde 0.3% and 0.73%, respectively. According to the Fed meeting, in September, the Fed leaders discussed the plan of cutting the quantitative easing program (QE), holding the view that the reduction of asset purchases should begin by the end of this year and be completed by mid-2022. The reduction in asset purchases could begin in mid-November or mid-December. Fed officials also pointed to risks that inflation would take longer than expected, especially if labor and other resource shortages will be more constant.
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The US stock market declined on Tuesday. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.34%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.24%, and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.14%. US Fed officials Bullard, Bostick, and Brainard believe the labor market has achieved the necessary growth to allow the central bank to cut its $120 billion a month asset purchase program. Therefore, it would be right to start cutting the QE program in November. The longer supply chain problems persist, the more likely inflation expectations will change. However, inflation is likely to stay longer than predicted.
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Yesterday, Columbus Day was celebrated in the United States, but the stock exchanges were open. Only US Treasuries were not traded. The US indices decreased by the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.72%, the S&P 500 lost 0.69% and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.64%. Investors continue to monitor the problem of the US debt ceiling. Refusal of the Republicans to approve the increase in the national debt limit in December will be a "disaster" for the US. But analysts are confident that politicians will find a common ground.
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Last week, investors’ main focus was on US nonfarm payrolls data. The labor market statistics were disappointing. The US economy added only 194,000 jobs in September (490,000 expected). But despite such data, analysts are still confident that the Fed will start to reduce the quantitative easing (QE) program in November. By Friday’s close, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.19% (for the week +0.98%), the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.03% (for the week +1.26%), and the Nasdaq index lost 0.51% (for the week +0.6%).
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The US stock market closed in the green for the third trading session in a row. At the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones increased by 0.98%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.83%, and the NASDAQ index added 1.05%. Representatives of the Republican and Democratic parties in the Senate reached an agreement to increase the national debt ceiling by $480 billion. It will allow the Treasury Department to continue funding the government spending through early December. The initial jobless claims in the US declined last week. The number of new applications for the week was 326,000 (forecast 348,000). It is the lowest quarterly figure since 1997. Last week it was at 350,000. The labor market is improving, which leaves no doubt that the Fed will start cutting the QE program in early November. Investors' attention is now focused on today's Nonfarm payrolls.
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The US stock market closed in the green zone due to the strength of the utilities, technology, and industrial sectors. The Dow Jones increased by 0.30%, the S&P 500 added 0.41%, and the NASDAQ Composite increased by 0.47%. Reducing the QE program seems to be a done deal for the Federal Reserve's November meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has set a very low bar for the labor market in terms of what the Fed needs to see in order to begin cutting the stimulus program.
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The US stock market closed in the green zone yesterday. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index added 0.92%, the S&P 500 index increased by 1.05%, and the NASDAQ index jumped by 1.25%. But investors still have plenty to worry about, from supply chain disruptions to skyrocketing prices and anticipation of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Investors are no longer willing to buy back every stock market drop, and high oil prices create additional inflationary concerns.
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The US stock market closed with another decline yesterday. Dow Jones index decreased by 0.94%, S&P 500 index fell by 1.3%, Nasdaq Composite lost 2.14%. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield reached 1.56% last week, the highest level since June, as investors worried about inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy. Former US President Donald Trump claims, "inflation is going to ravage our country." All of it strengthens the correction in the technology sector as capital flows into the real economy.
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US stock indices ended yesterday's trading in the negative area. Over the month, the S&P 500 decreased by 4.8%, the Dow Jones lost 4.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 5.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have had their worst month-to-month performance since March 2020. Why is the stock market going down? While investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut its stimulus, the concerns about slowing economic growth, rising inflation, supply chain problems, the global energy crisis, and regulatory risks emanating from China are also increasing. The end of the month in the stock market was the time of increased volatility, hedging, and economic concerns. As a result, investors and hedge funds are rebalancing their investment portfolios. It should also be noted that the stock market saw record money outflows last week. However, many investment banks and hedge funds are still urging investors to buy all drawdowns.
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The US stock market closed without a single trend yesterday. The Dow Jones index increased by 0.26%, the S&P 500 added 0.16%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.24%. The dollar increased to its highest level in almost a year despite a possible US default and the prospect of more budget cuts than originally planned. Though, according to preliminary information, Democratic leaders have reached an agreement on a vote on the debt limit. Republicans will no longer block the vote.
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The US consumer confidence index has shown a decline over the past month, confirming that US business activity is slowing as inflation remains at high levels. Consumers remain concerned about supply disruptions, the threat of higher inflation, and the Delta variant of coronavirus that will affect their lives and the economy.
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The US stock market closed without a single trend yesterday. The Dow Jones index increased by 0.21%, thanks to the growth of the banking sector. The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq technology index lost 0.52%. Investors are clearly leaving technology stocks and switching to companies associated with economic growth. This is a sign that investors are expecting the market to rise soon. The energy sector is also in the focus of investors, as due to the increase in oil and natural gas prices, energy stocks are growing.
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The US stock market closed in the green zone on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.10% (+0.98% for the week), the S&P 500 added 0.15% (+1.19% for the week) and the Nasdaq Technology Index added 0.11% (+1.96% for the week). Despite all of the major indices rising by the end of the week, US stocks experienced their biggest weekly outflow in more than three years, with traders withdrawing $28.6 billion from US equity funds during the week. With the QE program cuts set to begin in a little over a month, there is no reason to expect further significant growth in the indices.
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The US stock market ended Thursday trading in the green zone. The Dow Jones increased by 1.48%, the S&P 500 added 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.04%. Thursday's gains in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were the highest in the last two months. With a high probability, investors can look forward to a slight increase in stock quotes until November. Still, with the beginning of the "tapering" (reduction of the QE program), the markets will correct much stronger. Hedge fund analysts expect a deeper correction till December, and then there will be an increase ahead of the "Christmas rally."
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The US stock market ended Wednesday’s trading higher amid the strength of the oil and gas, financial, and technology sectors. The Dow Jones Index increased by 1.00%, the S&P 500 added 0.95%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped by 1.02%. The Dow Jones recovered by more than 300 points after a four-day decline. At yesterday’s Fed meeting, Jerome Powell said that the US central bank planned to start cutting the QE program shortly, but nothing was said about specific dates.
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The US stock market ended Tuesday's trading without a single trend. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.15%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq added 0.22%. The US Federal Reserve is expected to meet today. Amid the sell-off in global stock markets on Friday and Monday, the dollar index and Japanese yen have become safe haven assets for investors. Economists believe that Jerome Powell will give a hint about the QE program cuts today, with an official announcement to be made in November. But many analysts believe the Fed will have a problem convincing investors that the plans to cut asset purchases are not an obstacle to raising interest rates.
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Monday, September 20, was the worst day for the US market in almost a year. At the stock market’s close, the Dow Jones decreased by 1.78% to a 1-month low, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.70%, and the NASDAQ lost 2.19%. The sell-off was triggered by investor concerns about the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande, China's largest real estate developer, and expectations of a reduction in the Federal Reserve's stimulus programs. Also, the VIX volatility index, also known as the fear index, reached a maximum of four months. Morgan Stanley analysts warn that they do not exclude the chances of the S&P 500 to correct by 20% or more.
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The US stock market ended Friday's trading lower amid negative dynamics from the basic materials, utilities, and technology sectors. At the closing of the exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.48%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.91%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.91%. At the end of the week, the Dow Jones decreased by 0.23%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.93%, and the NASDAQ lost 1.1%. Statistically, more than 15% of the S&P 500 stock is down more than 20% from this year's peak. Many investors are losing faith in the ability of most of the market to maintain profit growth above the current levels.
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The US stock market ended Thursday's trading without a single dynamic. At the closing time of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.18%, the S&P 500 lost 0.15%, and the NASDAQ added 0.13%. The technological sector became the growth leader, while the negative dynamics were demonstrated by the oil, gas, and utility sectors.
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The US stock market is declining. The Dow Jones index decreased by 0.84%, the S&P 500 lost 0.57%, the Nasdaq decreased by 0.45%. The value of the Nasdaq is decreasing for the fifth session in a row. The sharp drop in treasury bond yields signifies that investors are preparing for the worst. At the moment, a continued rotation out of value stocks into high-quality growth stocks is evident. The technology and health care sectors are showing relative strength. Energy, financial and industrial sectors are showing relative weakness.
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The US stock indices closed in the green zone yesterday. The Dow Jones added 0.76%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.23%, while the Nasdaq Composite technology index slightly decreased by 0.07%. On the one hand, the market was positively influenced by the investors' expectations that inflation would not accelerate and the Federal Reserve System and the US government would continue to support the economy. On the other hand, Patrick Harker, head of the Philadelphia Fed, also wants the central bank to start cutting stimulus as soon as this year. It also should be noted that statistically, September and October are weak months for the major US indices. The indices tend to drop before winter and then experience a bullish rally for Christmas.
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Last week, investors focused on the release of the ECB's monetary policy plans. The European Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged and slightly raised its inflation target this year. But the ECB will likely start to reduce its stimulus program in the next quarter. Such news had a negative impact on the US market as well. Also, investors are now inclined to believe that the Federal Reserve will follow its colleagues from Europe and start cutting its quantitative easing program next quarter as well. A lot will depend on inflation data released this week in the USA, Canada, Great Britain, Europe, and Japan.
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The main US stock indexes closed in the red zone yesterday. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased for the fourth session in a row. This is not a good sign, which indicates that investors are closing their positions. Many analysts expect the market to fall in the coming months. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic says that the Fed may start to reduce the asset purchase program this year and make the appropriate decision at the next meeting. Only an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases can put off the decision, but the situation is under control so far.
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American employers struggle to find workers. As a result, the number of vacancies in the US reached a record high of 10.9 million. The news was positive for the dollar index and negative for the major stock indices. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.20%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.13%, and the NASDAQ technology index lost 0.57%. Mostly the negative dynamics were observed in the oil and gas and technology sectors.
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The US stock market closed in different directions yesterday. Industrials, utilities, and real estate sectors showed negative dynamics. At the close of the stock market, Dow Jones decreased by 0.76%, S&P 500 lost 0.34%, but NASDAQ added 0.07%. Walt Disney Company (+1.85%) was the biggest gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index. Moderna shares jumped by 4.72%. Apple increased to a historic high (+1.55%). In the US, unemployment payments will end soon, which could have a significant impact on economic growth.
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On Friday, the main American indices failed to strengthen. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.2%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped by 1.6%. It’s a Bank Holiday in the United States and Canada today, so with no important events in the European session, the trading day will be quiet.
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The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell to 340,000, the lowest level since March 2020. Investors are now focusing on nonfarm payrolls data. Economists expect the number of workers to increase by 720,000 a month and the unemployment rate to fall from 5.4% to 5.2%. If the data is above those expectations, the dollar index will rise substantially, and major stock indices will decrease. The US stock market ended Thursday's trading higher due to the strength of the oil and gas, health care, and utilities sectors. The Dow Jones increased by 0.37%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.28%, and the NASDAQ added 0.14%.
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September started with renewed buying of tech stocks, which helped the Nasdaq index add 0.33% and close at a new peak yesterday. The Dow Jones industrial index decreased by 0.14%. The S&P 500 index stayed about the same. The national employment report from ADP showed that the US private sector jobs increased by 374,000 in August compared to 326,000 in July, which is much less than the forecast of 613,000. Such statistics have negatively affected the dollar index.
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Amid a temporary strengthening of the dollar index, major US stock indices declined yesterday. The Dow Jones index decreased by 0.11%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.13%, and the NASDAQ index lost 0.04% at the close of trading. 7 of the 11 sectors closed in the red zone. The technology and energy sectors declined most. But despite that, the S&P 500 index added almost 3% at the end of the month. It is the seventh month of growth in a row. And while the Fed is in no hurry to tighten its monetary policy, the rally is likely to continue. Investors' attention is now focused on labor market data, which will be released later this week. The Federal Reserve relies on employment reports, so very good figures may provoke investors to start selling.
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The US stock market showed multidirectional dynamics. Technology, healthcare, and consumer cyclical sectors demonstrated growth. The oil and gas and financial sectors declined. At the close of trading, the S&P 500 increased by 0.43%, while the Nasdaq added 0.9%; both indices updated the price highs. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.16%, even despite the growth of Apple and Microsoft's shares, which increased yesterday by 3.04% and 1.29%, respectively. The US dollar index is under pressure right now. Excess liquidity in the financial system is driving the dollar index lower and major stock indices higher.
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After it became known that the QE program was not planned to be cut in the nearest future, the main US stock indexes sharply jumped and closed the day at the maximums. At the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones increased by 0.69%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.88%, and the NASDAQ index jumped by 1.23%. The rally continues.
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Investors were cautious in the stock markets yesterday, with some investors starting to trim their portfolios, which caused a short-term decline in indices. As a result, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.58%, the Dow Jones lost 0.54%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.6%. The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will give a speech today following the symposium in Jackson Hole. This verbal intervention may increase the volatility in the financial markets.
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Yesterday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs. The Dow Jones index increased by 0.09%, the S&P 500 added 0.15%, and the Nasdaq jumped by 0.52%. Investors are waiting for Friday’s speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The July FOMC minutes suggest that the Fed could start cutting QE by the end of the year. However, there is a high probability that Mr. Powell may refrain from talking about cutting QE because of the spread of Delta and the fact that Fed officials aren’t unanimous about this issue.
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The latest global wave of COVID-19 is slowing the global economic recovery. As a result, it could lead the Federal Reserve to postpone cutting the QE program until the end of the year. On the back of this news, US stock indices showed strong gains on Monday. The S&P 500 increased by 0.85%, the Dow Jones added 0.61% and the Nasdaq technology index jumped by 1.55%. At the same time, the dollar index yesterday demonstrated its biggest one-day drop since May. The focus this week remains the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the public. If Mr. Powell confirms that the Fed will start to reduce the QE program this year, short-term, but sharp sales can begin on the market. If the reduction of the QE program will be postponed, it means that everything will remain as it is, and stock indices will continue to renew maximums.
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Major US stock indices closed Friday in green territory. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.8%, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.65%, and the Nasdaq added 1.2%. NVIDIA, MSFT, and CSCO stock prices made new all-time highs. But that did little to make up for the week's losses. By the end of the week, the Dow and S&P 500 decreased by 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively, and the Nasdaq technology index fell by 0.7%. The main event of the coming week will be the annual symposium of the world’s central banks’ heads in Jackson Hole, where signals concerning the plans of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are expected.
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The US stock market ended Thursday's trading without a single dynamic. Index Dow Jones decreased by 0.19%, S&P 500 added 0.13% and NASDAQ added 0.11%. The FOMC minutes indicate that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting the QE program at any time, but analysts tend to think it will happen between September 22, 2021, and January 1, 2022. Investors are likely to be very cautious all this time, so the growth potential of indexes will be limited.
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The FOMC minutes of the July meeting suggest that the reduction of the QE program may take place as soon as this year. September is just around the corner, so the labor market still needs better data before the central bank begins cutting stimulus measures. Investors' attention is now focused on the annual economic symposium that will take place next week, where Jerome Powell will disclose the details about the future plans of the Fed. Considering this news, investors began to close their positions partially. As a result, major stock indices began to decline. The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.07%, the Dow Jones lost 1.08%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.89%. Major indices are very likely to trade in a wide price range in the next month or two. After the announcement of the beginning of the QE program reduction, a large correction will take place in the market, so investors should rebalance their portfolios.
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US retail sales decreased by 1.1% in July, while the core retail sales index decreased by 0.4%. Both indicators did not meet economists’ expectations, but the dollar index increased by 0.54% despite that. The political instability in Afghanistan also increased the demand for US currency. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the central bank does not know how the outbreak of the Delta strain might affect the economy, so the central bank is just watching the situation. At the same time, major US stock indices decreased yesterday due to declines in the technology, financial, and consumer cyclical sectors. Dow Jones decreased by 0.79%, S&P 500 index fell 0.71%, NASDAQ index lost 0.93%. General Motors stock decreased by 2.5% after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced it was cutting its stake in the company. Sharp declines in auto sales in July also contributed to declines in Ford and Tesla stocks.
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US stock indices closed without a single trend yesterday. The Dow Jones increased by 0.31%, the S&P 500 added 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.2%. Tesla shares lost 4.3% after the US National Highway Traffic Safety began an inspection of Tesla's Autopilot system after a series of crashes involving the company's electric cars. According to a survey, the majority of investment banks believe that the Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the QE program at the meeting on September 22. In this case, the reduction of stimulus will begin on December 1, 2021, and will be completed by August 1, 2022, after which the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% at the beginning of 2023. Usually, a massive sale of assets is observed in the financial markets after the announcement of the QE program reduction.
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Last week on Friday, the University of Michigan released its Consumer Confidence Index. The index decreased from 81.2 to 70.2, indicating growing fears about the dynamics of the economic recovery. As a result, the dollar index fell sharply. However, the US stock market ended Friday's trading higher due to strengthening health care, utilities, and telecommunications sectors. The Dow Jones increased by 0.04% to a historic high, the S&P 500 added 0.16%, and the NASDAQ increased by 0.04%. The gainers among the S&P 500 index companies were the eBay shares (+7.45%), which reached its historical maximum, as well as AMD (+3.80%).
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Last week the number of new jobless claims was 375,000 (previously 387,000) in the US. The labor market is slowly recovering. In July, the US producer price index increased more than expected as high inflation and strong demand, driven by the economic recovery, continue to damage supply chains. The producer price index increased by 7.8% within the last 12 months; this is the highest value since 2010. The US stock market ended Thursday's trading in growth due to strengthening health care, technology, and consumer goods sectors. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 reached new all-time highs for the third session in a row. Inflation data remains the main leverage of the US Federal Reserve now.
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According to the US Labor Department, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased from 0.9% to 0.5%. The core CPI, which does not include food and fuel prices, fell from 0.9% to 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, the inflation remained at 5.4%, in line with forecasts. Core annual inflation decreased to 4.3% from 4.5%. The US inflation growth is slowing down, easing investors’ fears that the Federal Reserve will reduce its QE program soon. Considering this news, the dollar index decreased by 0.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed at record highs, while sectors related to economic growth rose following the signing of the infrastructure bill. The Dow Jones index added 0.62%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.16% again.
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The US stock market traded without a single dynamic yesterday. At the close of the day, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.46%, making a new all-time high, the S&P 500 index added 0.10%, and the NASDAQ technology index decreased by 0.49%. The rise in Dow Jones was mainly due to the approval of the $1 trillion infrastructure project. The top gainers among Dow Jones index components were shares of Caterpillar Inc. (+2.46%) and Walmart Inc. (+2.13%). Today, the previous month’s US inflation data will be published. A rise in inflation could cause strong sales in financial markets, as cutting the Federal Reserve QE program is the only way to suppress inflation. Rising inflation could also heighten expectations of rate hikes next year. If inflation is lower, there is a possibility that everything will remain the same.
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Despite positive JOLTs Job Openings data, US main stock indices slightly decreased on Monday. The US must overcome the economic crisis caused by the epidemic before the central bank begins to raise interest rates, according to Federal Reserve official Rafael Bostic. Most likely, the US stock market situation will not change significantly, and indices will continue to rise slowly until the annual symposium in Jackson Hole later this month.
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Last week, investors were mainly focused on the US Nonfarm Employment Change data. The US economy added 943,000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate decreased to 5.4% (previous 5.9%). The labor market data were better than expected. S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices hit new all-time highs on Friday. Over the past week, the Dow Jones increased by 0.8%, the S&P 500 added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq jumped by 1.1%. The main event of the week is the US inflation data. The consumer price index is expected to fall slightly after the strongest gain last month. Traders should keep a close eye on the Fed officials' speeches (Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin), who are inclined to reduce the QE program. Optimistic labor market data, combined with projected lower inflation, could prompt Fed officials to begin cutting bond purchases as soon as September, which would be the first step toward a possible interest rate hike.
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Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 385,000. The number of layoffs fell to its lowest level in more than 21 years. It indicates that companies are holding on to their workers by any possible means amid a labor shortage. Today, the investors' attention will be focused on the Nonfarm Payrolls data and the unemployment rate in the USA. The good labor data might raise concerns that the Fed will start cutting its QE program soon. Negative labor market data will cause questions about the economic recovery but will add confidence that the soft monetary policy will remain unchanged. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at record highs on Thursday as optimism over strong corporate reporting, as well as progress on the infrastructure bill and expectations for a strong monthly jobs report on Friday, supported investor sentiment. 340 companies in the S&P 500 index have already reported for the past quarter. 87.6% improved their earnings estimates. The White House considers the option to oblige foreigners to vaccinate from COVID-19 before traveling to the United States.
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The US stock market declined yesterday but closed the day without a single trend. The fall was observed in almost all sectors of the economy. Only some industries stayed in the green zone (semiconductor and software companies). Oil & gas, healthcare, industrials, and consumer cyclical sectors showed the biggest declines. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.46%, the Dow Jones index lost 0.92%, while the Nasdaq index added 0.13%. The leaders of the decline among S&P 500 components were General Motors stock (-8.95%) and Lumen Technologies stock (-8.86%). Shares of Robinhood Markets jumped by 50.4% as interest from the famous Kathy Wood fund, and the popularity of the service set investors and traders up to buy. Because of the growing spread of the COVID-19 Delta strain, traders and investors are also actively buying Moderna and Pfizer stocks.
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The US stock market ended the trading session in the green zone due to good corporate reporting. The oil and gas, healthcare, and industrial sectors were the growth leaders. Dow Jones index increased by 0.80%, S&P 500 added 0.82% and Nasdaq increased by 0.55%. At the same time, there is an increase in cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Many local authorities have reintroduced mandatory wearing of masks indoors, and some authorities want to introduce mandatory forced vaccination. On Friday, the US Labor Department will release its July unemployment report. Experts are predicting an increase in the number of jobs. If the growth of the number of US jobs in July and August reaches about 800,000, the American labor market will be close to the pre-crisis level. It can make the Fed announce the reduction of the QE program in September. However, US business activity indices show that the peak of economic growth is over, and no significant increase in jobs should be expected.
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The US stock market ended Monday's trading without a single dynamic. The Dow Jones index decreased by 0.28%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.19%, and the NASDAQ technology index increased by 0.06% at the close of the stock market. The number of stocks that fell in price exceeded the number that closed on the plus side (1,755 vs. 1,436). Investors did not like the data from the US manufacturing sector, as it raised concerns about further economic recovery. Positive reports from companies do not help indexes strengthen. More and more economists are inclined to the fact that at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole on August 27, the Federal Reserve representatives can announce the cutting of stimulus, which will cause a large sell-off in the stock market.
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After months of work, US senators finally presented a large bipartisan infrastructure development plan of $1 trillion (investing in roads, railroads, bridges, ports, high-speed Internet, electric car charging stations, water pipe replacement, and other infrastructure) that will certainly impact economic growth and labor market. It is a five-year plan. But on the other hand, Democrats want to offset the social spendings with tax increases for corporations and wealthy Americans earning more than $400,000 a year.
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Last quarter, US GDP increased to 6.5% (previous 6.4%) in annual terms, significantly lower than 8.5% expected by economists. Weekly jobless claims fell to 400,000 (previous 424,000), but also below expectations of 382,000. Against the background of this data, the dollar index fell to a monthly minimum, but it did not prevent the US stock market from closing in the green zone. The major indices increased due to a strengthening of the consumer goods sector as well as the oil and gas sector. At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones increased by 0.44%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.42%, and the Nasdaq technology index added 0.11%. But after the market closed, AMZN reported for the previous quarter. The company's revenue was up but below expectations. Also, the online giant lowered its forecast for the third quarter, which led to a sharp drop in prices by more than 7%. Such a drop undoubtedly affected the Nasdaq index as well, which fell sharply by more than 1%. It suggests that AMZN is the driver of the Nasdaq index. Despite the positive report, Facebook's stock price also decreased yesterday. However, Ford Motors stock, on the other hand, increased by 3.8%. The US automaker recorded a net profit in 2Q2021, although the figure is half as much as a year earlier.
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At yesterday’s press conference, Jerome Powell said that the Fed would wait for strong labor market numbers in the coming months before cutting the QE program. Currently, the Fed is not cutting QE. The interest rate remains unchanged. Also, the Fed chair said that the inflation rate could be higher and steady, but it would return to the 2% target in the following year. The situation in the financial markets will remain the same at least until the end of August. Subsequently, the dollar index decreased by 0.19% to a two-week low.
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US stock markets closed in the red zone yesterday. The biggest drop was in the Nasdaq technology index, which fell by 1.21%, while the fall at that moment was about 1,400 points (-2.3%). The Dow Jones index was more stable and decreased by 0.24%. The S&P 500 Index lost 0.47%.
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US stock indices are trading at historic highs again. Corporate profits are keeping the market from even small corrections. US electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla, which reported after the market closed, finished the second quarter of 2021 with record profits and beat analysts' expectations. This week, investors are expecting quarterly reports from a number of US companies, including tech giants (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft). But the real estate market is in decline. New home sales in the US unexpectedly fell by 6.6% in June to the lowest level since April 2020. A Commerce Department report showed that the average sales price of a new home increased by 6.1% compared with a year earlier. Goldman Sachs experts have lowered their forecasts for the US GDP growth for the third and fourth quarters of this year and expect a significant slowdown in the US economic recovery in 2022. Investors around the world invested more than $900 billion in US funds in the first half of the year, more than was invested in all global funds in the first two quarters of 2021. This shows that the US economy is now a kind of "safe haven" for investors. A Fed meeting will take place tomorrow. The main question will be how well the central bank is doing with rising inflation.
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Against the background of the continuing season of corporate reporting in the United States, major stock indices closed trading at record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the 35,000 mark for the first time ever. According to the results of the week, the Dow Jones added 1.1%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq - by 2.8%. The upcoming week is expected to be more intense with the Fed meeting and many important economic statistics. But most analysts expect the Fed to give a clearer picture of its plans to reduce the quantitative easing (QE) program at its annual conference in Jackson Hole in late August. Also, in the coming week, financial reports of a number of technology giants will be published, including Tesla Inc., Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Amazon Inc.
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Yesterday, the data from the US Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims increased by 51,000 to 419,000 last week, the highest level within the last 2 months. But the news didn’t affect the stock indices that much, as corporate earnings of reporting companies are pushing the indices up. But many analysts are sure that good company reports can't support the stock market all the time, and a severe correction may happen in the near future. August and September are statistically weak months for the indices, so according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, the next two months could be a serious test for the bullish trend, considering that the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next month. Any signs of QE cut could send the market into a 10% correction. In its turn, the websites of several major companies (Delta Air Lines, British Airways, Capital One, Vanguard, United Parcel Service, LastPass, AT&T, Costco) shut down due to a large-scale failure yesterday. The reasons for the failure will be specified later.
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The US stock market closed in the green zone yesterday due to the flow of corporate revenues of reporting companies, which led to the strengthening of the oil and gas, financial, and technology sectors, particularly the semiconductor industry. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.82%, the Dow Jones added 0.83%, and the Nasdaq jumped by 0.92%. Special attention was focused on the airline and cruise companies, which are steadily recovering. Today, investors' attention is directed to the ECB meeting, which will indirectly influence the dollar index, as well as to the weekly report on the number of initial jobless claims. Positive labor market data could provoke growth in the dollar index and a decrease in the main indices.
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The US stock indices closed in the green zone yesterday. All three indices increased steadily at the end of the day. The biggest gain was shown by Dow Jones, which increased by 1.62%. The S&P 500 added 1.52% and the Nasdaq increased by 1.57%. Optimism has returned to the markets a little, but the situation is still uncertain. On the one hand, many economies are showing good signs of recovery. On the other hand, a new wave of coronavirus could slow these growth rates and lead to new lockdowns. In the meantime, investors are looking for profitable opportunities in stock markets, as there are practically no investment alternatives today.
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Last week, the number of new cases in the US increased by 70% compared to the previous week and the number of deaths increased by 26%, with outbreaks occurring mostly in those parts of the country where the vaccination rates are the lowest. Such numbers are very negative for both stock indices and commodity markets. All three major US stock indices closed the session with sharp declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing their biggest one-day percentage drop since mid-May. And for the Dow Jones index, it was the worst day for the last nine months. The US Treasury yields also fell, which caused a decline in the stocks of the banking sector. On the other hand, everybody knew that the stock market was “overheated” and needed a fresh breath in the form of a correction movement. Now it is important to watch whether the positive quarterly reports of the companies will be able to renew the growth of the stock indexes. If this does not happen, the correction can be much stronger.
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On Friday, the US stock indices finished trading in the red zone amid concerns about accelerating inflation. Investors believe that the Fed is unable to control inflation, so even though many major corporations have reported high net profits and revenues due to the economic recovery, the fixation of the previously open positions is still observed in the market. Last week, the Dow Jones decreased by 0.52%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.97%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.87%.
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Yesterday, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that the economic situation wouldn’t allow Fed to reduce the QE program in the near future, as 7.5 million jobs weren’t provided to reach previous levels. When it comes to the rise in inflation, Mr. Powell said that the increase in prices is predetermined by the country's recovery from the pandemic and is temporary, but inflation will remain high in the coming months. This year, the Fed promises strong support to complete the US economic recovery. The US stock indices closed a trading session without a single trend on Wednesday.
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The consumer price index data slightly shocked financial markets. Annual consumer inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 5% (the forecast was 4.9%), and the core CPI increased to 4.5% from 3.8% (with the forecast of 4.0%), it’s a record for the last 30 years. This data shows that inflation is out of control and revives investor fears that the Fed will tighten monetary policy in the near term. Today, traders should be watching closely what Jerome Powell will say during his speech to Congress. However, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of San Francisco, Mary Daley, still believes that the acceleration of inflation in the USA is temporary.
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All three major US indices closed in the green zone yesterday as investors expect positive statistics on the consumer price index and that quarterly earnings of major banks will be a catalyst for further growth. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones did not have 126 points to reach new all-time highs. The US banking sector is reporting today and tomorrow, so traders are actively buying stocks of banks such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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The prospects for US inflation and future Federal Reserve policy tightening are in the spotlight ahead of Tuesday's consumer price data (the most important inflation indicator) and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements on Wednesday and Thursday. Concerns about the Delta variant of the new coronavirus are also adding to the tension in the financial markets. However, the S&P 500 Index made a new all-time high on Friday, and other indices also increased significantly. This week, the second-quarter reporting season begins in the US stock market.
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The Federal Reserve will scrap its quantitative easing (QE) program on January 1, 2022. But the US labor market situation is raising concerns among investors again. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased by 2,000 to 373,000, indicating that the labor market recovery from the pandemic remains unstable. These numbers also raise concerns that new outbreaks continue to be one of the biggest downsides for the ongoing sustained economic recovery. Amid this news, the US stock indices closed the day in the red zone. The Dow Jones index decreased by 0.75%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.86%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.72%. However, the analysts are confident that the growth of the indices will continue until the Fed moves from words to actions.
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According to the minutes of the Fed's meeting in June, which were published yesterday, Fed officials are ready to take steps to reduce asset purchases as early as 2021. But the target for the beginning of the reduction of the monthly bond purchases has not yet been reached. There is some kind of uncertainty about the timeframe of meeting the conditions for a reduction. Opinions are divided. Some representatives expected the target to be reached sooner than expected, while others preferred to wait for incoming economic data. Considering the decrease of the bond yields, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at record highs on Wednesday. Technology, commodity, and industrial sectors were the leaders of the growth.
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The Dow Jones and S&P 500 stock indices declined on Tuesday, moving back from last week's record highs, while the Nasdaq increased to a new high. The US ISM Services PMI fell from 64 to 60.1 points, indicating a slight slowdown in the economic recovery. The main problems with the business recovery are caused by inflation, logistical problems, raw materials, and personnel shortages. Investors are also closely watching the situation in the oil market. Oil is usually denominated in the US dollars, and the United States is the largest exporter of fuel. Oil had increased in price for foreign partners, which led to the increased demand for the US currency. The growth of the US currency is reflected in the growth of the dollar index, which in turn affects major stock indices.
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Last week, investors followed the change in the US nonfarm payrolls. In June, the US economy had been increasing the number of jobs for the sixth month in a row, with the job growth to 850,000 against the expected 720,000. However, the unemployment rate remained high, at the level of 5.9% (5.8% in May). Overall, the labor market data were better than expected. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs on Friday. This suggests that investors are confident that the Fed's easing policy will remain unchanged. It is a bank holiday in the US today due to yesterday's Independence Day celebration.
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Today, all investors' attention is focused on the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Positive labor market data can be interpreted ambiguously. On the one hand, if the report is too good, investors may start selling their portfolios on expectations of the Fed's stimulus cuts. On the other hand, the unemployment rate has to demonstrate the number of 2,000,000 new jobs every month (700,000 according to the plan) to reach pre-crisis levels. But the market does not believe in such great optimism as the number of new jobless claims was higher than expected yesterday.
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The preliminary employment data from ADP showed that the US private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, 92,000 more than economists expected. Investors are now waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls data from the government to gauge the labor market recovery. The previous figure was 559,000 jobs, while analysts are expecting a figure of 700,000. The dollar index increased by 0.32% amid such a positive situation, and the S&P 500 closed at a record high again. But investors should be cautious because Friday's positive labor market data could lead to a review of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which, in turn, could send the major US indices into a mid-term correction.
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The US stock indices increased at the end of Tuesday. The CB consumer confidence index jumped to its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, which had a positive effect on stock indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq renewed their all-time highs. But all investors' attention is now focused on Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. An optimistic labor market data may lead to the revision of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, it is possible that the labor market data will be positive but the indices will fall as the Central Bank may raise the issue of cutting the QE stimulus.
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new price highs on Monday due to the growth of technology stocks. Such companies as Facebook, Nvidia, Netflix, and Twitter were the growth leaders. Facebook's market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion for the first time. The second-quarter earnings season begins in the US, and investors expect a strong earnings season while interest rates remain low. But the Dow Jones index is a bit out of whack and is showing mixed dynamics.
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The US Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE) excluding food and energy components increased 0.5% after rising 0.7% in April. The American economy is on the rise, but labor market data remains the weak link of this dynamics. With the gradual economy open, inflation has begun to slow, but some sectors are still struggling to recover. However, analysts are confident that the situation should improve significantly by the fall. Especially because the bipartisan infrastructure development bill for $1.2 trillion was adopted last week.
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The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 7,000 last week to 411,000. The labor market is showing steady recovery dynamics. With positive PMI data, the major US stock indices continue to rise confidently. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new all-time highs. The leaders of the growth are the consumer goods, industrials, and oil and gas sectors. Yesterday, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, announced a $579 billion infrastructure deal (building roads, highways, bridges, etc.). This is a green light for the real economy and a good step to reduce unemployment.
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The US S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices remained at about the same price levels as yesterday. But the Nasdaq reached another all-time high. This is not surprising, as the technology sector has failed to keep pace with the major indices in recent weeks. Overall, the markets calmed down a bit after Powell's speech on Monday, which downplayed the risk of a rapid tightening of monetary policy. The PMI industrial index showed that the US economy is recovering at a rapid pace.
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The central bank is monitoring inflation but is in no hurry to raise interest rates. That's the bottom line from yesterday's speech by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve to Congress. It should be noted that the Federal Reserve is guided by the Phillips curve, which illustrates the relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment. If the unemployment rate rises, the inflation rate will also be high. Once the labor market data turn out to be positive and the unemployment rate falls, inflation will also follow a downward trend.
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The US stock market closed with a strong gain yesterday. The S&P 500 increased by 1.4%, the Dow Jones jumped by 1.76%, and the NASDAQ added 0.79%. All sectors of the economy closed in the green zone, with oil and gas, financials, and industrials leading the gains. Today investors are waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech that may lead to increased volatility and a temporary decline in indices.
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The US stock market closed in the red zone on Friday. The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.31%, the NASDAQ lost 0.94%, and the Dow Jones fell by 1.58%. Over the weekend, James Ballard, the head of St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), told CNBC that the Fed could raise its key rate as early as the end of 2022. Many investors fear that if the Fed starts to tighten policy sooner, further economic growth could be limited. But as long as monetary policy remains unchanged, indexes are expected to rise further until August. At the moment, the biggest attention of traders is concentrated on the NASDAQ index, which is behaving more confidently.
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The US stock market showed multidirectional dynamics on Thursday. The Nasdaq technology index undoubtedly became the growth leader, jumping by 0.87% and making a new historic high. But the Dow Jones fell by 0.62%, setting a monthly low. Few people know that the US Federal Reserve raised the IOER (Interest Rate on Excess Reserves) on Wednesday to prevent negative yields in the debt market. The IOER rate hike causes a sharp rise in treasuries and the dollar index, but this effect, according to experts, will not last more than 1-2 weeks, after which everything will return to normal.
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The US stock indices fell sharply following the Fed's statements yesterday. What happened? For now, the Federal Reserve maintained all stimulus programs and left interest rates unchanged. But the inflation outlook was changed from "temporary" to "stable," followed by the increase (from 2.4% to 3.4% annually), which triggered a sharp sell-off in the market. At the Fed press conference, Jerome Powell said that the Fed is ready to change its monetary policy any minute if the situation changes. First of all, the discussion is about a possible cut of the QE program at the next Fed meeting, as the Fed officials expect stronger employment reports during summer. The interest rate is planned to increase no earlier than in 2023. Amid this news, the entire stock market has shifted into the red zone.
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Today, all the attention of investors is focused on the FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference. Watch out for the volatility to rise sharply. Analysts expect officials to point out a discussion on the reduction in stimulation measures, but the cuts themselves will not be implemented yet, as the number of jobs is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic level. Therefore, it is more likely that soft monetary policy will remain until August.
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The main US stock indices ended Monday's trading in different directions. Nasdaq became the strongest performer, which jumped by 0.74%. The S&P 500 index also increased by 0.18%, while Dow Jones decreased by 0.25% at the end of the day. The technology sector was the growth leader, but the financial sector, on the contrary, was in the red zone. Investors' confidence in the further growth of the indices has become stronger, but there are still some worries before the Fed meeting this Wednesday.
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With inflation slowing on a monthly basis, analysts are confident that the Fed will not change anything and will keep monetary policy soft until at least August. On Friday, the rise in stock indices also confirmed these expectations. The S&P 500 increased by 0.19%, the NASDAQ jumped by 0.35%, and the Dow Jones remained at the same level. The companies from the technology, consumer services, and consumer discretionary sectors became the growth leaders.
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The inflation growth in the United States up to 5% in annual terms was insufficient to change the monetary policy by the Fed. Monthly dynamics showed a slowdown in inflation growth. The number of new jobless claims also reported its lowest level in the last 15 months. Considering this statistics, the US stock indices rose to new highs. The S&P 500 Index increased by 0.47% to a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Index added 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped by 0.78%. Companies in the healthcare sector were the leaders.
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Yesterday, the US indices were trading in a narrow price range. This is not surprising as no one wants to take additional risk, and everyone was braced for the consumer price index data, which is an indicator of inflation. The US economists expect inflation to rise 0.4% in monthly terms and up to 4.8% annually. Core inflation is expected to be 3.4%. If the report turns out to be worse than those expectations, the market may react very negatively as investors will start to close their positions with the fears that the Fed will start to cut its stimulus measures earlier.
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The US stock indices closed almost unchanged. The best performing index was the tech index Nasdaq, which increased by 0.3%, mainly due to the growth of FAANG companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). There is a lot of uncertainty among investors right now because everyone is waiting for inflation figures and no one is willing to take an additional risk before the statistics come out. But at the same time, meme-shares continue to pump one by one.
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The US stock indices remained at the same price levels. Investors are braced for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released on Thursday. In its turn, party disagreements regarding the G7 tax deal are growing in the US. Several high-ranking Senate Republicans criticized the US deal with the G7 countries to impose a global corporate tax of at least 15%.
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Despite positive non-farm data on Friday, the dollar index fell, since the values did not exceed the analysts' expectations. The number of jobs increased by 559,000 in May, which is 90,000 below expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%. Statistics on the labor market have become a great relief for investors. As a result, the US stock indices closed with growth. But on Thursday, the US consumer price index (CPI) report will be published in the United States.
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Yesterday, the US Labor Department reported that 978,000 jobs were created in May, far above analysts' forecasts of 654,000. The average number of initial jobless claims fell from 562,000 to 428,000. On the one hand, these statistics are a good sign of economic recovery. On the other hand, the faster the economy recovers, the more likely the Fed will start to scale back its stimulus measures in order to avoid a further rise in inflation.
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The US stock market closed higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones index rose by 0.07%, the S&P 500 added 0.14% and the NASDAQ also increased by 0.14%. BriaCell Therapeutics Corp (BCTX) and Koss Corporation (KOSS) were among the leaders, which increased by 94% and 68%. The US Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report yesterday, which indicated that the pace of economic growth slightly accelerated.
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The US stock indices closed mixed yesterday. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.05%, the NASDAQ Composite fell by 0.09%. The energy, financial and real estate sectors became the growth leaders. Among the Dow Jones companies, Boeing (+3.12%) and Dow Inc (+2.8%) showed the biggest gains. However, the boom in meme stocks continues. For example, BlackBerry gained 14.8% yesterday.
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The US stock futures did not change much after the bank holiday on Monday. Despite the fact that the US inflation data exceeded forecasts last week, analysts expect further growth of stock indices. The statistics of the ADP non-farm payrolls may have great influence at the end of the week. Negative data may lead to the revision of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
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On Friday, the major US indices closed with a slight increase. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.08%, the Nasdaq added 0.09%, and the Dow Jones Industrials jumped by 0.19%. Inflationary pressures continue to be a major theme of economists in the US. The key inflation indicator (PCE) showed that prices are rising faster than expected. The fundamental picture for the dollar index remains weak.
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Against the background of reducing unemployment, the US stock indices rose slightly on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index increased by 0.12% and the Dow Jones Industrials added 0.41%. The indices have remained about at the same level for the last two months. On the one hand, the soft monetary policy from the Fed is pushing the markets up. On the other hand, concerns about high inflation have not gone anywhere.
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Yesterday, the Fed vice chairman, Richard Clarida, said that the US central bank will be able to overcome an inflation sharp rise while maintaining the current course of economic recovery. The dollar index fell by 0.17% on this news and is near its yearly lows. The US stock indices corrected a little bit yesterday: the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrials lost 0.24% and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.03%.
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As of yesterday's results, the US indices rose significantly again. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.99%, the Dow Jones Industrials added 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite technology index jumped by 1.41%. Tech giants AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA were the leaders of the growth. This week the US will release statistics on personal consumption, which is a preliminary indicator of inflation. Also, there is a heated debate about tax increases in the US Congress.
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On the background of technology companies growth, the US indices significantly increased on Thursday. Investors were also pleased by positive statistics on weekly jobless claims. The number of jobs has been growing for the third week in a row. The S&P 500 rose by 1.06%, the Dow Jones added 0.55%, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.77% by the end of the trading day. The well-known Kathy Wood Ark Investment Fund bought more than 47,000 Tesla shares yesterday.
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The US stock market closed with growth on Thursday. S&P 500 index rose by 1.22%, Dow Jones added 1.29%. The trigger for the growth was the statement of the US Fed that no changes in the monetary policy will be held in the near future, and the inflation growth is only a temporary effect caused by the pandemic impact. On the back of this statement, the financial, industrial, and utilities sectors showed a good rebound.
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On Wednesday, the main U.S. stock indices showed negative dynamics again. Data from the Labor Department showed that consumer prices in the U.S. almost tripled. This is the highest level for the last 12 years. And the Core PPI index (excluding food and energy prices) rose to a level that was last seen in 1982. There is no doubt that all this will most likely lead to a tightening of monetary policy from the Fed. First of all, the interest rate may be raised by at least 0.25%.
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On Tuesday, the main U.S. stock indexes showed negative dynamics, but by the end of the trading day it recovered their positions. At the moment, the investor sentiment is very mixed. On the one hand, the economy is filling up with cheap money, but on the other hand, there are growing concerns about rising inflation, which could stimulate the Fed to tighten monetary policy.
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Last week, investors were watching the changes in the U.S. Non-Farm payrolls. The report was much worse than expected, with the unemployment rate rising. But that did not stop the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices from making new all-time highs on Friday. This is because investors are confident in the recovery of the economy as inflation expectations are not yet rising and the Fed's easing policy will remain the same.
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On Tuesday, Janet Yellen, the newly elected Treasury Secretary and former Fed chief, unexpectedly announced about the possible interest rate hike in order to avoid the overheating of the economy. Taking into account the strategy of many investors "Sell in May and go away", the major U.S. indices reacted with a sharp decline, but slightly recovered their positions by the end of the session.
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Last week, investors were mainly watching the U.S. Fed Rate decision. The results of the FED Committee have not surpassed. Although the FED left the interest rate on the same level, monetary policy will also remain soft and stimulative for the U.S economy. This week the main event for investors will be the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change. The analysts are expected to see 978,000 jobs created in April, reducing the unemployment rate to 5.7% from 6%.
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American tech giant Apple Inc. has more than doubled its net profit by the new report. In the previous days, Alphabet and Facebook also reported positive results. These companies are the leaders of the main U.S. indices, so on the background of the projected GDP growth and new stimulus of 1.8 trillion dollars from Biden, further growth of American indexes is expected.
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On Thursday, despite the fact that the stock market fell by an average of 1% concerning the news on Biden's plans to raise the capital gains tax, the market rebounded very strongly on Friday, showing that investors continue to believe in rising indices. Also, the S&P 500 index was able to update its historical maximum.
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US equities tumbled from all-time highs as investors weighed the start of the corporate earnings season and an increase in the total amount of bond offerings that triggered the rally.
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The main event of yesterday was the publication of data on retail trade in the United States. Indicators declined in February, which was partly influenced by winter weather across much of the country. The market perceived this as a temporary factor of a decrease in demand, and an increase in consumer activity is expected in the near future.
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Intraday volatility decreased in the foreign exchange market, and the stock market slowed down. Investors are looking forward to Wednesday evening when the Fed's economic forecasts will be updated and the results of the two-day meeting will be announced. The market is still looking to the future with caution, suggesting an imminent reduction in stimulus measures.
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On Friday, the dollar index resumed its growth on the back of positive macroeconomic data and rising Treasury yields. The latter consolidated above 1.60% after the publication of PPI data. US producer prices rose the most in February since October 2018 which is a testament to rising inflation in the manufacturing sector as the country begins to emerge from the pandemic.
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On Thursday, the results of the ECB meeting somewhat disappointed investors. Promises to increase the speed of assets purchases don’t indicate an increase in the final volume of the program for 1.85 trillion euros. If the monetary regulator increases the speed of purchases in the next three months, then the volume may decrease. Against this background, the euro reduced the losses incurred in the European session, and by the end of the day increased by 0.47% to 1.1985.
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After a four-day rise of the dollar, the foreign exchange market began to show a correction tendency. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, the government bonds yield declined. American Treasuries stabilized near 1.55%, which led to a slight pullback of the dollar index. At the same time, the 2-year US bonds yield is indicating an upward tendency, remaining slightly above 0.15%.
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Friday's labor market report showed an increase in the nonfarm payrolls by 379,000 people, where there were 465,000 people more in the private sector, while the number of civil servants fell by 86K. There was an increase in the number of workplaces by 90,000 in catering, retail, health care, and manufacturing. The number of people working in the foodservice increased by 286,000, which is the largest increase since July.
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On Tuesday, the statements of Fed member Lael Brainard about the recent rise in government bond yields were considered as the main event of the day. According to her, the speed of the situation development is attracting attention, and she will be concerned if there is a constant tightening of financial conditions, which might slow down the economic growth.
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On Monday, the foreign exchange market lost Friday’s synchronicity. If the European currencies were decreasing against the dollar, commodities were growing. Nevertheless, the dollar index was close to the daily moving average SMA 100 at 91.30. The market is keeping a close eye on this mark, as in the case of fixing the indicator above, there will be a signal to the market reversal.
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There was a little bit of concern in the market on Wednesday. The dollar index skyrocketed to 90.40 amid the suspension of transactions in the Fed. Payment systems that execute millions of financial transactions per day have been shut down for about four hours due to some kind of a glitch. By the end of the day, the systems were restored, and the dollar returned to the opening price of the day and continued to decline.
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Two months ago, the market didn’t expect the return of central banks to tightening policy at all. But the Bank of England provoked a tipping point earlier this month after politicians expressed optimism about the British economy. It is expected that the acceleration in vaccinations will lead to a rebound in growth after the worst economic recession in more than 300 years.
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January retail sales in the United States grew at the fastest pace in seven months, which was well above economists' estimates. According to the Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday, the total sales volume increased by 5.3% against a 1% decline in December. The median estimate of the economists' survey predicted an increase in retail sales by only 1.1%.
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The global rally of shares continued during the Asian session on Tuesday. The S&P 500 surpassed 3950. Japan's Nikkei 225 increased by almost 2%, fixing above 30,000, and has a leading position of growth in Asia. Bonds price, as a defensive asset, continues to fall amid hopes that the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine will help to accelerate the global economic recovery.
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A sudden change in the weather in Texas was a surprise for traders. An arctic cyclone sweeping some areas of the US threatens to restrict supplies from one of the world's leading oil producers. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures increased by 2.5% and surpassed $60 a barrel for the first time since January last year.
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The shares rally was paused on Thursday and declined on Friday morning. One of the reasons was the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. The country's withdrawal from the EU was 6 weeks ago, but it hasn’t been possible to resolve a dispute regarding a trade with Northern Ireland so far. On Thursday, four-hour negotiations came to nothing again. The sterling declined together with Gilts.
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On Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a continuation of the rally in the stock markets. The S&P 500 index reached the level of 3200 in the Asian session, while the credit market remained calm. In the absence of an important news background and a slight pullback in oil prices, Treasury yields are stable at 1.60%.
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The latest US labor market data was disappointing, nonfarm payrolls increased just by 49,000 in January, which is below the average growth estimate of 105,000. The revised indicator for December was even worse, with the Labor Department reporting that the world's largest economy lost 227,000 workplaces compared with a cut of 140,000 earlier.
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On Wednesday, ISM pleased market participants with data from the service sector. Business activity accelerated growth to 58.7 in January from 57.7 in December last year, beating the market forecast of 56.8. The numbers point to the strongest growth in the services sector since February 2019. New orders showed the best dynamics (61.8 versus 58.6), and employment returned to growth after contraction (55.2 versus 48.7).
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The beginning of February for the markets may start with a slight disappointment regarding the global economic recovery. China's Caixin Manufacturing Index slowed in January, falling to a seven-month low of 51.5 when the forecast was 52.7. Production and new orders were growing at a slower pace, while export sales decreased for the first time in six months as COVID-19 resumes worldwide.
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Consumer confidence in the US rose in January as Americans became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy and labor market amid expectations of a further bailout. The Conference Board sentiment index rose slightly to 89.3 from a revised one of 87.1 in December.
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With the extension of state aid, the UK labor market showed more resilience than expected. Although the negative tendency prevails, it is not as severe as experts had predicted. The Office for National Statistics claims that the unemployment rate rose by 5% in the country during this period, the highest level since 2016. The economists predicted its growth at a level of 5.1%. Job losses comprised 88,000, the lowest mark since July. The total number of people who have lost their jobs since the start of the crisis is 828,000.
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Preliminary data in the PMI report from IHS Markit showed a slowdown in the German manufacturing sector to 57 in January, the lowest in 4 months. The numbers turned out to be slightly lower than the forecasts of 57.5 but they still indicate a steady increase. The industrial production index remained in the positive zone, although it fell to a five-month low, as the volume of orders decreased.
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On Tuesday, the ZEW Institute released data on economic expectations, which showed the growth after a strong decline since October last year for the second consecutive month. The index for Germany was the strongest. Expectations rose by 6.8 points to 61.8, slightly above market expectations of 60.0. The outlook for the German economy has improved amid rising export expectations and despite the uncertainty caused by tightening social restrictions due to the pandemic. About 71% of surveyed economists expect an improvement in economic activity in the coming months, 9% expect a continuation of the decline in the future, and 20% left their estimates unchanged. The current economic situation remains in the negative zone at -66.4.
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The main news at the end of last week was the data from the US retail sector. Sales dropped sharply despite the holiday shopping period. The pandemic has forced stores to close and discourage consumers from spending more. Total retail sales fell by 0.7% in December. The benchmark also came out negative at the level of -1.4% versus -0.1% that was expected by economists. The control group goods showed a 1.9% drop in sales, pushing preliminary estimates of economic growth in the fourth quarter down.
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On Thursday, the market was awaiting details of Joe Biden's plan for economic aid. The emergence of detailed information has not yet been able to inspire investors to buy risky assets. The plan includes a new wave of household spending by increasing direct payments. It also provides for an increase in unemployment benefits and the amount of funds for state and local authorities, as well as an expansion of vaccination programs and testing for coronavirus. The need to establish a federal minimum wage of $15 per hour and strengthen protection against eviction of citizens from occupied housing in case of impossibility of payment is indicated.
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It looks like the market has taken a break ahead of European economic growth numbers, which will be released on Thursday. Germany has a rather sluggish start in 2021, and the numbers have deteriorated significantly since November 2020. Job losses have accelerated. If in November it reached -17%, then in early January the numbers show -52.3%. The volume of trade and entertainment services fell by 63%.
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The yield on 10-year bonds continues to rise and gradually renews highs. On Friday, US Treasuries, for a moment, reached 1.122%, which is the best indicator since February last year. US 2-year bonds peaked on December 9th. The growth catalyst was the data on wages. If such positive dynamics continue, the market will question the feasibility of keeping low interest rates for a long time by the Fed.
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The market opening after the holidays looks somewhat alarming. S&P 500 futures demonstrates growth against the background of a surge in oil prices, but other parts of the market indicate that investors are looking for defensive assets. Bond yields are decreasing and gold moved sharply to growth. The mining companies and energy sector are the growth leaders.
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Despite the ongoing pandemic, the year on the stock exchanges is ending near historic highs. Bullish sentiment has lifted risky assets this year to unexpectedly high valuations on the expectation that vaccinations in 2021 will resume economic growth and boost corporate profits, amid unprecedented stimuli. The MSCI World Global Stock Index ended up growing 14% for the full year of 2020.
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Stock markets continue to grow amid approval of the Covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. This move will help the UK to increase vaccinations from Monday next week. Another positive news is the support for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson from the Conservative Party. On Tuesday, party officials said that the deal "upholds UK sovereignty" and requested the House of Commons to vote in favor of it.
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After the stock indexes stopped growing on Friday, the situation with risky assets worsened later on Monday. After the discovery of a new strain of the Covid-19 virus in the UK, which – the British authorities claim – is spreading 70% faster and out of control, investors have begun to flee to defensive assets. The main blow will again fall on the tourism sector and airlines. Thousands of flights are canceled.
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The number of Americans first-time filing for unemployment benefits was down last week, but remained extremely high amid widespread business restrictions to slow the rising tide of new COVID-19 infections and a lack of additional financial incentives.
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Around $39.8 billion was invested in emerging markets equities, which is the second largest monthly cash inflow to this asset class that has ever been on record, where China’s earning is around $7.9 billion.
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The EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that significant differences remain between the European Union and the UK regarding the fishing industry, government aid, and future dispute resolution procedures in the negotiations on a trade agreement.
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The Italian government is asking the European Union to discharge its debts accumulated during the pandemic. The ECB needs to change the priorities in monetary policy and start stimulating the economy, one of the measures may be the cancellation of government bonds redeemed by the regulator or repeated prolongation of a term of their extinction. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the budget deficit of the eurozone countries has increased sharply.
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The minutes of the FOMC meeting were published yesterday. Most Fed leaders believe that the pace of improvement in the labor market will be moderate. There is concern that households with low and average income levels will need to sharply cut spending in the unavailability of further fiscal support from the authorities.
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Yesterday, Fed Chairman Williams said that he expects strong business growth next year. This will be facilitated by the vaccination of the population and the weakening of quarantine restrictions. It was also emphasized that the US economy has already begun to recover, although its decline was very deep.
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Economic activity in the Eurozone has fallen sharply in November as renewed restrictions forced many companies in the service sector to close temporarily. The EU Brexit negotiator said on Monday that big differences persisted in trade negotiations with the UK, but both sides were pushing for a deal.
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On Friday, Fed President of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that he expected a slowdown in US economic growth. The coronavirus pandemic contributes to this. He stated that the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 would be challenging for the United States.
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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson questioned whether a trade deal with the European Union would be reached. Countries are working hard to find solutions that fully respect UK sovereignty, but there is no certainty that an agreement will be possible. It is worth following the rhetoric by the authorities on this issue further, and trading assets with the EUR, GBP more carefully.
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Investors are still focused on the situation concerning the coronavirus and the vaccine against it. The dollar fell yesterday after Moderna Inc. reported positive test results for a COVID-19 vaccine. Despite concerns about resuming global COVID-19 cases, investors hope that a current vaccine could save the global economy. This contributed to a rally in stock markets, weakening the dollar.
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Last week, the greenback strengthened significantly against the basket of world currencies. The demand for risky assets is still low. The US presidential election is in the spotlight. Financial market participants also expect the meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, the Fed and the report on the US labor market for October. Oil quotes continue to show a negative trend.
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The greenback continued its growth against the basket of world currencies. The US currency was supported by an optimistic report on US GDP. The ECB has kept interest rates at the same level. The regulator signaled the introduction of additional financial incentives by the end of the year. We expect economic releases from Germany, the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The US dollar continues to strengthen against a basket of world currencies. The demand for risky assets is still low amid the rapid spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Today, the ECB meeting will be the key event. Traders will also assess a number of important US economic releases. Oil quotes show a negative trend.
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The US dollar shows ambiguous results against a basket of world currencies. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the US presidential election. The new wave of COVID-19 continues to impact the global economy negatively. Financial market participants also expect meetings of the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the ECB. Today, traders will be focused on economic releases from the US.
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The greenback shows ambiguous results against its main competitors. Investors are focused on the final stage of the election race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The growth in the number of COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe has caused a sharp decline in the demand for commodities. Oil quotes have been declining.
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The greenback has become stable against a basket of world currencies. The demand for US currency is still quite low before the US presidential elections. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reported on progress in negotiations with the White House on a new stimulus package. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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The greenback has been declining against a basket of world currencies. The demand for risky assets has grown significantly amid optimism about a new stimulus package in the US. Financial markets are still under pressure due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Reserve Bank of Australia does not rule out the introduction of additional monetary incentives. We expect economic releases from Canada and the US.
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The greenback shows a variety of trends against its main competitors. Investors are still focused on the coronavirus pandemic and negotiations on new economic stimulus in the US, as well as the situation concerning Brexit. Oil quotes are consolidating. We recommend paying attention to the speeches by the heads of the ECB and the Fed.
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The US dollar shows ambiguous results against major competitors. Financial market participants continue to follow the negotiations in the US Congress on a new stimulus package. The demand for the British pound has grown sharply following reports that Brussels and London may extend the Brexit talks. European stocks have collapsed amid the rapid spread of the COVID-19 epidemic.
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The greenback does not show a defined trend against its main competitors. Negotiations on a new stimulus package in the US are still in the spotlight. The People's Bank of China said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions. We expect important economic releases from the UK, Germany and the US.
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The greenback continues to show ambiguous results against its main competitors. Financial market participants continue to monitor the progress of a new stimulus package for the US economy. The second wave of the coronavirus pandemic has come to the fore again. Oil quotes have been declining. We expect data on the labor market in Canada.
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The US currency shows a variety of trends against its main competitors. Financial market participants assess the US president's controversial comments on the new stimulus package. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB would not abandon stimulus measures. Oil quotes have been growing.
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The US dollar is weakening against a basket of currency majors amid Donald Trump's health concerns. The demand for the pound has been resumed amid positive Brexit news. The RBA, as expected, kept the key marks of the monetary policy at the same level. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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The greenback shows a variety of trends against its main competitors. Investors assess the results of the debate. Representatives of the US Congress continue to discuss a new package of measures to stimulate the economy. Oil quotes are declining. We expect the release of important economic reports.
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The US currency is consolidating against a basket of currency majors. Democrats in the US House of Representatives have started working on a new stimulus package to combat the coronavirus. The ECB considers the COVID-19 epidemic as a major source of uncertainty for the global economy. We expect economic reports from the US.
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The US dollar has strengthened against its main competitors. The demand for safe assets is still high due to the renewed increase in the incidence of COVID-19. The Central Banks of New Zealand and Switzerland, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same levels. We expect important economic reports from the US.
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Investors are concerned that an increase in COVID-19 cases and a downturn in enthusiasm for new stimulus in the US could impede global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Today, speech by the head of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is in the spotlight. The "black gold" prices are consolidating.
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The US dollar is consolidating. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the Fed meeting. Yesterday, optimistic data on the UK economy were published. Yoshihide Suga was appointed to the post of Prime Minister of Japan.
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During yesterday's trading session, the greenback showed a variety of trends against the basket of world currencies. The ECB, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The Central Bank has published optimistic economic forecasts. The British pound is still under pressure. We expect a report on inflation in the US.
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Yesterday, currency majors strengthened their positions against the US dollar. The ECB meeting is in the spotlight. The Central Bank is expected to keep the key marks of monetary policy unchanged. Investors will also assess important US economic releases. Oil quotes have been declining again.
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The US dollar has continued to rise against the basket of world currencies. The dollar index has updated local highs. The single currency has been declining after the comments by the ECB chief economist. Oil quotes show a negative trend. Today, we expect the publication of important economic reports from the Eurozone, the UK and the US.
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The greenback has become stable against its main competitors. The dollar index (#DX) has updated local highs and closed in the green zone. Australia’s economy has entered a recession for the first time in 30 years. We expect important economic releases from the US. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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The US dollar has been declining against a basket of currency majors after the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed had approved a new monetary policy strategy. The tension between the US and China continue to escalate. Oil quotes are consolidating. We expect a report on Canada's GDP.
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The US dollar is consolidating against a basket of currency majors. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday at a conference in Jackson Hole. The US currency is supported by the fact that both the US and China are committed to their trade deal. Oil quotes have been growing. We expect important economic releases from Germany and the US.
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The US dollar has been growing against a basket of currency majors after the FOMC minutes were published. Central Bank officials believe that the US economy will need additional financial stimulus, but the deadline is still undefined. The "black gold" prices are declining. We expect important economic reports from the US and the Eurozone.
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The US dollar is declining against a basket of currency majors. The US dollar index has updated two-year lows and closed in the red zone. The US currency is still under pressure due to uncertainty concerning the new stimulus package for the country's economy. Investors expect the FOMC minutes. Oil quotes have been declining.
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The US dollar is declining against a basket of currency majors due to uncertainty concerning the new package of measures to help the US economy. The dollar index has updated local lows. Japan reported that the country's GDP fell by 7.8% in the second quarter. Oil quotes have been growing.
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The US dollar shows ambiguous results against a basket of currency majors due to the uncertainty concerning the new package of measures to help the US economy. China has published weak economic releases. Oil quotes are consolidating. We expect important economic reports from the Eurozone and the US.
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The US dollar has been declining again relative to a basket of currency majors. White House officials and Congressional Democrats have promised to work “around the clock” until they reach a deal on new measures to help the economy. Oil quotes show a positive trend. We expect important economic releases.
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The US dollar has become stable against a basket of currency majors. However, it seems to be a technical correction due to a recent prolonged decline. The overall trend is still weak as investors are concerned about a slowdown in the US economic recovery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Oil quotes have been declining.
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The greenback has become stable against its main competitors. The dollar index is testing local lows. Investors assess the Fed meeting. The regulator, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. Financial markets are still under pressure due to the coronavirus pandemic. We expect preliminary data on US GDP.
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The US currency continues to lose ground against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index has updated key lows. The demand for the US dollar is still low. At the moment, the greenback is stable. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the Fed's decision.
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The dollar index has updated its key lows again. At the moment, the US dollar is stable. Financial market participants have started partially fixing their positions before the Fed meeting. Senate Republicans have presented a $1 trillion stimulus plan for the economy. Oil quotes continue to consolidate.
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The US dollar shows a negative trend against its main competitors. Financial market participants expect the Fed meeting this week. Investors are still concerned about the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the global economy. Gold prices have reached historic highs. Today we expect important economic reports from the US.
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The US dollar continues to weaken against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index (#DX) has updated local lows and closed in the red. Financial market participants' concerns about the COVID-19 epidemic have escalated again. We expect important statistics from Canada and the US. Oil quotes show a negative trend.
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The greenback has been declining against a basket of world currencies. The demand for risky assets has strengthened amid progress in the development of a COVID-19 vaccine. EU leaders have agreed on a plan and budget for economic recovery in the region. Oil quotes have been growing.
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On Friday, the US dollar index has updated local lows and closed in the negative zone. Investors are still concerned about an increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19. The EU summit in Brussels, where the leaders of the countries discuss the bloc's budget for 2021-2027 and an anti-crisis economic recovery plan, is in the spotlight. The central bank of China left its key rate unchanged for the third month in a row.
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The greenback shows a variety of trends against the basket of currency majors. Financial markets are still under pressure due to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. The number of infected has almost reached 13 million people around the world. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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Greenback has started declining relative to currency majors. The dollar index has updated local lows. The coronavirus epidemic remains in the focus of investors' attention. The United States has recorded a new world record for COVID-19 infections. The UK government has introduced a new plan to support the country's economy. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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Greenback shows multidirectional dynamics relative to a basket of world currencies. Investors remain concerned about new outbreaks of COVID-19. The number of people infected around the world has reached 11.5 million. Today, investors' attention will be focused on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for the US. Purchases prevail in the black gold market.
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The US currency moves in different directions against the basket of majors. Investors are still concerned about the start of a new wave of the coronavirus epidemic. The bullish sentiment prevails in the "black gold" market. Today, the FOMC meeting minutes are in the spotlight. We also expect important economic releases.
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The greenback holds current positions relative to a basket of world currencies. The growing number of COVID-19 infections has led investors to doubt in the V-shaped economic recovery that markets are waiting for. The demand for risky assets has weakened significantly. The "black gold" prices are consolidating.
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The US dollar is declining against currency majors. Investors continue to monitor the growth rate of infected with COVID-19, as well as the settlement of the trade conflict between the US and China. The Washington administration announced the development of a new $1 trillion stimulus package. We expect the publication of important economic releases.
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The US dollar is being traded in different directions against a basket of currency majors. Financial market participants are concerned about the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Fed Chairman made ivestors upset with a statement that markets are unlikely to count on a quick recovery in the global economy. We expect important economic releases.
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Investors' sentiment has been improved slightly after the Fed announced the start of a massive purchase of US corporate bonds. Investors still concern about the second wave of COVID-19. Oil quotes have been growing again. We expect the speech by the Fed Chairman.
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Since the end of last week, the US dollar has been growing against a basket of currency majors. Demand for risky assets has significantly weakened amid investors' concerns about a possible second wave of coronavirus. British authorities have officially announced that they would not seek an extension of the Brexit transition. Oil quotes have continued to decline.
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During yesterday's trading session, the greenback strengthened significantly against a basket of world currencies. Major stock indices and "black gold" prices have fallen sharply. Financial market participants are concerned about the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak. The UK has published pessimistic economic releases.
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During yesterday's trading session, the US currency fell again relative to a basket of currency majors. The Fed, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. Oil quotes have been declining. We expect important economic releases from the US.
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The US dollar has continued to decline against its main competitors. The single currency has been growing relative to a basket of currencies after the ECB meeting. Currency majors are currently consolidating. Investors expect the publication of reports on the US and Canadian labor markets.
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The US dollar has continued to decline against a basket of currency majors. The conflict between the US and China is still in the spotlight. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before today's ECB meeting. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Oil quotes have been declining.
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The dollar index has updated local lows. Financial market participants continue to monitor the conflict between the US and China, as well as mass protests in the United States. The demand for risky assets is still high. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the key marks of monetary policy unchanged.
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Last week, the US dollar weakened significantly against a basket of world currencies. The conflict between Washington and Beijing is still in the spotlight. Currency majors are currently consolidating. Financial market participants expect meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, the ECB, as well as the US labor market report for May. Oil quotes have become stable after a significant rally.
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The greenback has weakened against its main competitors. The US continues to publish rather weak economic releases. Washington-Beijing conflict is still in the spotlight. Tensions between the two countries are escalating due to China's national security laws for Hong Kong. Oil quotes have been declining. We expect the speech by the Fed Chairman, as well as the publication of important economic reports.
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The dollar index closed in the positive zone. The tension between the United States and China is in the spotlight after China announced its intention to consider the Hong Kong national security law. White House officials, in turn, said that the law could lead to US sanctions. The single currency is under pressure after the release of the last ECB meeting account.
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The US dollar has strengthened again relative to a basket of currency majors after comments by the Fed Chairman. The official said that the interest rate is unlikely to be transferred to the negative zone. Aussie came under pressure after the release of a weak report on the Australian labor market. Oil quotes show a positive trend.
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The United States published ambiguous statistics on the labor market for April. Currency majors have shown a multidirectional response to this report. The greenback is under pressure due to tension in relations between the US and China. The "black gold" prices have fallen again. Today, the publication of economic reports is not expected.
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The greenback has strengthened against a basket of major currencies. The US dollar index has updated local highs. US President Donald Trump accuses China of negligence, which led to an outbreak of coronavirus worldwide. The “black gold” prices are rising amid hopes for a recovery in demand when the restrictions imposed due to the COVID-19 epidemic are lifted.
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The dollar index has moved away from local highs. The coronavirus epidemic is still in the focus of attention. Countries are developing plans for the gradual resumption of their economies. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged. Oil quotes have been declining again.
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The US dollar has continued to grow against a basket of major currencies. The greenback demand is still high. Oil quotes gradually win back the losses incurred since the beginning of the week. Today, a videoconference of EU leaders will take place, where they will try to identify EU steps in overcoming the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. We expect important economic releases.
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The US dollar has risen again relative to a basket of major currencies. Demand for safe assets is still high in the context of the coronavirus epidemic spread. The Australian dollar has been growing after the publication of positive economic releases. Oil quotes have collapsed again.
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The US dollar rose against a basket of major currencies. The US dollar index updated local highs and closed in the positive zone. This week, experts expect the EU summit, where measures to fight the effects of coronavirus will be discussed. The "black gold" prices are recovering slightly after a sharp drop.
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The US continues to publish weak economic releases. At the same time, the demand for greenback is still high. China's GDP has declined for the first time since 1992. There are aggressive sales in the "black gold" market. We expect data on inflation in the Eurozone.
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The US dollar strengthened against a basket of world currencies despite weak economic releases. The demand for risky assets is still low. The Bank of Canada left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. The "black gold" prices have been growing.
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The US currency has been declining relative to its main competitors. China published optimistic trade balance data. The Fed and the US Congress, in turn, "have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse." Oil quotes have fallen again.
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The US dollar continues to lose ground relative to major competitors. The COVID-19 epidemic continues to impact on the global economy negatively. The Japanese currency is strengthening for the fourth day in a row amid continued demand for the "safe haven" assets. Today, the publication of important news is not expected. Most financial markets are closed due to the Easter holidays.
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The dollar index closed in the green zone again. Greenback demand is still high despite weak labor market data for March. Investors are concerned about the coronavirus epidemic. The British Prime Minister was hospitalized for examination due to persistent symptoms of COVID-19. The "black gold" prices have been declining.
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The dollar index closed in the green zone. The total number of jobless claims over the past three weeks has exceeded 10 million, which is a record high in history. Today, investors will assess the US labor market report for March. The "black gold" prices have shown a record increase recently.
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Investors began trading currencies, which are considered more reliable. The COVID-19 epidemic continues to impact the global economy negatively. The US President said that the US have to endure "painful two weeks" in the fight against COVID-19. Oil quotes are recovering.
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The greenback has recovered part of the losses relative to its main competitors. Currency majors are currently consolidating. Financial market participants continue to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. The loonie is still under pressure after a significant collapse in oil prices. Investors expect a report on the US labor market for March. The 10-year US government bonds yield has moved away from multi-year lows.
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The coronavirus pandemic is still in the spotlight. The US dollar fell again relative to a basket of major currencies. Donald Trump signed a bill, granting financial support to the US economy in the amount of $2 trillion. The US President also extended quarantine until the end of April. Oil quotes are consolidating. We expect statistics from the US.
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Greenback continues to lose ground against major competitors. The US Senate supported the $2 trillion bill. The Bank of England meeting and the report on the initial jobless claims in the US are in the spotlight. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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The dollar index has updated local lows. US authorities have agreed on an incentive package to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. China reported a decrease in the number of newly confirmed cases of infection. The "black gold" prices are growing.
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Greenback has stabilized against a basket of world currencies. Investors continue to assess the risks of the COVID-19 spread. China has recorded a decrease in the number of new cases of coronavirus during the day. The "black gold" prices have fallen again. Today, the publication of important news is not expected.
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Currency majors have become stable. Investors' sentiment improved slightly. The US continues to introduce new stimulus measures to support the economy during a pandemic. The Bank of England urgently lowered its base interest rate again. The "black gold" prices have been growing.
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The spread of the COVID-19 virus is still in the spotlight. The dollar index closed in the red zone. The U.S. Presidential Administration urged the Senate to urgently support the Coronavirus Assistance Plan, approved by the House of Representatives. The "black gold" prices continued to fall. We expect the publication of important economic releases from the UK, Germany and the US.
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Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve System urgently reduced the base interest rate to zero and announced the launch of a large-scale program of quantitative easing. A number of countries around the world have announced a stricter regime as methods of combating a pandemic. China's economy has shown the worst figures over the past 30 years. The "black gold" prices continued to fall.
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The US dollar is recovering against a basket of major currencies. The Fed tried to stop the market collapse by offering short-term loans $1.5 trillion worth. In turn, investors also expect another reduction in the Fed interest rate. The ECB approved fresh incentive measures and temporarily reduced capital requirements for banks. The "black gold" prices are recovering after a significant collapse at the beginning of the week.
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Donald Trump announced a 30-day ban on trips to the US from Europe. In turn, Australia reported incentive measures $11.4 billion worth. The Italian government has announced that mortgage payments will be suspended. The "black gold" prices continued to fall.
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Investors are counting on coordinated support measures from the largest economies in the world. Financial market participants also expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. The "black gold" prices are consolidating.
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During yesterday's trading session, most markets collapsed. Today, instruments have been recovering slightly. Investors are concerned about the consequences of coronavirus. We recommend monitoring the current information.
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The US dollar continues to lose ground against a basket of major currencies. The US currency is still under pressure amid the prospects for a further reduction in the Fed interest rates. At the moment, financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the US labor market report for February. Oil quotes have been declining again.
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The US dollar continues to lose ground against a basket of major currencies. The US Federal Reserve System unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate by 50 basis points. Investors remain focused on the coronavirus.
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The dollar index closed the trading session in the red zone. The US dollar is still under pressure amid rising expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates. Investors continue to monitor the spread of coronavirus outside of China. Reserve Bank of Australia cut key interest rate. Oil quotes continue to recover.
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World Central Banks plan to cut interest rates to protect the economy from the effects of the virus. Beijing has reported a decrease in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection. Oil quotes have been recovering. We expect important economic releases from Germany, the UK and the US.
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The US dollar is declining relative to a basket of major currencies. Investors are concerned about the further spread of coronavirus from China. Now financial market participants are almost certain that the US Federal Reserve will cut its interest rate next month. The "black gold" prices have continued to decline. We expect important statistics from Germany and Canada.
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Greenback has been declining. The dollar index closed in the negative zone. The epidemic in China is still in the focus of investors' attention. The US is pleased with the measures taken by China as part of the first phase of its trade agreement. Oil quotes continue to show negative dynamics. We expect important statistics from the US.
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The US dollar is stable against currency majors. The Chinese virus is still in the focus of attention. The spread of Covid-19 outside of China is of great concern to investors. Oil quotes are consolidating after a significant fall the day before. We expect economic reports from the US.
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The dollar index updated local lows. The epidemic in China is still in the focus of investors' attention. This week, financial market participants will follow the statements by Fed officials. The "black gold" prices are declining. We expect economic reports from Germany.
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Greenback continues to strengthen against a basket of world currencies. Support is provided by positive economic releases from the US. The Japanese yen fell to lows in two and a half years. The epidemic in China is still in the spotlight. Oil quotes have been declining. We expect important economic reports.
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The dollar index closed again in the positive zone. Greenback demand is still high. Financial market participants assess FOMC minutes. Oil quotes continue to recover. We expect important economic releases.
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The dollar index has stabilized. The epidemic in China continues to put pressure on financial markets. RBA plans to keep interest rates at a record low level. Oil quotations went down again. We expect important statistics from UK and Germany.
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The dollar index is consolidating. Investors assess the risks of further spread of the epidemic in China. Japan has published weak data on the country's GDP. Oil quotations are rising. No important news is expected to be published today. The financial markets of the USA and Canada are closed due to the holidays.
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The dollar index is testing local highs. The euro has updated two-year lows against the US currency. The British pound has been growing. Oil quotes continue to recover. We expect important statistics from the Eurozone and the US.
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The US dollar continues to grow against a basket of major currencies. Demand for the greenback is still high. Yesterday, the US Senate acquitted President Donald Trump on both counts of impeachment. Coronavirus from China is in the focus of investors' attention. Oil quotes have been growing.
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Investors assess the results of the Fed meeting. The European Parliament has given Brexit the last necessary approval. Today, the Bank of England interest rate decision will be the key event. We also recommend paying attention to economic reports from Germany and the US. Oil quotes continue to show negative dynamics.
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On Wednesday, the Hong Kong government announced that it would limit transportation from the continent to prevent further spread of the virus. Today, the European Parliament should ratify the agreement on Britain's exit from the EU. The "black gold" prices have been growing.
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The dollar index has updated local highs. Financial markets are still under pressure due to concerns about the effects of coronavirus. Demand for safe-haven currencies remains at a high level. Oil quotes have become stable. We expect important economic reports from the US.
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The dollar index updated local highs. Investors assess the risks of the further spread of coronavirus in China. Oil quotes continue to show negative dynamics. We expect the release of important statistics from Germany and the US.
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The dollar index shows a variety of trends. Loonie weakened after the Bank of Canada meeting. Investors expect the ECB meeting. We recommend paying attention to the comments by representatives of the Central Bank. Oil quotes are declining.
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The dollar index has updated local highs. The potential for further growth remains. The British pound is declining due to weak economic statistics. Oil quotes show a variety of trends. Today, the publication of important economic news is not expected. US financial markets are closed due to the holiday.
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The greenback is being traded stably against major competitors. Financial market participants expect the signing of an interim trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. The British pound is under pressure after the release of weak economic releases. Oil quotes have recovered part of the losses. We expect inflation data in the US.
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The dollar index is testing local highs. Investors assess the US labor market report for December. Financial market participants expect the completion of the trade deal between the US and China. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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The day before, US President Donald Trump responded to Iranian attacks on US forces in Iraq with sanctions, not military measures. Optimistic economic data from the United States supported the US currency. The "black gold" prices have fallen.
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Support for the US currency was provided by clarity in trade relations between the USA and China. The economic data from the US was mixed. Prices for oil are getting higher due to the instability in the Middle East.
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The US dollar is losing ground against a basket of world currencies. Investors began to partially fix positions in the US dollar. Demand for risky assets resumed amid prospects for a settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Major US stock indices have set new historical highs. Today, the publication of important economic releases is not planned.
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The dollar index has moved away from local lows. The US published a rather optimistic report on the country's GDP. China plans to cut duties on imports of goods from January 1, 2020. Oil quotes have been declining. We expect important statistics from the US and Canada.
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The dollar index has become stable. Investors are concerned about the risks of Donald Trump’s impeachment. The Bank of Japan left the key marks of monetary policy unchanged. We expect the Bank of England meeting. Financial market participants will also assess important economic reports from the US. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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The US dollar has become stable against a basket of world currencies. The British pound has been declining. Oil quotes are consolidating. Market participants expect important economic reports from the UK and the US.
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The dollar index shows negative dynamics. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the phase one US-China trade deal has been completed. Demand for the British pound is still high. Today, investors will assess important releases on economic activity.
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The US dollar is declining after Fed pessimistic comments. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged. Today, early parliamentary elections are held in the UK. Oil quotes are consolidating.
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The US dollar does not change a lot against a basket of major currencies. Investors are waiting for the Fed meeting to be held tomorrow. Investors expect additional drivers. Oil quotes have decreased slightly.
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The US dollar has been growing against a basket of major currencies after the publication of optimistic economic data in the US labor market. Investors expect a vote in the UK that could decide the fate of Brexit. Oil quotes are declining.
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The US dollar is declining amid weak economic statistics and ambiguous statements by D. Trump. The Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged. We expect important economic news.
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According to the President's words, he doesn't have a deadline for reaching a trade agreement with China, and perhaps it is better to wait until the end of the US presidential election in November 2020. The British pound strengthened against the US dollar amid the publication of positive economic data. The "black gold" prices are rising.
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The situation concerning Hong Kong has complicated relations between China and the US. China has imposed sanctions on the American non-governmental organization Human Rights Watch. This week we recommend paying attention to economic releases from the Eurozone, the UK, the US and Canada.
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The US dollar has not changed significantly. Investors expect counter measures from China after D. Trump has signed two bills supporting protesters in Hong Kong. The "black gold" prices have risen slightly.
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The US dollar is being traded without significant changes against a basket of currencies. Market tensions have increased due to a new decision by US President D. Trump. Yesterday, the United States published mixed economic data. The "black gold" prices are declining. Today, the publication of important economic news is not expected.
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Last week, the US dollar strengthened significantly against a basket of world currencies. The trade conflict between Washington and Beijing has come to the fore again. Oil quotes show negative dynamics. Today, investors will assess important statistics from the UK.
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The dollar index closed trading session in the green zone. Demand for the US currency is still high. Greenback is supported by the growing prospects for resolving the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Oil quotes are consolidating. We expect important statistics from Canada.
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The US dollar has become stable against a basket of world currencies. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the US labor market report for October. These statistics may have a significant impact on the Fed's views on further monetary policy adjustment. The "black gold" prices have been growing.
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The dollar index closed yesterday's trading session in the red zone. The Fed cut its key interest rate range by 25 basis points. The central banks of Canada and Japan kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. Oil quotes are consolidating. We expect the release of important economic reports.
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The US dollar is being traded without clear dynamics against a basket of currency majors. Investors still follow the US-China trade agreement. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson officially agreed to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. The "black gold" prices are declining. We expect important statistics from the US.
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The US dollar is changing slightly against a basket of currency majors. The ECB meeting is in the focus of attention. It is expected that the regulator will keep the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. Uncertainty concerning Brexit continues to put pressure on the British pound. The "black gold" prices show positive dynamics.
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Demand for the greenback has resumed amid prospects for the settlement of trade disputes between the US and China. The dollar index closed the trading session in the green zone. Investors expect up-to-date information on Brexit. Oil quotes have been declining. Today, the publication of important statistics is not expected.
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The US dollar has become stable against a basket of world currencies. Investors' sentiment improved amid news of positive developments in US-China talks. Financial market participants continue to monitor the situation concerning Brexit. The "black gold" prices are consolidating. We expect the publication of important statistics from Canada and the US.
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The dollar index has updated local lows. Financial market participants are focused on the settlement of the Brexit process. Oil quotes have been declining. Today, the publication of important economic releases is not planned.
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The US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies. Demand for the British pound is still high. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU leaders have agreed on a new Brexit deal. The "black gold" prices show positive dynamics.
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The dollar index has updated local lows. The greenback was under pressure due to weak economic releases. Investors expect news regarding US-China trade relations, as well as the Brexit process. The "black gold" prices are declining. Today, financial market participants will assess important statistics from the UK and the US.
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The US dollar began to recover against a basket of major currencies. Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing are still in the spotlight. Optimism over the settlement of the Brexit process is weakening. The "black gold" prices are declining. We expect important statistics from the UK and Germany.
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Financial market participants are closely following trade negotiations between the US and China. Demand for the British pound has grown significantly due to the prospects for a settlement of the Brexit process. The "black gold" prices have been growing. We expect labor statistics from Canada.
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Financial market participants assess US labor statistics for September. Trade negotiations between the US and China have come to the fore again. Investors continue to monitor the situation concerning Brexit. The "black gold" prices continue to recover after a significant drop last week. Today, the publication of important economic news is not expected.
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The US dollar continues to weaken against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index (#DX) has updated local lows again and closed the trading session in the red zone. Investors are concerned about the state of the US economy. There are aggressive sales in the "black gold" market. We expect the publication of important economic reports.
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The US dollar weakened against currency majors. The greenback was under pressure after the publication of weak data on economic activity in the US manufacturing sector. The Aussie has reached multi-year lows. The pound is still under pressure due to the uncertainty concerning Brexit. The "black gold" prices have been recovering. We expect important statistics from the UK and the US.
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The US dollar continues to strengthen against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index has updated two-year highs. The demand for the US currency is at a high level. The Aussie collapsed after a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Oil quotes have been recovering.
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The US currency was under pressure due to weak economic data. Democrats from the US Congress intend to start an investigation into the impeachment of US President Donald Trump. The "black gold" prices continue to decline.
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Currency majors show mixed results. The dollar index is testing local extremes. The euro is under pressure after the release of weak data on economic activity in Germany and the Eurozone. The "black gold" prices have been declining. We expect important economic reports from Germany and the US.
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The dollar index updated local highs. Investors continue to monitor trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the signing of the agreement between London and Brussels is still valid. Oil quotes have been growing. We expect important economic releases from the Eurozone.
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Yesterday, the regulator lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points. The Bank of Japan decided on the interest rate. Scotland intends to stay in the EU in case of Brexit. The "black gold" prices have been growing.
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The Fed meeting is in the focus of attention. Financial market participants agree that the Central Bank will reduce the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points. We recommend paying attention to updated economic forecasts and comments by the Fed representatives. Oil quotes have been declining. We expect important economic reports from the UK, the Eurozone and the US.
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Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are still in the spotlight. The demand for commodity currencies remains high. The Australian dollar has been declining after the publication of the RBA meeting minutes on monetary policy. Oil quotes have become stable after the sharp rally the day before. We expect important economic releases from Germany and the Eurozone.
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The growth of oil quotes exceeded 9% after attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The demand for commodity currencies has grown significantly. The British pound reached $1.25 amid optimistic Brexit news. Financial market participants expect the Fed and the Bank of England meetings. Today, the news feed will be calm enough.
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Financial markets participants assess the results of the ECB meeting. Demand for "safe haven" currencies is still low enough amid optimistic news on the settlement of trade disputes between Washington and Beijing. Oil quotes show negative dynamics. We expect important statistics from the US.
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Financial market participants are focused on today's ECB meeting. The US and China have taken steps to resolve trade disputes. There are aggressive sales in the “black gold” market. Investors also expect US inflation data.
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Investors evaluate the US labor market report for August. The British pound moved away from local highs. The uncertainty around Brexit remains in the spotlight. A key event in the current trading week will be the ECB meeting.
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The dollar index has updated local highs. Investors continue to monitor the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Oil quotes are consolidating. We expect important economic reports from the Eurozone, the US and Canada.
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The dollar index is testing two-month highs. The uncertainty concerning Brexit and the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing are still in the spotlight. We expect important economic releases.
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The US currency is under pressure due to yet another decrease in the 10-year US government bonds yield. Investors are still concerned about tense trade relations between the US and China. The "black gold" prices are rising.
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Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Speech by the Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium is in the spotlight. Oil quotes are consolidating. We also recommend paying attention to economic releases from Canada.
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According to the minutes, Fed officials abandoned any forecasting of future policies. The regulator will focus on future economic releases. At the same time, US President, Donald Trump, continues to criticize the actions by Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell. The "black gold" prices have moved away from local highs. Today, investors will assess important statistics from the Eurozone.
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The US dollar holds three-week highs against a basket of world currencies. The US-China conflict is still in the focus of attention. Donald Trump has criticized the Fed again. The "black gold" prices are consolidating after growth the day before. Today, the news feed is calm enough.
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US-China trade relations are still tense. We recommend monitoring the current information on this issue. The euro is under pressure after weak economic reports published last week. The "black gold" prices show positive dynamics.
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The dollar index closed the trading session in the red zone. The escalation of the US-China trade conflict is still in the spotlight. Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged. The US government bonds yield has been recovering after a sharp collapse the day before.
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The escalation of the US-China trade conflict is still in the spotlight. Financial market participants assess a report on the US labor market for July. Oil quotes are declining. Today we expect the publication of important economic releases.
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Yesterday, the Fed lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time in 10 years. At the same time, demand for the US dollar has grown after comments by the head of the Central Bank. Some reports on the economies of the Eurozone and Canada were published. The "black gold" prices have moved away from local highs.
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